Happy summer!
Yup, it’s solstice time, which means that A. it’s officially summer now (yay!) and B. the days are going to start getting shorter (boo!).
Yeah, sorry, it’s not all roses and cashmere. But you don’t come here for candy-coating. You don’t run from facts, even when they’re somewhat unpleasant.
Oregon Republicans, on the other hand, have decided to start their summer vacations … early.
Campaign Action
Fly Away: As Democratic-governed Oregon is poised to pass landmark environmental legislation that would create a cap-and-trade system to regulate greenhouse gas emissions in the state, Senate Republicans are nowhere to be found.
No, really.
Like, no one can find them. They left the state.
- Relegated to a superminority of the chamber, Oregon Senate GOPers are in a lousy position to prevent the bill from passing the old-fashioned way.
- So they decided to not show up for work, effectively denying Democrats the quorum required to convene and hold votes.
- This isn’t the first time they’ve run out on their jobs.
- It’s a tactic they’ve used before, way back in [[checks notes]] May.
- That time, Republicans fled to prevent votes on gun safety legislation and a bill modifying vaccination exemptions for kids.
- And they won.
- So it’s no wonder, a whole month and change later, Republicans are pulling the same stunt again.
- But things are … different this time.
- Democrats can’t afford to fold again, and one Republican actually threatened violence against state troopers sent to return him to the job voters elected him to do, saying that the governor should “send bachelors and come heavily armed.”
- Senate Democrats will fine their absent colleagues $500 per day, and Gov. Kate Brown has already dispatched law enforcement to track down the fleeing GOPers.
- And no, the flee-to-prevent-votes-on-bills-we-don’t-like tactic isn’t a new one, nor is it one exclusively used by Republicans.
- In 2001, Oregon Senate Democrats walked out for almost a week to hold up a GOP legislative redistricting bill.
- And of course, who could forget the 2011 Democratic walkouts in Wisconsin and Indiana?
… you forgot about Indiana, didn’t you? Everybody forgets about Indiana
- Both of these walkouts were attempts to halt anti-union (and in Indiana’s case, anti-public education) legislation.
- Wisconsin Senate Democrats walked out in mid-February of 2011 to prevent a vote on a “budget repair bill” that would have stripped public sector workers of their collective bargaining rights.
- The walkout was part of a massive, ongoing public protest of the legislation.
- Republicans used a procedural gimmick to pass the anti-union part of the bill anyway, and Democrats eventually returned to the state in March.
- Indiana House Democrats also walked out in February of 2011.
- They stayed away for 34 days and earned concessions on so-called “right to work” legislation and the proposed privatization of public schools.
- So Democrats did it again in 2012.
- This time, though, there was no similar situation in Wisconsin to bring additional attention to their fight and place additional pressure on Indiana Republicans.
- The Democrats eventually came back, and Republicans rammed through whatever they wanted.
So yes, both parties do it.
- But Democrats walk out to hold up partisan gerrymandering and legislation that hurts workers and imperils kids’ ability to get a high-quality public education.
- Republicans are doing it to block bills that expand gun safety, ensure more kids get vaccinated against deadly diseases, and protect the planet.
Just something to keep in mind if folks try to ride that both-sides high horse—it’s got awfully lopsided legs.
On The Road Again: You know how I said last week that ballots in Virginia were set for this fall?
- Well, that was only mostly true. You see, last week’s primaries were held on a new, court-drawn map that corrected the GOP’s unconstitutionally racially gerrymandered districts.
- But the Republican-controlled House of Delegates had appealed that ruling to SCOTUS, and SCOTUS hadn’t addressed the matter.
… until this week, that is.
- On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the GOP’s appeal and allowed the new maps to stand.
- I touched on the benefits of the redrawn lines a bit in this space last week, but since now we know that these maps for for really reals going to be the ones in which this fall’s elections will be held, here’s a quick refresher on just how much Virginia’s new, un-racially gerrymandered House of Delegates map benefits Team Blue.
- tl;dr It’s, like … a lot.
- See, under that old, GOP-drawn, unconstitutionally racist map, Hillary Clinton won 51 of the state’s 100 House of Delegates seats—despite the fact that she beat Trump solidly statewide in 2016 (50-45, specifically).
- Also in 2016, Democrats held just 34 of those House seats.
- That all changed, of course, when Dems flipped 15 seats in November 2017.
- After that election, one Democrat held a Trump-won seat, and three Republicans represented Clinton-won districts.
- But oooh that new map.
- The court-drawn map creates 56 Clinton-carried districts—reasonable for a state that gave her a five-point win over Trump—and puts Republicans in seven seats she won.
- It’s worth noting, though, that much of Virginia’s state House map remains unaltered.
- The court-ordered remedy to Republicans’ effort to undermine the voting power of black voters to create more safe seats for their party changes only 25 of the 100 districts—those found to be racially gerrymandered and the neighboring seats that had to be tweaked accommodate the necessary fixes.
- If you’re really looking to nerd out, here’s a cool chart that compares the 2016 presidential results in each redrawn seat under the new maps and the old map.
500 Miles: While we’re nerding out about maps, my colleague who makes this nerding possible by calculating statewide election results by legislative district has earned himself an extra plug this week.
Y tho?
You know this one.
Say it with me.
GOP GERRYMANDERING!
- Let’s start with the state Senate, where Republicans have a 19-14 majority and only half of the chamber is up every two years.
- Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s big statewide victory allowed her to carry 18 of the 33 Senate seats, but Gov. Tony Evers won by a much smaller margin; he took just 12 of them.
- Sixteen districts will be up in 2020, and each party holds half of them.
- Of the 2020 seats, nine voted for Baldwin.
- Just six supported Evers.
- Only two of the Republicans up next year hold seats that backed Baldwin (none are in seats Evers won).
- So even if Democrats flip these two seats, they’ll still need to take a third to flip the chamber.
- Alas, their options are … not great.
- The most realistic target is SD-08 in the Milwaukee suburbs, which is held by longtime incumbent Alberta Darling.
- Darling’s seat, while solidly red, did move sharply to the left from 2012 to 2016 (from 59-40 Romney to 51-44 Trump).
- But Baldwin lost this seat 52-48 last year, and Evers got spanked 57-42.
- But not only do Democrats need to flip three seats to take majority control of the chamber in 2020—they also have to defend a shaky one of their own.
- In January of last year, Democrat Patty Schachtner won a special election for SD-10, a seat in the St. Croix area, by a 55-44 margin, and she’s up for a full term in 2020.
- It’s not going to be a cakewalk by any stretch: Baldwin lost the seat 51-49, and Evers lost it 54-43.
- But let’s check out the state Assembly, where all 99 members are up every two years and Republicans hold a 63-36 majority—quite something when you stop and consider that Democrats swept statewide elections last fall.
- Baldwin carried 55 seats, while Evers took just 36.
- There are a total of 19 Republicans in Baldwin seats, while no Democrats are on Vukmir turf.
- Just two Republicans represent Evers seats, and two Democrats have to defend themselves in Walker districts.
- … yeah okay the Assembly’s just not looking like a great pickup shot.
- Wisconsin’s maps are some of the most effective GOP gerrymanders in the country, and Republicans will continue to benefit from them until they’re redrawn in 2021—when the state’s Democratic governor has a chance to veto the trash the legislature is sure to send him.
If you haven’t hit your nerd threshold by now, you can always check out our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states. Also, you can find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.
Highway to Hell: The Tennessee House speaker saga continues, in its way.
- Now that Republican Rep. Glen Casada has set a date for his departure from the speakership, lawmakers are jockeying to replace him at the head of the chamber.
- One of those jockeyers is GOP Rep. Matthew Hill, who happens to run a Christian magic shop out of his basement.
- And maybe I’m revealing my sheltered upbringing here, but … Christian magic shops are things that exist?
- Well, Dock Haley Gospel Magic very much exists, except it kind of doesn’t, since Hill hasn’t registered it as a business in Tennessee.
- Which also means he hasn’t been paying any taxes on it.
- Nor has he ever revealed its existence on his legislative disclosure forms, which require reporting of all sources of income over $200.
womp womp
Welp, that’s all for this week. It’s time to enjoy the extra daylight while it lasts. You should knock off early, too. Get a jump on your weekend/vacation/grail quest/whatever. Just print this out and show it to your boss, I’m sure she won’t mind.