Kentucky State House of Representatives
Below you'll find an alternative to Kentucky's House of Representatives districts. Unlike with the Senate comparison, drawing a district map of the actual lower chamber was not practical using Dave's Redistricting App, since there are too many split voting precincts in too many densely populated areas. Therefore, the images presented here are only of my alternative version. The district numbering keeps to the actual numbering as closely as possible.
Western 1-20, 22-25, 27
The 1st district is made up of Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman, and much of McCracken County outside of Paducah. The 2nd district has pat of eastern Calloway County and all of Graves County. The 3rd district is centered on Paducah and most of the surrounding municipalities. The 4th district takes in part of western Henderson County, along with Crittenden, Union, and Webster counties. The 5th district takes in most of Calloway County and all of Trigg County. The 6th has a small part of McCracken County in and around Reidland, as well as Livingston and Marshall counties. The 7th takes the areas outside of Owesnboro in Davies County. The 8th, in Christian County, is focused on Hopkinsville, Oak Grove, and Fort Campbell North. The 9th takes the rest of Christian County and part of Hopkins County. The 10th combines Breckinridge and Hancock counties with part of Hardin County. The 11th is based in and around the city of Henderson taking most of the county of Henderson. The 12th consists of Caldwell, Lyon, and part of Hopkins counties, including the city of Madisonville. The 13th is essentially the city of Owensboro. The 14th takes part of Davies County and all of McLean and Ohio counties. The 15th takes part of Hopkins County and all of Muhlenburg County. The 16th district has Logan and Todd counties, as well as part of Warren County, The 17th also takes part of Warren County, combining it with Butler and Edmondson counties. Garyson and Hart counties make up the 18th district. The 19th is in the southwestern part of Warren County. The 20th takes in most of the city of Bowling Green. The 22nd takes in part of Warren County alongside Allen and Simpson counties. The 23rd is Barren County. The 24th combines part of Hardin County with Larue County. In Hardin County, the 25th consists of the cities of Radcliff and most of Elizabethtown. Finally, the 27th is made up of part of Hardin County and all of Meade County.
There are a few districts that are now a bit easier for Democrats to win, such as the 8th, which consolidates Black voters. The 25th, which consolidates urban areas, is now an R+5 district. These changes would affect other conservative districts that Democrats currently hold, but they're on borrowed time. Overall, the changes here are a huge improvement over the current map.
Central 21, 26, 49-55, 71, 80, 81, 83, 85
The 21st district is comprised of Adair, Green, Metcalfe, and part of Russell counties. The 26th takes in most of Bullitt County, including the cities of Fox Chase, Hillview, Hunters Hollow, Lebanon Junction, Pioneer Village, and Shepardsville. The 49th picks up the rest of Bullit County, including the city of Mount Washington, and combines it with the western part of Spencer County, including the city of Taylorsville. The 50th district is Nelson County. The 51st district consists of Marion and Taylor counties. McCreary, Wayne and part of Pulaski make up the 52nd district. The 53rd takes the rest of Spencer County, as well as Anderson and Washington counties. The 54th district is left alone; it includes Boyle and Casey counties. The 55th is comprised of a small part of Jessamine County along with Garrard and Mercer Counties. In Madison County, the 81st combines the most of the cities of Berea and Richmond, while the 71st takes in the rest of the county. The 80th district combines Lincoln County with much of eastern Pulaski County. The 85th consists of the rest of Pulaski County, including the cities of Burnside, Ferguson, and Somerset. Finally, the 83rd district takes in most of Russell County, as well as Clinton, Cumberland, and Monroe counties.
This part of Kentucky has been voting Republican for a longer time than other parts of the state. The 81st district has the lowest Republican leaning PVI at R+8. The most drastic changes come to the Bullitt County districts, which are quite messy on the actual map. This would probably make it harder for Democrats to win the 49th, for instance.
Cumberland Plateau 82, 84, 86, 87, 89-100
The 82nd district consists of Whitley County and part of Laurel County. The 84th is comprised of Leslie, Owsley, and Perry counties. The 86th combines Knox County with part of Laurel County. The 87th has Bell County and the western half of Harlan County. The 89th is made up of Jackson and Rockcastle counties, as well as part the northern part of Laurel County. The 90th combines what remains of Laurel County, including the city of London, with Clay County. The 91st consists of Estill, Lee, Powell, and Lee counties. Th 92nd has Breathitt, Knott, and Magoffin counties. The 93rd is in Pike County and includes Pikeville, Phelps, and Elkhorn City. The 94th takes part of southwestern Pike County, Letcher County, and the other half of Harlan County, which isn't in the 87th. The 95th combines a small part of Pike County with Floyd County. The 96th is left alone being made from Carter and Lawrence counties. The 97th takes what's left of Pike County in the north, and combines that with Johnson and Martin counties. The 98th and 100th districts are virtually the same, with the 98th taking Greenup County and a small part of Boyd County, leaving the rest of the county to the 100th district. The 99th district, which is House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins’s district, includes Elliot, Rowan and Morgan counties.
What was until recently a heavily Democratic region of the state, at least down ballot, has turned hard towards Republicans. The seats Democrats hold in this region are on borrowed time. However, there are still areas of Democratic strength that will still take a long time to fade away. For example, the 99th district actually voted for Obama by about 2%. There are other districts which were close, or comparatively close to other districts in the region. The 92nd went to McCain by 8%. The 95th voted for McCain by 2.5% The 93rd, 98th, and 100th voted for McCain by about 13 points each. Today, The 99th, has an R+14 PVI, as it includes a two counties, Rowan and Elliot, that still vote Democratic down ballot, making it the most Democratic district left in the region.
Bluegrass 33, 39, 45, 47, 56-70, 72-79, 88
Starting off, the 33rd district is contained entirely in Oldham County; the 39th in Jessamine County. The 45th is based in the southwestern corner of Fayette County. The 47th takes part of Boone County, and all of Carroll and Gallatin counties. Outside of Lexington, the 56th takes most of Scott County and all of Woodford County. The 57th consists of most of Franklin County. The 58th is Shelby County. The 59th takes the rest of Oldham County excluded from the 33rd, along with Henry and Trimble counties. The 60th, in Boone County, gets most of its population from Florence. The 61st has Grant, Owen, and most of Pendleton counties. The 62nd, in Lexington, combines northwestern parts of Fayette county with the southwestern part inside the city's beltway. Back in the Cincinnati suburbs, the 63rd combines the cities of Bromley, Crescent Springs, Crestview Hills, Edgewood, Fort Mitchell, Fort Wright, Lakeside Park, and Villa Hill, while taking a small part of Covington. The 64th takes in much of southern Kenton County, as well as parts of Boone and Campbell counties. The 65th takes in most of Covington, along with Kenton Vale, Ludlow, and Park Hills. The 66th takes in most of northern Boone County. In Campbell County, the 67th combines the cities of Bellevue, Dayton, Highland Heights, Newport, Southgate, Wilder, and Woodlawn. The 68th takes the remainder of Campbell County. The 69th, in Kenton County, combines Elsmere, Erlanger, and most of Independence. The 70th district is made from Fleming, Harrison, Nicholas, Robertson. The 72nd takes in parts of Bourbon and Scott counties, which puts the cities of Georgetown and Paris together. The 73rd takes the rest of Bourbon County and all of Clark County. The 74th is comprised of Bath, Menifee, and Montgomery counties. District 75 is a central Lexington district inside the city's beltway. The 76th and 77th are also made up of part of inner Lexington, but they do move beyond the beltway. The 78th takes in the eastern part of Pendleton County, as well as Bracken, Lewis, Mason counties. The 79th is a south-central Fayette County district just outside of the beltway. Finally, the 88th takes in the eastern part of Fayette County.
This region has more obvious Democratic strongholds. Districts 65 and 67 have PVIs of D+4 and R+4 respectively. The Frankfort based 57th has an R+2 PVI. In Fayette County, districts 62, 75, 76, 77, and 79 have respective PVIs of: D+1 PVI, D+6, D+8, D+23, and D+6. This includes the mostly non-White 77th, which has a Black VAP of 34%, a Hispanic VAP of 15%, and a White VAP of 49%. A few other districts might be winnable for Democrats today, but their future lies where the people are; in the densely populated areas.
Louisville 28-32, 34-38, 40-44, 46, 48
Democrats would be able to easily win most districts in Jefferson County. There are a few competitive districts, as well. The 28th and 32nd have R+2 PVIs. The 38th's PVI is Even. The 46th is at R+3 and the 48th is at R+5. The 31st has a D+5 PVI. Districts 30, 41, 42, 43, and 44 are drawn to elect Black representatives. This brings an additional Black opportunity district to the map. The district boundaries here are drawn to be more compact, while respecting communities of interest.
Kentucky’s House of Representatives district map was drawn to benefit Democrats, as they had a majority in the house at the time the plan was created. However, the Democratic brand has significantly weakened to the point the Republicans are near super-majority status in the lower chamber. My version would still allow Democrats to compete throughout the state by better consolidating communities of interest, mostly in urban areas. While some districts are better for Democrats, there are areas which would probably get harder for Democrats to win. Still, Republicans would be favored due to the state’s rightward trend as opposed to my district map, which is drawn to create more appropriate districts that respect political boundaries and communities of interest. Thanks for reading.
The maps were created using Dave’s Redistricting App: gardow.com/…
The charts and data were assembled using spreadsheets via Stephen Wolf’s guide: www.dailykos.com/…
The Statistical Atlas was used to match the district numbering: statisticalatlas.com/…
Google Images aided in determining the regional breakdown
Link to Kentucky Senate Map
Alternative Districts: Kentucky State Senate
Links to North Carolina Maps
Alternative Districts: North Carolina State Senate
Alternative Districts: North Carolina State House of Representatives