If Trump loses in 2020, the political discussion has focused on either a coup or a normal transition — with most people expecting a normal transition. I don’t anticipate a coup, but rather than a “normal” transition, we should consider a scenario where we have the “presidential transition from hell”.
Let’s start with some context. Trump’s been a consistently unpopular president. Through June 2019, Trump has averaged about a 40% approval rating (the worst performance of any president since polling began). Recent polls show him losing the popular vote to any of his likely opponents. But Trump has a low ceiling, and a high floor. His approval rating has never really gone below 35%.
Let’s assume the 2020 election will be bitterly contested, with Trump (and the GOP) maintaining their nonchalance toward foreign interference in US elections, and that 2020 will be like 2016, with heated accusations of: Russian election interference (perhaps with China, Iran and North Korea joining the fray), voter suppression, undocumented immigrants voting in the millions, and so on — that undermine voter confidence in the process.
Based on this context and assumptions, let’s consider a scenario where Trump loses the election (by a substantial margin) and the new president is sworn in on schedule, but the transition period is just a shambolic nightmare.
Trump could refuse to concede on election night, instead using his “concession” speech to lash out, on national media, alleging no other President was treated so unfairly, millions of immigrants voted illegally for his opponent (Trump already made that false claim in 2016), Fake Media cost him the election, and he’s the victim of a deep state conspiracy — sound familiar?
Imagine all sorts of spurious lawsuits by Team Trump to cast doubt on the election. Hopefully, the courts will deal quickly with this distraction, but expect Trump to complain about crooked Obama judges. Perhaps Trump will host rallies around the country and in DC, where his supporters will chant things like “Who won? We Won!”, or “Who cheated? They Cheated!”.
Trump will still be president from November 3rd, 2020 to January 20th, 2021 — plenty of time for him to dominate the news cycle. Imagine, TV interview after TV interview, where Trump repeats these allegations, spurring many of his supporters to demand a new election. Also, expect the whole pack of surrogates on Fox News, ONA, and Sinclair Broadcasting to constantly hype Trump’s false claims.
Trump could wreak havoc during the transition period (e.g., granting his cronies’ pardons, announcing withdrawal from NATO or our treaty with Japan, starting a war in Korea or the Middle East, imposing new tariffs on our allies, etc.).
Trump might never concede. Recall his comment about the difference between himself and President Nixon: “He left. I don’t leave.”
Whether or not Trump concedes, a new administration would be sworn in. But if Trump orders the Executive Branch to not cooperate with the inauguration, our new president could be sworn in, without much ceremony. (Recent inaugurals had about 1 million people attending, but this might not be doable without the Executive Branch’s cooperation).
Further, Trump could refuse to remove his stuff from the White House before the inauguration. (Remember, he’ll still be Commander-in-Chief until the new president’s swearing-in — you can’t order him to pack up.) Trump could claim he needs the White House for a few weeks post-inauguration to get his affairs sorted out, or until he’s satisfied the election was fair. Consequently, the new president might need to humiliatingly work from temporary space, or order the Secret Service to lock Trump out — neither of which bodes well for our country.
This is just a brief list of potential ways to be disruptive. Team Trump will be even more creative. Prepare for Trump ignoring and shattering every norm of American presidential transitions. Disruptions might not end even after the new administration (however chaotically) finally takes office. Imagine a continual propaganda war against the new administration.
As Birther-in-Chief, Trump convinced about 40% of the GOP’s voters to falsely believe President Obama was born outside the US. And, in 2016, before election day, Trump convinced 69% of his supporters that if he lost — it would be because the Democrats cheated. So, with this in mind, between 40% to 70% of Trump’s supporters could believe the Democrats cheated and the new Democratic presidency is illegal.
Assuming Trump convinces his base he was cheated out of re-election, he’ll likely remain GOP kingmaker. Don’t expect elected GOP politicians to anger their base by opposing Trump’s falsehoods. As with Birtherism, most of the GOP leadership won’t combat these falsehoods, even if they didn’t endorse them.
This is a scenario, not a prediction. If Trump loses, maybe he’ll concede graciously, focus on a smooth transition, and retire quietly to write his memoirs. Or, maybe a 2020 loss will break the GOP’s Trump fever. The GOP leadership might insist that Trump leave quietly (in the event of a loss). But, nothing in Trump’s history suggests he’ll be a good loser.
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Steven Strauss, a member of USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors, is a lecturer and visiting professor at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School. Follow him on Twitter: @Steven_Strauss.
This was originally posted on my blog at Medium and is cross posted with permission.