Why is Biden ahead in the polls?
Is it because of his policy positions? Not really. I don’t think most people could actually name one of his positions, except that he’s a centrist. And if you wanted a centrist, how about Michael Bennet or Hickenlooper or that congressman, can’t remember his name? If being a centrist were Biden’s only claim, he would be at 5%.
Is it because of his senatorial career? Biden’s senatorial career was fairly average. I don’t think the average person would remember Senator Biden anymore than they remember any other Senator.
No of course it is because he was Obama’s Vice-President. I guess he was a decent Vice-President although what do Vice-Presidents really do anyways. And there is the electability argument, that people like an affable white guy.
This makes Biden very vulnerable as a front-runner. Because when BIden’s campaign began, that was his peak. The positives of being Obama’s VP, or of being a white guy, Biden can’t improve these.
Meanwhile other candidates can eat away at his support. For example, Harris attacking him at the debates. I don’t think that Biden is a particularly adept candidate. That’s why he never came close to winning the nomination in previous races. He doesn’t seem that great at debating and he doesn’t have notable policy positions.
So my argument is that Biden’s standing in the polls will have a steadily downward trajectory, and there’s not much he can do to change that. Within 3-6 months, my prediction that he will not be the front-runner.