Nancy Pelosi has become a lot of people's punching bag around here and on social media as a whole. Gutless! Cowardly! Colluding with neoliberal corporate whores to protect the status quo! Well, an eight-year old who isn't failing math can prove them all wrong. Let's see how that works. (Sadly, you won't get an eight-year old math kid. You'll get me instead. No worries, we'll muddle through.)
Let's posit one thing: From everything I'm reading, the House has to approve an impeachment inquiry by a simple majority vote of the entire chamber. If I'm incorrect, and the Judiciary Committee can open an inquiry without a House vote, then the following still applies, it just comes later -- probably about five minutes later, as we'll demonstrate.
Here are the numbers:
435 representatives. A simple majority of 218 is required to pass a resolution.
There are 235 Democrats, 197 Republicans, and 1 independent, Justin "Man Without a Country" Amash. 2 seats are vacant and won't be voting. 235 is way more than 218. So, woo hoo, good guys win, amirite? Not so fast, QuickDraw.
About 85 Dems have publicly stated they're ready to put the impeachment boot up Trump's fat ass. We can presume Amash will also vote to impeach, as will Pelosi if she calls the vote. We can also presume that all 197 assholes on the GOP side will vote against. (You think not? Name one who might, and make the case with something more than “yuh huh.”)
87 for and 197 against. 199, actually -- remember the two vacancies? Yikes. Those two vacancies won’t be voting yes on anything.
218 - 87 = 131. We need 131 more votes. You think 131 Dems will vote to impeach? I wouldn't bet my paycheck on it.
Let's turn it around and look at the votes needed to defeat it. Same number: 218.
218 - 199 = 19. If a mere 19 Dems vote against impeachment, we lose. 19. Considering the number of vacillating, weak-willed poltroons we have in our caucus — we have them, though Pelosi isn't one of them — it doesn't strain credibility at all for me to believe 19 Dems will lack the spine or the will to vote to impeach.
It took me several minutes, a calculator, and a visit to Wikipedia to figure that out. Pelosi can undoubtedly spit out those numbers faster than I can spit out a poppy seed. And unlike you and me, I bet you she knows the total of who will and who won't perfectly. If she chose, she could undoubtedly spit out the names of every Dem who will vote to impeach, who might with a little cajoling, who's waffling, and who's dead set against it.
Bet there's at least 19 who, at least at the moment, are dead set against. Of that I am sure.
Marcy Wheeler agrees, and I promise you, she’s as committed to impeaching his Nazi ass as anyone. (Edit: It’s Wheeler’s site, but she didn’t write the page. See the update.)
Now you know why Pelosi isn't calling for an impeachment vote. At least 19 Dems aren't on board. And if we lose that vote, our credibility, and our ability to hold his Nazi ass accountable, goes smash. Maybe even our shot at winning the presidency in 2020. Maybe our shot at winning the Senate. Maybe even keeping the House.
Pelosi isn't cowering. She's juggling political nitroglycerin. And some of you are screaming for her to just throw the hell out of it and trust our guys will be there to catch it.
But wait! Some people say that Nadler can open an impeachment inquiry without a full vote of the House! Woo hoo! Except if that is indeed the case, some GOP assclowns will do exactly what Al Green is doing and force a floor vote. In that case, see above. "But Pelosi can block that vote!" you assert. Maybe so. Think the GOP can make political hay out of that? Double dog daring us to hold that vote? Of course they can. Credibility goes smash, chances of victory in 2020 diminish. Rinse, repeat, lose. (Edit: If this source is correct, Nadler can indeed open an inquiry without a floor vote. It has never happened except against judges. But he could, if he wanted to gut-punch Pelosi and give the Republicans the opportunity to call a floor vote the Dems may not have the votes to win.)
For the record, I am 100% for impeachment. Like many others, I see it as our moral duty to impeach his criminal ass. Wait, let me restate: it's our moral duty to win an impeachment. Not take a swing at it and miss.
I won’t be kind to the loudmouths who come back with insults towards Pelosi or anyone else as the foundation of their rejoinders to this diary. You want to argue this? Bring the math. Bring the names. Tell me why 19 Dems certainly won’t vote against impeachment, and bring the proof. Or prove the math is wrong. Save the name-calling and bullshit for another diary.
Tuesday, Jul 16, 2019 · 5:12:42 PM +00:00 · Black Max
Rec list! Thanks! Let me reiterate: I do NOT want to hear any of the goddamned insults against Pelosi or anyone else. Want to argue against the contents of the diary? Do so with facts and rational observations. Keep the fucking insults out of here.
Tuesday, Jul 16, 2019 · 5:57:51 PM +00:00 · Black Max
From the comments:
FWIW, Rayne posted at Emptywheel, not Marcy :)
Here’s an important point from Rayne:
Harassing Pelosi doesn’t make it likely the outstanding 133 votes will turn up; it makes it more likely they will hold out longer to avoid the harassment they’ve seen aimed at Pelosi. Jesus Christ, use your fucking brains. No dog is going to willingly show up for a whipping they’ve seen another dog take; they’ll run and hide.
Rayne is encouraging us to get the silent ones on board, not kvetch about Nancy.
Wednesday, Jul 17, 2019 · 5:26:56 AM +00:00 · Black Max
Here’s multiple citations that show the House Minority Leader, or any other Republican House member, can demand a floor vote on impeachment without going through a “discharge petition” or any other impediment. In other words, if the Dems open an impeachment inquiry without having a full vote, McCarthy can demand one. From Lawfare, and other sources linked in the quote:
As Matt Glassman describes nicely here, impeachment resolutions can be considered under different procedures than most other matters in the House. In most situations, bringing something to the floor requires the support of House leaders. The discharge petition, as I wrote about on Lawfare in April, is an exception to this, and impeachment resolutions can be as well. With notice, any member can bring an impeachment resolution to the floor using a question of the privileges of the House; the minority leader can do so at any point.