The latest poll from Economist/YouGov has: (parentheses show change since last poll, one week earlier)
Biden: 26% (-1)
Warren: 16 (+5)
Sanders: 12 (-4)
Buttigieg: 8 (-1)
Harris: 6 (-1)
O'Rourke: 3 (+1)
Obviously, it’s a big deal to see Warren in second place. But the good news for Warren continues. For instance, they asked Democratic primary intended voters to list all the candidates they were considering supporting / would be disappointed to see win. Here are those numbers: (parentheses shows considering-disappointed margin)
Warren: 45/9 (+36)
Biden: 50/19 (+31)
Harris: 39/8 (+31)
Buttigieg: 34/10 (+24)
Sanders: 38/21 (+17)
O'Rourke: 24/11 (+13)
Booker: 23/11 (+12)
Based on these numbers, Warren is clearly 1st place, Harris is tied for 2nd, and even Buttigieg looks stronger than Sanders.
Warren’s been doing well in a lot of polls recently, though this is the first big one I’ve seen where she comes in second. But it’s worth noting that she’s actually first place in the latest DKos straw poll! It’s also worth noting that the latest head-to-head polls show her clearly beating Trump nationally; she’s electable, just like all the other top candidates.
Go, Warren!
ps. Personally, I think Warren’s running a great campaign. I’m also excited about the energy that Harris supporters are showing here on DKos. Buttigieg continues to impress. Basically, my point here is that I’m excited to share good news here, but don’t want this to be about tearing down other candidates. So please keep the comments clean. It’s OK to draw real contrasts in policy, qualifications, or temperament, but no dogwhistle aspersions.
UPDATE:
Wow. By this measure, Warren #1, Biden and Sanders at #5 and #7.
MORE UPDATE:
As a statistician, I was a bit iffy on the above “corrected for name recognition” numbers. But I should have known that @gelliottmorris had a real Bayesian model in his back pocket:
Explaining how that works wouldn’t be the point of this diary, but I think the results are something real. So by that measure, which in my opinion is one of the best ways to measure “electability” this early, Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg are the clear #s 1-3; Biden is #6; and Sanders is #13 (!!).
Further update:
Here’s a donation link from comments:
Please donate to Senator Warren’s campaign by using the ActBlue page of the Daily Kos group EWarren2020.
… I’ll include donation links for other candidates from comments if I see them, but I will have to stop watching comments soon.
And yet more:
From comments:
The new Monmouth poll of the Nevada caucus has [Warren] in very clear 2nd: Biden 36, Warren 19, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 7, Harris 6.
OK Let’s keep going here:
PredictIt now has Warren in 2nd place:
Biden 27¢
Warren 19¢
Sanders 17¢
Buttigieg 15¢
Harris 11¢
Yang 10¢
(As you can see from the Yang number, this is skewed towards Silicon Valley types, but IMO not by too much.)