Yes — turns out that the shoe many have been worried about has begun to indeed fall. There is an excellent write up in Nat Geo www.nationalgeographic.com/… that describes why , unlike the ocean, we still have precious little hard data about conditions in the far north lands- the ocean yields plenty of temperature and ice melt observations via satellite — permafrost study thus far requires small plot studies and usually field work in locations that are challenging to say the least.
The IPCC has finally begun to take permafrost emissions into account but there is mounting evidence that , similar to the disconnect between arctic ice retreat observation and computer modeling,scripps.ucsd.edu/… we may be on the way to an unnoticed abrupt thawing of permafrost- the emissions implications of that sudden event have yet to be included in any IPCC report. To give them their due, the modeling is hella complex — the biggest drivers appear to be the formation of ponds and lakes. Those can be as “simple” as the result of underground ice melting and collapsing to allow lakes to form or they can be as complex as the climate driven expansion of willow brush and trees then enticing the expansion of the range of beavers -those critters are on a 5 mile a year expansion north and their handiwork IS trackable from space.
"We are watching this sleeping giant wake up right in front of our eyes," said Turetsky, who holds the Canada Research Chair in Integrative Ecology….."It's happening faster than anyone predicted. We show that abrupt permafrost thawing affects less than 20 per cent of the permafrost region, but carbon emissions from this relatively small region have the potential to double the climate feedback associated with permafrost thawing."www.sciencedaily.com/…
There is obviously room for speculation on either side of the “tipping point “ debate. Perhaps the current drought conditions in the north will also continue into winter and , as a result, there will be less insulating snowpack and the freeze cycle can renew into those water logged depths. Thus- a reprieve. Or, perhaps, the “ticking time bomb” that the Woods Hole researchers describe the warming Beaufort Gyre will push the north into longer warmer seasons or even [gulp] stop their AMOC initiation flow…..
Regardless- this story strikes a personal note- I met a geologist in Canada a year ago. He was telling me the story of how proud he was that his daughter was doing her Phd work analyzing permafrost in the Yukon. But I could sense an ambivalence. “well” he said” she just called this past week to tell me that, based on what she was seeing- no way she was gonna bring a child into this future world” I see his face even now- proud , so proud of his daughter and her expertise. So sad to imagine he would never be Grandpa…..