Good News: The Developing World Is Taking Over Renewable Energy
Last year, the leading economies in renewable energy investment growth were not to be found in North America or even Europe — the leaders in growth were countries often described as developing, such as China, Brazil, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Argentina.
These big shifts in renewables investment have, in fact, been emerging since 2004, and portend a strong outlook for continued growth in global renewable energy investment and reaching carbon-reduction targets.
Incredible growth
In 2016, renewable energy investments in poorer countries eclipsed investments in wealthier countries for the first time ever. Since then, the upward trajectories of their growth have held steady or increased.
But by no means all poor countries.
Bangladesh trebling its coal-fired power capacity
Good Advice
Knocking down moldy old lies.
Renewables are cheaper than coal. Everywhere. Period. End of story. Except that poor countries can often get financing for coal plants, and not for renewables.
Coal is in many countries still seen as one of cheapest energy sources. This is due to the fact that the negative effects of burning coal on the climate and human health are not reflected in energy prices. In addition, developing countries in particular have the problem that financing costs of renewables remain high. The new MCC Policy Brief "Coal Phase-out" shows what measures are necessary to phase out coal rapidly and in a socially acceptable way.
However, like all obstacles to renewables, that is changing. Funding for renewables in poor countries has seen rapid increases, even if not rapid enough yet.
Climate Finance
In 2018, the [World Bank Group] provided a record-breaking $20.5 billion in finance for climate action: doubling our delivery from the year before the Paris Agreement was adopted and meeting our 2020 climate finance targets two years ahead of schedule.
Is clean energy funding from the UN’s Green Climate Fund and other sources going where it’s needed most?
There are
93 clean energy and climate adaptation schemes so far approved by the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund (GCF), a financial mechanism set up in 2010 to collect and distribute the projected US$100 billion per year that rich countries have pledged to developing countries to help them mitigate and adapt to climate change.
"We now have 93 projects, worth US$4.6 billion. Thirty-nine projects, worth US$1.6 billion in GCF resources, are under implementation, and we expect to have disbursed around US$483 million by the end of the year,” says Simon Wilson, head of communication in the external affairs division of the Korea-based operation. “Demand for climate finance already exceeds supply, and disbursement of funds for energy projects is expected to pick up quickly over the next few years."
Least Developed, Least Funded
In theory, there has never been a better time for developing countries to install clean energy. In addition to the GCF, the African, Asian and American development banks; the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRDF); the European Investment Bank and the World Bank Group have all said they intend to significantly increase their green energy financing, offering developing countries cheap loans and grants. Many donor countries have also pledged to help poorer nations switch to clean energy.
But as diplomats and NGOs from some 190 countries [heard] at the U.N. climate summit in Katowice, Poland, in December [2018], the reality is that the new streams of public climate finance like the GCF are not nearly enough to meet the demand for clean energy infrastructure. That means a need to fund clean energy projects from the private sector — where commercial banks, motivated by profit, are loath to provide money to developing countries for what they consider risky projects.
Coal doesn’t help the poor; it makes them poorer
Climate denial often centers around myths about the importance of coal in alleviating poverty
The impact of coal is felt by society broadly, but most acutely by the poor. This page explains how coal has specific impacts on the poorest.
which leads us straight to
Bad Advice
Developing Nations Need Coal
Assignment: How many moldy old Denialist lies can you find in that one article? Start here.
This pressure on developing nations to deploy renewable energy solutions they cannot afford is both political and financial.
See also Dashiell Hammett, The Golden Horseshoe.
I was trying to count how many lies I could find in those nine words, and had reached four, with promise of more…
I'll give you the next one for free.
The UK and international organisations such as the European Investment Bank and the World Bank stopped funding coal plants in developing countries.
They have started taking matters into their own hands, as illustrated by the African Development Bank (ADB) recently breaking from other international financial institutions and agreeing to continue funding new coal projects. The President of the ADB emphasized that “Africa must develop its energy sector with what it has.”
You know what Africa has? Vast, untapped sun, wind, and water. Well, some of it has been tapped, but there is so much more.
Why Is China Placing A Global Bet On Coal?
Edward Cunningham, a specialist on China and its energy markets at Harvard University, tells NPR that China is building or planning more than 300 coal plants in places as widely spread as Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt and the Philippines.
The Chinese engineers, metalworkers and laborers who built coal-fired power plants must be kept employed. And, Cunningham says, "many are going abroad." They are building energy projects for developing nations, largely as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Which is a major source of bad advice worldwide. But also funding. So cash-strapped countries are accepting this Devil's bargain.
The Belt and Road Initiative will get its own Renewable Friday Diary. I have a plan for that.
I can't even list all of the nonsense I found in a Google search for
coal poor countries
But you can see for yourself, and you can see the usual suspects lying about it: The Daily Caller, MiningGlobal, and so on.
Coal has commercial coal interests, with international ownership, intent on profit at any cost. And the immorality of Rick Perry.
In March, US Energy Secretary Rick Perry announced the creation of a global fossil fuel alliance, which would see the US and other partners export clean coal technology to developing nations, allowing them to quickly expand electricity access while keeping emissions relatively low. In what he described as a new policy of ‘energy realism’, Perry emphasised the need to straddle the line between energy needs and investing in emission-free resources, referring to the global shift away from fossil fuels as “immoral” as it denies people in developing countries access to electricity.
This global fossil fuel alliance is only one part of US efforts to help electrify developing countries. Among the Japan-United States Strategic Energy Partnership’s priorities for 2017 and 2018 is deploying highly efficient, low emissions coal technology, as well as energy infrastructure, in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Under the auspices of the Power Africa 2.0 program, the U.S. is providing financing and technical assistance for 30,000 MW of electricity projects across Africa.
Renewables are a learning opportunity for a multitude of governments around the world. They have been getting good advice, and truly terrible advice.
I am reminded of when that idiot Nobel Prize winner Kary Mullis and various other AIDS denialists told South African President Thabo Mbeki that HIV did not cause AIDS, resulting in untold death. And also [TRIGGER] rape of younger and younger girls, under the myth that sex with a virgin would cure aids.[End trigger]
Thabo Mbeki and the South African AIDS Epidemic
Mbeki’s “denialist” position on AIDS dates back to 2001, when his minister of health convened a 36-member international panel of supposed AIDS experts to advise Mbeki on how best to confront the nation’s AIDS crisis. Regrettably, the14 known HIV/AIDS denialists, who were invited by the health minister to join Mbeki’s AIDS Advisory Panel, convinced Mbeki to adopt their denialist point of view.
So even though every country in the world signed on to COP21, after activists overcame considerable resistance, especially in India, not every Energy Minister is on board, and not every Head of State is well-informed. And financing for renewable is not available to all countries.
Some Countries and Projects
Coal Ministers in India and China were notably resistant. China's export construction industry still is. Now the big news on India is
India: Renewable Energy Dominates 1st Half Of 2019 With 58% Share In New Capacity
Then there is Trump. [Renewable Friday: The Trump Effect]
The program in the developing countries has two tracks.
- Actual renewable energy projects, including grid development and storage
- The financial, legal and political climates [ha-ha] in the countries concerned
Por ejemplo:
No more auctions for solar and renewables in Mexico
CFE boss Manuel Bartlett has again stated the national utility will not buy electricity from private companies as it can generate power itself. It is unclear whether CFE intends to develop solar assets.
In a press conference in late January, Mexico’s new president Andrés Manuel López Obrador made his first official statement on his energy plans and offered little encouragement for the renewable industry.
“The CFE generates now only half of what is consumed, while private companies are supplying the market with very high costs,” said Obrador. “Instead of improving, we have worsened in this matter.” No reference was made to the success of Mexico’s Energy Reform program, which introduced auction-based procurement that led the country to record the lowest price for large-scale solar in the world for a time – a price significantly lower than that seen for power generated from conventional sources.
A major problem in Mexico, which has vast solar resources, is a lack of grid interconnection between provinces. There is hope for further development in private markets, regardless of government policy.
Manan Parikh, a U.S. analyst with Wood Mackenzie, believes 15 GW of new solar capacity will be deployed between next year and 2024, for a cumulative 20 GW at the end of the period. “Despite the recent cancellation of the fourth energy auction, the existing contracts awarded in the previous rounds will be respected, according to the first statements of the AMLO administration,” Parikh told pv magazine, adding access to finance had also improved. “I am a bit skeptical about further growth after 2021, which does not mean we will see a slowdown or that the market will disappear.
DOE announces $16M in funding for 14 tribal energy projects
Yes, they are nations, even if not countries.
EDP keeps investing in off-grid solar
Just a day after announcing its entry in the off-grid solar business in Bangladesh, the Portuguese utility agreed to acquire a minority stake in Mozambique’s SolarWorks, a start-up providing pay-as-you-go off-grid PV solutions.
“This investment by EDP marks the start of the new strategy defined for the A2E area, in which it has committed to apply 12 million euros over the next three years with the objective of impacting 200 thousand people, mainly in developing countries,” the company continued.
This new off-grid investment follows a similar one made only two days ago, when the company agreed to invest €500,000 in Solshare, a start-up providing off-grid home solar solutions in Bangladesh. Both transactions are part of the group’s new strategy to expand its renewable energy business, so far mainly focused on wind, to storage, solar and hybrid wind-solar projects.
Myanmar issues tender for rooftop PV
The nation is targeting an unspecified capacity of solar PV systems to be installed on households and public facilities across several of its regions. The successful projects will be jointly financed by the World Bank and the government of Myanmar.
Saudi’s Alfanar to fund 100 MW solar project in Bangladesh
The news out of Bangladesh isn't all bad. We'll get there.
The infrastructure company will provide $100 million to develop the plant in the country’s Feni district, which is a draw for solar developers because of designated economic zones being planned there.
Feni already hosts a 900 kW wind power project and there are two other 100 MW solar plants and a 100 MW wind-hybrid scheme under development.
Benin launches 50 MW solar tender
Bidding for pre-qualification to the tender is open to developers until August 19. The projects are being developed in the frame of the Millennium Challenge Account-Bénin II (MCA-Benin II) program.
There are many more of these stories than I can fit in here.
The World
Global PV market: 114 GW to be installed in 2019, with continued growth onwards
According to the latest market forecast published by Wood Mackenzie, it seems that global PV installation figures will rise to 125 GW per year from 2020. Continued global capacity expansion will come in through a growing gigawatts-club.
The global PV market continues its soar along 2019, as the latest full year predictions are coming in. Year-on-year growth is up 17.5% from 2018, according to the most recent report by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables. The analysts expect that the end of the year will have an additional 114.5 GW of newly installed capacity.
While in 2018 there were seven markets with installation figures between 1-5 GW, the analysts assert that there will be 19 gigawatt club members by 2022.
It isn't enough, of course. The world will eventually need to get to well over a terawatt of new renewable capacity annually in order to get to 16 TW in the next 30 years, taking into account the difference between nameplate capacity and actual power generated from intermittent wind and solar.
Worry not. This is exponential growth, and it is plenty fast enough. For example, 17% growth for 20 years is a factor of 23.
Homework
If you are involved with any NGOs that work with these countries, tell us about them, and see what else you or we can do to help get the word out.
Electricity production from coal sources (% of total)
All Countries and Economies Getting 30% or More of Their Electricity from Coal
Country
|
Most Recent
Year
|
Most Recent
Value
|
Kosovo
|
2015
|
97.5
|
Botswana
|
2015
|
96.4
|
Mongolia
|
2015
|
92.7
|
South Africa
|
2015
|
92.7
|
Poland
|
2015
|
80.9
|
India
|
2015
|
75.3
|
Serbia
|
2015
|
72.4
|
Kazakhstan
|
2015
|
71.6
|
China
|
2015
|
70.3
|
Hong Kong
SAR, China
|
2015
|
65.4
|
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
|
2015
|
64.0
|
Australia
|
2015
|
62.9
|
North Macedonia
|
2015
|
58.4
|
Indonesia
|
2015
|
55.8
|
Morocco
|
2015
|
55.5
|
Czech Republic
|
2015
|
53.1
|
Montenegro
|
2015
|
50.3
|
Cambodia
|
2015
|
48.4
|
Zimbabwe
|
2015
|
46.8
|
Bulgaria
|
2015
|
46.2
|
Israel
|
2015
|
45.4
|
Philippines
|
2015
|
44.5
|
Germany
|
2015
|
44.3
|
Korea, Rep.
|
2015
|
43.1
|
Greece
|
2015
|
42.7
|
Malaysia
|
2015
|
42.3
|
Niger
|
2015
|
41.6
|
Mauritius
|
2015
|
39.4
|
Netherlands
|
2015
|
38.7
|
Chile
|
2015
|
37.1
|
Ukraine
|
2015
|
34.6
|
United States
|
2015
|
34.2
|
Sri Lanka
|
2015
|
33.7
|
Japan
|
2015
|
33.2
|
Bangladesh is not on this list, but its current plan would just put it on. We should be able to get together and keep that from happening.
World Bank Helps Bangladesh Expand Renewable Energy
WASHINGTON, March 1, 2019 —The World Bank today approved $185 million to add up to 310 Megawatt (MW) in renewable energy generation capacity in Bangladesh.