On Monday, former Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach announced he would run to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas, but he'll have to overcome a record of failure that has left the national party deeply skeptical of his ability to win—and Democrats cautiously optimistic about the chance to put this race in play against an opponent with a long record of voter suppression and anti-immigrant activism.
Kobach was Team Red's gubernatorial nominee last year, but he lost in an upset to Democrat Laura Kelly despite Kansas’ heavy Republican tilt. Thanks to an endorsement from Trump, Kobach won his primary over Gov. Jeff Colyer by just a microscopic 40.6-40.5 margin. However, his lackadaisical approach to campaigning in the general election—which one prominent GOP operative called "the most dysfunctional thing I've ever seen in my life"—resulted in a taint of loserdom that prompted the NRSC's spokesperson to swiftly bash Kobach on Monday as someone who would risk handing Democrats victory in 2020.
Kobach’s poor performance in his last campaign, which focused heavily on immigration, even though school funding was the dominant issue Kansans were concerned about, isn't the only mark against him. Kobach has a long history of anti-immigrant xenophobia and reported ties to avowed white supremacists, the latter of which even the Trump administration identified as a “red flag” that could pose a problem if he were to be nominated for a government job.
Both prior to becoming secretary of state and during his tenure in office, Kobach pushed state and local governments across the country to adopt xenophobic policies. Those efforts included Arizona’s notorious SB 1070, which required law enforcement to attempt to determine a person’s immigration status when stopped or arrested.
That evangelism for anti-immigrant measures also earned Kobach serious scrutiny when it was reported that his activism also served as a scam. Kobach would sell cash-strapped local governments on passing restrictive laws, then rake in legal fees defending the measures in court, which often led to legal defeats that left taxpayers holding the bag for Kobach's profits.
Kobach's anti-immigrant hysteria also manifested in an eternal crusade to suppress lawful voting. Most notoriously, he led Trump's “voter fraud” commission that pushed bogus notions of widespread fraud as a pretext for legitimizing new voting restrictions. That plan fell apart after Kobach requested individual voter registration data from all 50 states, leading to widespread bipartisan rebuke by state election administrators. (Trump ultimately dissolved the commission in the face of multiple lawsuits that threatened to expose the GOP's real motives.)
Kobach was also a driving force behind the attempt to add a question on citizenship status to the census, which could be weaponized against Democrats and Latinos in redistricting. That question is the subject of ongoing litigation, where Kobach's role may help lead to the administration's defeat.
Kobach spent a great deal of his time in office concerned with states other than Kansas, which gave him a reputation as a grandstander chiefly concerned with his own reputation. But as his state’s top election official, Kobach did manage to convince GOP legislators to adopt a law that required voters to provide documents proving their citizenship rather than simply swear under penalty of perjury that they are eligible as required by federal law. That restriction led to the suspension of one in seven new voter registrations, disproportionately among younger voters and Latinos, and made voter registration drives all but impossible.
But just like Kobach's anti-immigrant laws, these restrictions were also blocked in a lawsuit that saw Kobach thoroughly humiliate himself by representing himself in federal court last year. Kobach's team provided flimsy data that was easily debunked by voting experts, and District Court Judge Julie Robinson, who was appointed by George W. Bush, berated Kobach's experts as "misleading." Robinson furthermore dealt a crippling blow to Kobach's own credibility by holding him personally in contempt of a prior court order and ordered him to take six hours of legal education courses after his team failed to follow basic courtroom rules.
That sloppiness and failure to follow the correct procedures were on display on Monday, too, when Kobach initially filed paperwork with the FEC listing his name as "Chris Kobach." One commentator quipped that this was the type of error Kobach would have tried to suspend someone's voter registration over.
Kobach might be a celebrity in certain circles on the right, but he won't face an easy path to the nomination. Already in the running are state Treasurer Jake LaTurner and Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom, but the field could expand from there. Rep. Roger Marshall and state Senate President Susan Wagle are both considering and appear likely to get in, while Mitch McConnell and national Republicans are still trying to convince U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run in order to stop Kobach. However, if the field becomes too crowded, Kobach could prevail with a plurality, as he did in the 2018 primary.
If McConnell has his way, Trump won't endorse Kobach again, but when people try to tell Trump what to do, it usually doesn’t go the way they hope. Whatever Trump does, though, what remains of the GOP establishment will try to prevent Kobach from becoming the Republican nominee, since he could once again give Democrats an opening in a state that otherwise leans heavily to the right.
Former U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom kicked off his campaign for the Democratic nomination last week, and he announced that he had raised $185,000 on the first day in the race. Grissom may not have the field to himself, though, and other Democrats are actively considering the contest. With the prospect of a boogeyman like Kobach to run against, Kansas’ Senate race is suddenly looking much more interesting.