The latest results are in, and Bernie Sanders scored a 9-point victory over second-place Elizabeth Warren. Kamala Harris has ridden consistent support to a third-place finish as Joe Biden continues to fade. With the Mueller Bombshell dominating the news, turnout was the worst since mid-April as people focused on more important matters. In addition, while we normally send two emails to our list (around 4 million strong) plus a text to our SMS list asking people to vote, we did only a fraction of that yesterday. Again, Mueller was the big news, and it was all-hands-on-deck covering the big news.
So what does this tell us? What we definitely already know—Bernie has the most motivated and committed supporters of any candidate, and it’s not even close. We also confirmed what we’ve consistently seen: that as far as Daily Kos is concerned, it’s a five-candidate race. While I included 14 of the 22 candidates in the race, only the candidates above, plus Pete Buttigieg, hit the 2 percent mark to avoid relegation.
|
5/29 |
5/14 |
5/1 |
4/15 |
4/2 |
3/18 |
2/18 |
2/5 |
1/22 |
1/8 |
BERNIE SANDERS |
34 |
26 |
34 |
40 |
33 |
38 |
44 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
ELIZABETH WARREN |
25 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
17 |
18 |
22 |
Kamala Harris |
11 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
27 |
27 |
14 |
JOE BIDEN |
10 |
14 |
18 |
5 |
8 |
- |
8 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
PETE BUTTIGIEG |
9 |
9 |
10 |
21 |
18 |
6 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Jay Inslee |
<2 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BETO O’ROURKE |
<2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
UNSURE |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
OTHER |
~4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
9
|
(SAMPLE SIZE) |
39.8K |
60K |
53.1K |
35.5K |
40.2K |
52.5K |
56K |
42.2K |
28K |
35.5K |
Of the relegated candidates, Jay Inslee came closest to surviving. Beto is gone, relegated for the first time since he was included, a remarkable collapse from the 15 percent he earned after his announcement.
Also relegated this poll: Andrew Yang, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard, Julian Castro, and—hilariously—Bill de Blasio, who only got 31 votes out of nearly 40,000 cast. His is, without a doubt, the dumbest of the candidacies in this crazy field.
Other interesting notes—Bernie won the month, sure, but his lead was single-digit the entire month. He’s not the dominant netroots candidate he was in 2015-2016. The online vote is definitely up for grabs. And I’m definitely struck at how consistent support for Buttigieg and Harris have been—scoring the exact same percentage both polls this month despite a dramatic difference in turnout (60K vs 40K). It definitely feels as if they have a solid base to work with.