The fact that the United States did not launch a military strike on Iran over the loss of a flying toaster. That’s a good thing. But the fact that such an attack was ordered, then paused, and no one seems to know if or when it will be be ordered up again … that’s not good. Not good at all.
Donald Trump’s story of how he ordered a strike on Iran, then called off his strike on Iran, because he forgot to ask about a little thing like how many people would die until the missiles were warming up, was a painfully ugly story to begin with. But it was also clear from the outset that Trump’s account that he stopped the attack right on the brink, his claims about a super-solicitous general, and his shifting statements about the status of the operation at the time he issued a halt, all add to a picture of absolute confusion in a situation fraught with danger.
A full-on war with Iran would be incredibly dangerous. Not because the United States would “lose” such a conflict, but because the result would almost certainly be tens of thousands, and possibly hundreds of thousands, of civilians killed. And those deaths wouldn’t necessarily be restricted to Iran.
Iran’s military is in no-sense the non-entity that Iraq’s was in 2003. As the shoot down of the Global Hawk drone demonstrated this past week, some of Iran’s home-grown missile defense system works. Portions of these mobile, truck-based systems might even survive a first wave of attacks long enough to direct fire at U.S. planes. An all out assault on Iran would be unlikely to end with Tehran Bob running from a press conference as the tanks rolled in on day three.
Of course, the intention of an assault like that ordered up by Trump was something less than a full-scale invasion. Only … haven’t Trump, and John Bolton, and Mike Pompeo spent the last two years bemoaning how Iran has agents and terrorists and proxy forces everywhere? If the threat from Iran is one-tenth what they’ve been trotting in front of the press all this time, then a limited assault on Iran would seem to be inviting retaliation that could come almost anywhere. It’s the sort of situation where “limited assault” is the same as dancing on the edge of a cliff labeled “all out war.” Blindfolded.
Multiple times during the 2016 campaign, Trump touted his fondness for “surprise” when it comes to military strategy. For keeping everyone guessing. But this week he made it clear that “everyone” includes Congress, the U.S. military, and Donald Trump.
As The Washington Post reports, Trump’s start-stop action confounded both congressional and military leaders on both ends. The idea that Iran should be hit over a drone that was taken down within single digit miles of Iran’s airspace, one way or the other, seemed a poor reason to risk an expansive war—even for the people whose job it is to win wars. But for those like Bolton, who just wants to see Iran burn, any excuse is a good excuse. Congressional leaders warned Trump not to order an attack. But it seems likely that by the time Trump invited them in to discuss the situation, he had already set the ships in motion.
And then Trump called things off because … because … Whatever the reason, it most certainly was not because some general gave Trump a snappy salute and reported that there would be actual lives lost in retaliation for a machine. Trump absolutely, definitely was given the casualty estimates before the mission was launched. The whole “sir, 150 causalities” story was an absolute lie. What’s really confusing to everyone around Trump is that they don’t even know what that lie is meant to cover.
For now, it appears that the Trump White House will engage the euphemism engine and fire up a “non-kinetic response.” Meaning increased sanctions, pressuring allies, and doing everything possible to wreck Iran’s economy. Because driving nations to the brink of starvation and instability through economic policy is regarded as totally acceptable. And there’s little doubt that the sanctions, which for months were more theoretical than actual, are now having a real impact that is driving Iran to desperation.
The U.S. carrier group is not leaving the Gulf and more troops are headed to the region. Iran can’t strike back on the economic front, but it does have speed boats and mines, and several more of those drone shooting missiles. In fact, Iran seems to have taken a crack at shooting down a different drone earlier. It just missed that time.
It seems just a matter of time before some other act will occur that will get Bolton doing his best Yosemite Sam dance, demanding “justice.” And then Trump will do … something. But no one know what it will be. Because there’s nothing at all in place that looks like strategy, or policy, or a clue.
Surprise.