Welcome to the first installment in a new series of articles I will be writing, profiling 2020 swing states, as well as other states of interest due to Senate races (Maine, Alabama, Kansas, Alaska). In each of these pieces, we will be using maps and election data to unpack the partisan alignment of the states, and where they seem to be headed politically at this point in time, as well as their impact on the 2020 elections. Our first state up today is Arizona, so let’s dive right in:
Demographics
Like Texas and several other southwestern states, there is a discrepancy between the Hispanic population of Arizona and the Hispanic voting population of Arizona, which is considerably smaller. Despite being just a 55% white state among all adults, the white percentage is quite a bit higher with the total pool. Thus, Arizona’s electorate is roughly 70-75% white, 15% Hispanic, 5% black, and the rest being mixed/other/Asian/Native American. Due to the rather large retirement population in Arizona, there is a considerable split in political sentiment between white voters who are young and those who are older. White voters under the age of 45 are a swing demographic, while those over 45 are heavily Republican. As usual, non-whites are overwhelmingly Democratic.
In terms of education, Arizona’s electorate is about 20% high school or less, 30-40% “some college”, 25-35% college graduate, and 15% postgraduate. This places Arizona squarely in the middle of the country in terms of education. Arizona is not a state with a very high evangelical population, with just 13% of the state’s electorate identifying as a white evangelical, which is a key constituency of the GOP voting base. 25% of the state electorate has no religion and an additional 8% say “other”, making it as a whole, a rather average state in terms of religiosity.
Geography
Arizona is similar to Nevada in that it has a heavy population concentration around one major urban area, in this case Phoenix. Phoenix is the county seat of Maricopa County, a county which accounts for nearly 60% of the state’s vote. Put simply, if you win Maricopa, you’re in a good position to win the state, since it includes not just America’s 5th largest city but also many suburbs such as Peoria, Scottsdale, Glendale, Tempe, and Mesa. The remaining 40% of the vote largely balances each other out, with Pima (Tucson), by far the next largest (roughly 16%), and Coconino counties (Flagstaff) as blue anchors, while rural and exurban counties like Mohave, Pinal, and Yavapai constitute a lot of the GOP vote.
Trends
In the 2012 election, Arizona was an oddball outlier, the lone conservative bastion in the sea of non-majority Mormon southwestern states. While Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada all went to Obama, Arizona went to Mitt Romney by 9 points, putting Arizona 13 points to the nation’s right and giving it a Cook PVI of R+6.5. This was in line with 2008 and past results, as the state had not elected a Democrat for Senator since the late 1980s. But in 2016, Arizona went to Trump by just 3 points, putting it just 5 points to the nation’s right and giving it a PVI of R+2.5, a significant shift from four years prior. Additionally, Trump only won the state with 48.67% of the vote, less than he did Florida and not all that different than Pennsylvania. Democrats decided to target Arizona in the 2018 Midterms, attempting to seize on a potential trend, making the retiring Jeff Flake’s Senate seat the top priority. In 2018, this ambition was vindicated as Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally by 2.4% and Democrats also gained the Superintendent of Public Instruction (by 3.2%) and Secretary of State (by 0.8%) offices (both were open seats).
2012 Presidential Election vs 2018 Senate race in Arizona
So it’s rather clear that the state of Arizona is getting bluer, but the question is about what is driving this trend. Well, the same problems that the Republicans face in Georgia and Texas with southern suburban areas is magnified here. The reason is that while all of the suburban counties in Texas combined make up just over half of the statewide vote, the combination of Pima and Maricopa counties make up over 75% of Arizona’s statewide vote. Texas and Georgia have been slower in realignment because there are significantly populous rural areas. That’s less so the case in Arizona. The adjacent map compares the 2012 Presidential Result (R+9) to the 2018 Senate result (D+2.5).
As you can see, the largest shifts were in Coconino County (Flagstaff) and most notably Maricopa. When the county that holds 60% of your state’s voting base moves double digits to the left, that means your state will also be moving to the left, so long as there isn’t a rapid rural realignment. And as seen here, there largely hasn’t been. Mohave and La Paz are rural counties, while Greenlee is more working class, and those are getting redder, but not drastically and they aren’t nearly population-heavy enough to outweigh the dramatic shift in Maricopa County. Furthermore, what is happening in Arizona is largely a one-way street, with 11 of Arizona’s 15 counties moving left in this period of time.
2012 Presidential Election vs 2018 Senate race in Arizona, by CD
When this information is broken down by Congressional District, we get an even clearer view of where the trends are magnified:
As the map shows, the three largest shifts were in the 5th, 6th, and 9th districts. Those areas cover Gilbert, Queen Creek, Chandler, Mesa, Tempe, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Cave Creek, Arizona. As is the cliche when it comes to trends in American politics nowadays, they are, unsurprisingly, the more educated, wealthy, and most of all, suburban areas. Therefore, we can conclude that while there have been observed shifts in Arizona’s big cities (Phoenix and Tucson) what has pushed Arizona from a red state to a swing state has been the growing revolt in the very populated Phoenix suburbs.
Where is Arizona headed?
Shift in margin between the 2016 Presidential and 2018 Senate elections
This is a state, that the GOP really has to worry about moving forward, but while somewhere like Texas may still be a half-decade or so away from becoming a true swing state, Arizona is probably already there, and a fall to blue state status like New Mexico or Colorado is a genuine possibility if they can’t stop the bleeding. As mentioned in the trends section, there isn’t really a place in the state that is rapidly getting redder, outside of a few small rural counties. The counties that make up 75% of the statewide vote have gotten dramatically bluer in recent years. Furthermore, it’s important to note that not just are the rurals not getting significantly redder, some aren't getting redder at all. The adjacent map compares Sinema to Clinton, showing that the Senator did quite a bit better than Clinton in Mohave, Yavapai, and Greenlee counties, some of the only places that got redder between 2012 and 2018.
Thus, it’s fair to conclude that there is little active rural realignment going on in Arizona. That is, that the GOP seems to be mostly maxed out in AZ. Thus, the question of where the state is headed hinges on how much bluer Maricopa County and surrounding areas can get. Given the electoral makeup of other suburban areas like Northern Virginia and Oakland County, Michigan, the answer could be “very”. Still, there are reasons for hope for the GOP. Arizona has always had a conservative streak ingrained in its political culture that won’t be easy to do away with and the presence of large retirement communities means that the shift may be slow, or not happen at all.
In some sense, the best case scenario for the Republicans is that Arizona freezes where it is at right now and it simply remains a slightly right of center swing state, like where North Carolina has been for a decade, or a less insane version of Florida. The worst case scenario is that Arizona becomes Colorado and in the span of 10 years goes from a right-leaning swing state to barely a swing state at all. That future lies in Scottsdale, Peoria, Mesa, and the other Phoenix suburbs who hold the keys to the potential realignment.
The 2018 Arizona Gubernatorial Election map
That GOP hope was manifested in some ways in 2018, given that Republican Governor Doug Ducey was able to win re-election by a wide margin, albeit facing a heavily flawed and underfunded Democratic opponent. Still, he won a number of places that Sinema did, showing that Republican viability is still very real in swing areas, as shown in the adjacent map. Ducey carried Maricopa County by double digits and held Pima to a D+<5% margin.
Attorney General Mark Brnovich was also re-elected by 5 points, though I think it’s fair to say that the total scope of 2018’s elections in the Valley of the Sun for Republicans was… not great, given that Democrats swept the major open seats, including those where it was largely a Generic D vs a Generic R, like the Superintendent race. If there’s one lesson for Republicans to observe from 2018 moving forward is that the Ducey/Romney path is more fruitful than the Trump path to holding onto power in the desert.
2020 Vision
So how does Arizona shape up next year? Well, it figures to be, along with Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, one of the six crucial swing states that will decide the Presidential election. It will also be, alongside Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, and Alabama, one of the most crucial Senate states for 2020. Finally, its state legislature, with tenuous 17-13 and 31-29 GOP majorities in its two chambers, will be totally up for grabs too and will no doubt be heavily targeted by both sides. What I’m trying to say is that if you’re an Arizonan, get ready for lots and lots of ads and spending.
The presidential contest promises Democrats one of their better chances to flip a state from Trump, since he won with a plurality and also wasn’t super close to hitting 50%. A small amount of slippage in his position and Arizona is up for grabs. Additionally, with 11 electoral votes, it’s a prize worth going after and could make up for losing one of the Midwestern states. For example, winning MI + PA + AZ is a viable path to the presidency, even if the Democratic nominee loses Wisconsin. Since Arizona has just one major media market, it's also not a terribly expensive state to spend in and is a good return on investment for Team Blue. For Trump, Arizona is a state that must be protected, though his “all immigration all the time” campaign rhetoric may not be fruitful in this border state and his pardon of disgraced former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is also not an asset in Arizona (Arpaio lost re-election to his Maricopa seat by a solid margin in 2016).
The Senate race to replace the deceased John McCain is also a must-win for Democrats and will see heavy spending. Republican appointed incumbent Martha McSally is the same person who just lost the 2018 race to Sinema, which means she doesn’t exactly have the best record and currently sports very mediocre approval ratings. McSally has already drawn the challenge of former astronaut and husband of former US Rep. Gabby Giffords, Mark Kelly. Kelly seems set to be the nominee, as none of the other major contenders, Grant Woods, Pete Gallego, or Greg Stanton, decided to get in. Kelly has also already raised a ton of money, outraising McSally significantly in the first 6 months of the year. On the Republican side, McSally figures to be the candidate, and is moving to the right (read: pro-Trump) in order to avoid a primary challenge like the one she had in 2018, having to defeat Kelli Ward and Arpaio before facing Sinema.
All of this is underscored by the backdrop of the 2020 Presidential Election and Donald Trump. Trump sits solidly but not dramatically underwater in Arizona. The tracking poll Morning Consult has Trump at -7 in Arizona, while the Fox News Voter Analysis survey pegged his approval at -2 on Election Day 2018, and a PPP Poll from January put it at -5. The latest OH Predictive Insights poll had Trump also at -5 (it also had Mark Kelly leading McSally interestingly enough). Everyone seems to agree that the President is slightly below water and thus, Arizona starts in tossup territory.
At the end of the day, Arizona does not figure to be the most critical swing state yet, and is likely still a bit to the right of the nation as a whole, but if a Democrat is winning nationally by say 4 points, carrying Arizona becomes a very real possibility. Whether Arizona makes yet another leap to the left (say, a Dem carries it by 2 while winning nationally by 4 would mean a new PVI of R+1) is also interesting to watch. It’s a state in flux, and one where the Trump effect could wreak heavy casualties long-term. Will another run of hardline immigration rhetoric exacerbate and accelerate the trends already at play here? The fun thing is, we get to find out in the near future.
