New Zealand’s projections over the next decades have become more dire for climate change/crisis effects. Currently it is winter in the Southern Hemisphere with fewer frosts and higher snowlines. Information on projections of climate change are readily available for New Zealanders online.
New Zealand has become a favorite place for the ultra-wealthy to have their boltholes. Perhaps it isn’t as rosy of a choice as they first thought.
The following highlights are all from a 2008 article: www.nzgeo.com/… [Emphasis added by me.]
NIWA’s researchers [National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Ltd, New Zealand] used the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Report [2007] ..., which provides a broad-brush picture of the changes likely to take place around the globe.
Over the last 100 years, New Zealand’s temperature has increased by 0.9ºC. [This statistic hasn’t been revised in more recent literature.]
According to this regional climate model, for at least the first half of the century we will experience invigorated westerlies, increased rainfall in the west, and increased dryness in the east. In short, it’s today’s climate on steroids, and warming all the time. [Keep in mind that this statement was made in 2008.]
And when it rains, it will probably pour. Every 1°C of warming will mean that heavy rain events drop at least eight per cent more water; one in 100-year rain events could become twice as common.
Beyond the obvious weather-related changes, there is another aspect of global climate change that could have a dramatic impact on New Zealand. Sea level rise over the last 100 years has been relatively modest—about 16 cm in this part of the Pacific—but as the planet warms it will accelerate, presenting significant challenges to low-lying coastal properties as well as expensive city infrastructure in Auckland, Wellington and Dunedin.
But if climate change does continue to be gradual, then New Zealand will be reasonably well-placed to adjust. Auckland might be as warm as Sydney, but it won’t be as hot as Brisbane. The key to adapting to a warming world is to be smart enough to look ahead, and resilient enough to be able cope with change as it happens.
From another source based on the 4th IPCC report: www.mfe.govt.nz/...:
Human-induced climate change should be considered within the context of the natural variability of the climate system,...
Looking at what was written for New Zealand based on the 2008 4th IPCC Report it was rather reassuring. Looking at the 2013 IPCC Report, things are more dire. The tone of a newer article is far from blasé.
The following is from an article which is based upon the more recent IPCC 5th Report from 2013, www.niwa.co.nz/…
• human influence on the climate system is clear…
• warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Since the 1950s, many of the observed global changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia...
Sea level rise around New Zealand maybe up to 10% higher than the global average.
Increase in days with ‘very high’ and ‘extreme’ fire danger index in some locations by up to 400% by 2040 and 700%by 2090….
The risk of floods, fires and sea level rise are the three major risks identified. There will be seasonal droughts becoming more common in some regions. The road infrastructure is vulnerable to rockslides and slips and the increase in wind and rain intensity takes its toll on road access quite frequently. In windier areas, small intense cyclones do very localized but intense damage.
From the same source, I found the following graph informative for the many pathways for adaptation. This was drawn from the 5th IPCC report.
Some solace is drawn that New Zealand won’t be as bad as Australia which will have many more days with temperatures above 40 degrees C (104 deg F). There will be reduced water availability and more restricted agriculture in Australia as compared to New Zealand. But a warning is added from same source just above:
This does not necessarily mean that New Zealand has nothing to worry about in these areas; in some cases, there is simply not enough New Zealand research.