The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MI-10: On Wednesday, GOP Rep. Paul Mitchell announced that he would not seek a third term in Michigan's 10th Congressional District, a safely red seat that includes northern Macomb County and the "Thumb" region in the eastern part of the state. Mitchell declared that he was leaving after such a short tenure because he felt frustrated to be in a Congress where "rhetoric overwhelms policy, and politics consumes much of the oxygen in this city."
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Mitchell, who had served as CEO of Ross Education before he began his political career, had spent millions of his own money on two campaigns to reach the institution that he so quickly soured on. In 2014, Mitchell ran for the open 4th District in the center of the state and poured $3.56 million of his own money into his bid, but he lost to now-Rep. John Moolenaar 52-36. Mitchell got another shot two years later when GOP Rep. Candice Miller retired from the 10th District, a seat that does not border the 4th. Mitchell threw down another $3.56 million of his own funds (perhaps that's his lucky number), but this time, he won his primary 38-28.
However, it sounds like Mitchell may be rethinking those two considerable investments. The congressman told Politico on Wednesday, "You look at the rhetoric and vitriol, it overwhelms policy, politics becomes the norm," adding, "Everything's about politics. Everything's about an election. And at some point of time, that's not why I came here." Mitchell also took issue with how little time he got to spend with his family, saying that he'd advise anyone interested in running to succeed him, "This becomes your life, your entire life, whether you want it to or not. It will consume every waking minute you've got if you let it."
In a separate interview with the Detroit News, Mitchell also expressed frustration with Donald Trump and his racist tweet against four women of color in the Democratic House caucus. Mitchell joined almost the entire House GOP in voting against a resolution condemning Trump, but he says that the “send her back” chant that broke out at a Trump rally the next day infuriated him. The congressman said, “My youngest son is adopted from Russia, and God forbid anybody say he's not American. He'd be picking himself up off the ground.”
The GOP should have no trouble holding this seat without Mitchell. Donald Trump carried the 10th District 64-32, which was his best showing in any of Michigan's 14 congressional districts. This seat was also reliably red turf during last year's midterm elections: According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, it was again Team Red's best district in both the gubernatorial and Senate races.
Politicos immediately began to wonder if Miller, who held this seat from 2003 until 2017, would run to reclaim it. Miller’s spokesperson was asked about her plans and replied that she “will not be commenting further at this time.”
Miller, who was elected to a seat on the Macomb County Public Works Commission in 2016, also put out a statement that didn’t directly address the possibility that she could return to Congress, but instead heaped scorn on her successor. Miller wrote, “I would have appreciated seeing some recognition of the great people of the 10th District — good, decent, hardworking people who sent him to Washington DC on their behalf,” and added, “Reading his rant in Politico is not the best way to find out your Member of Congress is not seeking re-election.”
There are a number of other Republicans who could run. Roll Call and the Detroit News name-drop state Sens. Kevin Daley, Dan Lauwers, Pete Lucido, and Mike MacDonald; former state Sen. and 2016 primary runner-up Phil Pavlov; state Rep. Shane Hernandez; former state Rep. Pete Lund, who works as state director for the Koch’s Americans for Prosperity group; and retired Air Force Brig. Gen. John Slocum. Roll Call suggested that Lucido would be the favorite if Miller decided to stay out, and GOP consultant Steve Mitchell says that he has the ability to self-fund.
Senate
● KS-Sen: State Senate President Susan Wagle announced Wednesday that she would join the GOP primary for this open seat. Wagle is the only woman currently seeking the Republican nod, and she declared at her kickoff, "The U.S. Senate needs a woman in cowboy boots." The Kansas City Star also writes that she's close to the Wichita business community, including megadonor Charles Koch, so it sounds like she'll have some important fundraising connections.
Wagle was first elected to represent Wichita in the state House in 1990, and she earned a promotion to the upper chamber in 2000. Wagle ran statewide in 2006 as gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett's running mate, but the GOP ticket was crushed by Democratic incumbent Kathleen Sebelius. The defeat didn't do much to slow Wagle's rise, though. In 2012, she was part of a successful effort to replace moderate Republican state senators with conservatives, and she soon became the first woman to lead the chamber.
Wagle was an ally of the Sam Brownback during most of his governorship, and she supported his disastrous tax cuts. While the two temporarily had a falling out over the state of Kansas' economy in late 2016, she opposed the legislature's successful drive to repeal his tax breaks the following year.
Wagle has clashed repeatedly with Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly over the last six months, and the Senate leader scored a high-profile victory in the spring by blocking Kelly's proposed Medicaid expansion. Wagle's fights with the state's most high-profile Democrat might help her stand out in a primary, though she hasn't always won. For example, the governor successfully vetoed two bills passed by the GOP legislature that would have cut taxes again, which Kelly warned would bring the state back to the bad old days of the Brownback administration.
Wagle joins 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, and Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom in the GOP primary. A number of other contenders are still talking about running, while everyone is waiting to see what U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will do. Wagle said this week that she'd recently spoken to Pompeo about this contest, but she didn't reveal what he'd said or if she'd defer to him.
Gubernatorial
● MS-Gov: Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves acknowledged for the first time this week that there is a chance that he could fail to win a majority of the vote in the Aug. 6 GOP primary and would have to go through a runoff three weeks later. Reeves said, "Look, there are three people in the Republican primary," and added, "It's hard to get to 50 when there are three people. That is our goal."
We've only seen one poll of this year's GOP primary, and it was an early June survey from the Republican firm Impact Management Group. That poll, which was conducted for the conservative Mississippi blog Y'All Politics, showed Reeves with a huge 50-19 lead over former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr., while state Rep. Robert Foster took 9%.
Those numbers gave Reeves just about what he would need to win in round one no matter how the undecideds break, but it's very possible he thinks things are more volatile. Of course, Reeves may just be seeking to warn his supporters against complacency or just be preparing to spin any showing in two weeks as a big win.
Mississippi Today notes that there hasn't been a GOP gubernatorial runoff since 1991, and that race did not go well for the frontrunner. Back then Kirk Fordice narrowly finished ahead of state Auditor Pete Johnson, who was considered the favorite, in the first round before decisively beating him in the runoff and then prevailing in the general election.
House
● FL-26: On Wednesday, former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo told Politico that he would not seek a rematch against freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida's 26th District, though he reiterated that there was a "strong possibility" that he would run for mayor of Miami-Dade County in 2020. Mucarsel-Powell beat Curbelo by a narrow 51-49 margin in a very expensive race last year, so his decision will come as a big relief to Team Blue.
Restaurateur Irina Vilariño remains the only notable Republican in the race, but as we've written before, she's far from a good fit for a seat that Hillary Clinton carried 57-41. In May, Talking Points Memo reported that Vilariño has an ugly history of sharing far-right conspiracy theories, including a video that was faked to make Barack Obama sound like he was saying, "It's true, I'm not an American. I wasn't born in Hawaii, I wasn't born in the United States of America. I come from Kenya." Vilariño showed absolutely no contrition after these tweets became public, telling TPM, "I don't think any of these tweets warrant an apology, and I am not going to fearfully pander every time someone thinks they might be offended."
Even the disreputable GOP pollster McLaughlin & Associates found Vilariño doing poorly this month. The survey found Curbelo leading Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 45-42 in a hypothetical general election, but the incumbent bested Vilariño 45-33. McLaughlin has done work for Curbelo in the past, but it's not clear who commissioned this survey.
We haven't heard any other Republicans mentioned as possible candidates here, though other local politicians may take a look at this race now that Curbelo has made his decision. Whoever runs will need access to a lot of money, though. Mucarsel-Powell raised $605,000 during the second quarter, and she had $934,000 in the bank at the end of June. Vilariño, by contrast, took in $232,000 during her opening quarter and self-funded another $40,000, and she had $256,000 on-hand.
● GA-06: This week, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that construction company owner Marjorie Greene, who has self-funded $500,000 so far for her bid for Congress, has a history of spreading far-right conspiracy theories about the 2017 Las Vegas massacre. Greene is one of several GOP candidates challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, whose teenage son was murdered by a gunman in 2012, in Georgia's 6th District.
In early October of that year, four days after a lone terrorist named Stephen Paddock murdered 58 people at a concert in the deadliest mass-shooting in American history, Greene put out a video where she wondered if the attack was part of a government plot to try to pass anti-gun laws. Greene asked, "Is that why the country music festival was targeted—because those would be the people that we would relate to? Are they trying to terrorize our mindset and change our minds on the Second Amendment?" She continued by saying she didn't believe Paddock acted alone and told her audience, "I know most of you don't, either."
Greene kept this up five months later when she shared a post on her Facebook page that accused the FBI of taking part in a cover-up and added, "Every American knows we have been lied to." Greene told the AJC this month that she now accepts the official version of events and is satisfied that Paddock acted alone, and she insists she just "had questions and demanded answers." However, as of Wednesday evening, Greene's old Facebook post is still up on what is now her own campaign's fan page.
● MN-03: Healthcare executive Kendall Qualls set up a fundraising committee on Tuesday for a potential GOP bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips, and Minnesota Morning Take writes that he's expected to announce Friday.
NRCC chair Tom Emmer, who represents a nearby seat, recently touted Qualls, but other members of the party don't sound so high on him. Morning Take writes, "Multiple Republican sources say that they had only met Qualls once and that he seemed focused on service but naïve about the task of giving Phillips a tough race." This suburban Twin Cities seat backed Hillary Clinton 51-41, and Phillips unseated five-term incumbent Erik Paulson 56-44 last year.
● NC-09: Advertising Analytics tells Politico that Republican Dan Bishop is launching a $185,000 cable TV ad campaign ahead of the Sept. 10 special election, while his allies at the Club for Growth are spending another $100,000. We do not have copies of either ad.
● NY-27: This week, conservative radio host and Army veteran David Bellavia spoke about his interest in this race for the first time since he received the Medal of Honor from Donald Trump, and he doesn't sound inclined to challenge indicted Rep. Chris Collins in the GOP primary.
Bellavia didn't rule anything out, saying, "Nothing is going to sway me to run or not run," and that he was focusing on his ongoing duties in the military. However, he said of running for office after receiving the armed forces' highest award, "The last thing I'm thinking about right now is cashing this in ... And this feels like it would be cashing it in." That's a very different tone from May when Bellavia declared that he was "[n]ot afraid of primaries," including contests against Collins.
Bellavia ran for this seat once before but lost the 2012 primary to Collins by a 60-40 margin. However, while Bellavia's first campaign didn't attract much attention, his profile has dramatically increased in the weeks since he became the first living American to receive the Medal of Honor for service in Iraq. The Buffalo News recently reported that most local politicos think that he can hold off on entering the race until as late as the end of the year, and that he'd immediately be the frontrunner.
● PA-10: State Auditor Eugene DePasquale has received an endorsement from 2018 Democratic nominee George Scott, who came very close to beating GOP Rep. Scott Perry last year. DePasquale is the clear frontrunner in next year's Democratic primary, but he doesn't have the contest to himself. Attorney Tom Brier raised just over $100,000 during the second quarter, and he had $164,000 in the bank.
● TN-09: Former Shelby County Democratic Party Chair Corey Strong formed a fundraising committee this week for a potential primary bid against Rep. Steve Cohen, though he says he has not yet made a decision.
Cohen, who is white, first won a crowded 2006 primary to represent this predominantly black and safely Democratic Memphis seat. During his first two re-election campaigns he faced opponents who argued that this district needed a black representative, and Cohen's 2008 foe even employed anti-Semitic language against the Jewish incumbent. Cohen won those two races with close to 80% of the vote, though, and his next batch of primaries were much more low-key affairs. The closest Cohen has ever come to losing re-election was in 2014, when he prevailed 66-33, but he had no trouble winning during the next two cycles.
Strong, who is a Navy veteran, took over as chair of the Shelby County Democratic Party in 2017, a year after the state party decertified them after years of infighting. The reformed party had a considerably better 2018, though, and they won control of the county mayor's office and many other important posts in the August local elections.
During that campaign Strong, who is black, attracted some attention when he posted on Facebook that local GOP candidates were "demonstrably racist, homophobic, unethical and unqualified," and he also accused local election officials of trying to "disenfranchise" inner-city voters by opening early voting sites days late. Local GOP candidates tried to make Strong's comments an issue, but he didn't back down and the state Democratic Party stood by him. Strong left his party post this year to take a job at Shelby County Schools, but he said he'd remain active in politics.
Legislative
● VA State House: On Tuesday, days after Virginia Del. Nick Freitas abandoned his bid for re-election because he hadn’t properly filed candidacy papers, a committee of local GOP leaders in the state’s 30th District voted to award the Republican nomination to … Nick Freitas.
The matter is hardly settled, though: An unfavorable ruling by the State Board of Elections or the courts could still force the GOP to run a write-in campaign to avoid forfeiting this reliably red seat at the same time that they’re defending their narrow 51-49 majority in the state House.
The Richmond Times-Dispatch’s Graham Moomaw reports that Republican officials are hoping to take advantage of a provision in state law that allows political parties to replace a nominee who dies or drops out. The law explicitly forbids parties from renominating someone who was “disqualified for failing to meet the filing requirements,” but Freitas withdrew on Thursday—a day ahead of a planned meeting of the elections board where he could have been disqualified. Board officials met on Friday as planned, but they made no announcement about what course of action they’d decided on, if any.
However, it remains to be seen if the GOP’s maneuver will work. Moomaw writes, “If the case goes to court, the outcome could hinge on whether Freitas was or wasn’t a party nominee before he withdrew on Thursday.” The elections board never certified Freitas as the nominee, but Republican officials are arguing that he became the party’s official pick in March when no one else filed to take him on in the primary.
Whichever way the board proceeds, there’s very good chance this dispute will wind up before a judge. The board will need to decide whether or not to accept Freitas as the new GOP nominee; if it doesn’t, Freitas could sue. However, if board members rule in the incumbent’s favor, Democratic nominee Ann Ridgeway could go to court to try to remove him from the ballot.
Freitas is indeed aware that he may not ultimately appear on the ballot. The delegate told conservative radio host John Fredericks on Wednesday that, if he gets bounced, he’ll consider running a write-in campaign to keep his seat. Freitas did suggest he could step aside if the board determines that a different Republican can appear in his stead, but he didn’t commit to anything. Freitas’ campaign manager estimated that a write-in campaign could cost up to $150,000 but said that the campaign has $500,000 in the bank.
This seat backed Donald Trump 60-36 and supported 2017 GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie 61-38, so a well-financed write-in campaign would have a good chance of success. Still, Democrats will count it a victory if the GOP has to divert resources from more competitive seats to hold this district, which Republicans shouldn’t have had to devote even a single thought to.