Hi all! Welcome to this cycle’s first Cattle Call, which I plan to do monthly, or every two weeks alternating with the Straw Poll, we’ll see how it shakes out. Regardless, this isn’t a poll of the online community, but my own take on the state of the race. That means that while I’ll be mostly objective, that “mostly” is operative—I have biases. And unlike past cycles where I stayed neutral until one candidate had scored the requisite delegates for the nomination (it was simple math), I am not doing that this cycle. You have opinions, I have opinions, and that’s fine! We’ll have a jolly time arguing about it all. So without further ado … let’s start with the 538 list of polls and the RCP polling averages:
1. Joe Biden
Yeah, I’ve been arguing that his time at the top is limited, that he’s sitting in the mid- to high-30s because of his name recognition, the Obama nostalgia factor, and the general lack of focus on the primary from regular people (in other words, not us political junkies). The fact that he’s only in the 30s is not a good sign, and the fact that the bulk of his support comes from African Americans also doesn’t bode well. Hillary Clinton was winning black voters in 2008 until Barack Obama won Iowa and sent a signal to those voters that they had a credible black candidate to support. Kamala Harris’s strategy is to scoop up those voters, and she has a more compelling case to be made for them than Biden. (Heck, even Cory Booker might have a moment in this campaign!)
It’s hard to see Biden growing his support from here. The Sanders campaign strategy is to head into a brokered convention with 30 percent of the vote and somehow emerging with the nomination. Biden has the better line on that strategy, assuming no one gets to 50. But the field will eventually narrow, and if Biden maintains any modicum of strong support, an “anti-Biden” will eventually consolidate the opposition. I don’t like his long-term chances.
But for now, even if his announcement bump has retreated some, no one is close to Biden, hence, he is the clear and undisputed number one.
2. Bernie Sanders
Sanders has some of the same strengths and weaknesses of Biden—he’s universally well-known, with a solid base of support built on previous campaigns. But how does he grow beyond that core base, and one that is much smaller than Biden’s in the mid- to high-teens? In fact, Bernie engenders more resistance than any other Democrat running, with 28% of Democrats in one poll saying that they wouldn’t consider his candidacy. (Biden’s 20% “not considering” was also among the highest.) Furthermore, given his resistance to changing his message to appeal to a broader electorate, his path to even 30% looks tough. Oh, and he’s bleeding youth support. This isn’t a binary choice like in 2016. The field is full of attractive candidates, most who aren’t as polarizing.
All that said, all the other campaigns would kill for a base of support as loyal as Bernie’s, making it impossible to dismiss him, and he still enjoys a healthy lead over the third-place candidate in the polling aggregate.
3. Elizabeth Warren
Warren has slowly and steadily crept from around 5% in the polling aggregate, to double that today (and people are noticing). She has certainly gained big ground in the Daily Kos Straw Poll.
I used to say that she’d made these gains without a cheap viral moment or two, that it was growth built on a solid foundation of substance. So much substance. Lapping the field substance.
Take all the other candidates combined, and they haven’t generated as much substance as Warren. And people who care about that are rewarding her for her substance. “I’ve got a plan for that” has justifiably become her brand. Does that trump anything at all in politics, like personality, demographics, and style? No. It might be last on the list. Look who is president. But it certainly helps set her apart from the crowd. And she isn’t lacking in those other categories either.
And I can’t say “no cheap viral moments” anymore, as her “call me” moment has exploded across the Twitterverse. (And yes, I know that “cheap” sounds derogatory, so you can substitute “fun” if you want.)
Warren is in a good place at the moment, being considered by more Democratic primary voters except for Biden.
So what is her best path? Ironically, it might be for Biden to remain strong, thus forcing a field consolidation behind the strongest “anti-Biden.” Bernie is too divisive for that role, too many of the other candidates are simply lacking traction. Kamala Harris could play that role, too. So it’s not a guaranteed path to the nomination, but it might be her best.
4. Pete Buttigieg
I’ve been obviously dismissive of Buttigieg as a small-liberal-collegetown mayor with a dearth of actual governing experience and little to no substance. (Seriously, still no issues page?) All that said, Buttigieg has become a real player in the race even though he’s a small-liberal-collegetown mayor! Holy shit that’s impressive, in a field full of senators and governors and congresscritters!
Buttigieg clearly has solid political chops, and a resume that is already impressive in its own right. As hard as I’ve been on him, I do love how he’s energized people and gotten them excited about his candidacy.
Harris has actually overtaken him in the RCP polling aggregate, as his average slips two points from its high in early May, from 8.4% to 6.2% of the vote. But even at that point, the buzz and energy he generated was impressive.
I also love Buttigieg because he kills whatever final arguments exist for the Iowa and New Hampshire duopoly. Supposedly, they claim, the small states allow for the kind of retail politics that boost underdog candidates. Well, could there be any more underdog-type candidate than Buttigieg? And yet he burst into the national scene thanks to social media, a strong appearance at a conference that went viral, and this deft new world of online organizing. That skill is far more valuable in a general election than any skills in kissing babies and shaking the hands of voters at diners.
I want him as governor of Indiana, or its next senator. And if he decides to run for either of those offices next cycle (neither are open this one), what he’s shown this year will open up a massive fundraising spigot that I’ll be happy to join.
5. Kamala Harris
Harris has been quiet as of late, and that silence has hit her polling averages. In late February she was at 12.3%, now she’s at 8%. But this is all calm-before-the-storm stuff, as she (like all candidates not-named “Warren”) are busy fundraising for the big battles ahead.
I’ve long considered Harris the most-likely to win the nomination based on the excellent ratio between her (still low) name recognition and (significant) support. She has tremendous upside as people get to know her, and a huge pool of potential support in the black community if she can sell herself as a credible threat for the nomination. Delegate-rich California will provide a solid delegate count to build on, and she has the potential to play well on the West Coast (home-region advantage) and the South (strong black vote).
This inaugural fifth place ranking is based less on where I think she’ll be, and 100% on where she is today. When voting begins, she will definitely be in the top four.
Also, when I say “most likely to win the nomination,” I mean she has like a 20% chance of winning. No individual candidate has good odds of winning, but someone must! It’s what makes this race so fun.
All the rest
The field has 18 other also-rans. Of the ones who rate any support, Beto O’Rourke is under 4%, a stunning bust given his launch hype. He would’ve been a national hero running for Senate against John Cornyn. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar are in the 1-2% range, failing thus far to gain any traction. Booker has a history of fun viral moments, so he may still have his day in the sun. But few are buying Klobuchar’s “why can’t we all get along?” schtick.
Kristen Gillibrand has been a surprising non-factor, seemingly punished for her role in pushing Al Franken’s resignation. It’s a shame, because she did the right thing. (And likely helped win the Senate seat in Alabama at a time when Republicans were trying to create false equivalency between Franken and Roy Moore’s creepy child-molesting behavior.)
Right now, we have a five-candidate race.
