With early voting underway in this year’s North Carolina congressional Special Elections, I decided yesterday evening to take a look at the details (at that point) available from the North Carolina State Board of Elections website (available here).
As always when looking at early voting data, we can at least know some information about who has already cast ballots, and at best (as here, for North Carolina) know a little about the voters’ choices of partizan ballots.
There are lots of details available about each voter who has submitted a ballot, but I have chosen to summarize the data using only race, gender and registered party affiliation.
There are 2 districts being contested, CD03 and CD09, and the data below pertains to ballots that have been returned and accepted. The data has been sorted first by registration, then by descending ballots cast, and has been clipped to only those rows with at least 100 ballots cast.
I will focus first on CD09, since that is the district that got national publicity regarding GOP dirty tricks in last year’s election.
What strikes me most here is the intransigence of DEM and REP voters. Only 1 voter from the 2 main parties appears to have requested a ballot for the other party. Next, DEM women are voting in 40% to 50% higher numbers than DEM men, while REP men are voting in only slightly higher numbers than REP women.
The story of this particular contest, though, may be the voting patterns of Unaffiliated voters. About two thirds of them are selecting non-partizan ballots. As for the other third, they are breaking strongly in favor of Democrats.
In aggregate, DEM and REP partizan ballots submitted so far are breaking about 60 / 40 in favor of Democrats in this contest. I only hope this trend continues through to the end of election day on September 10.
North Carolina CD09 - Early Voting
district |
race |
gender |
Registration |
Ballots Cast |
DEM |
REP |
UNA |
LIB |
GRE |
CST |
a_teen |
a_20s |
a_30s |
a_40s |
a_50s |
a_60s |
a_70s |
a_80s |
a_90s |
a_100s |
CD09 |
WHITE |
F |
DEM |
4903 |
4901 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
52 |
147 |
289 |
447 |
709 |
1388 |
1321 |
455 |
93 |
1 |
CD09 |
BLACK or AFRICAN AMERICAN |
F |
DEM |
3917 |
3917 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
100 |
158 |
301 |
683 |
1317 |
992 |
298 |
53 |
0 |
CD09 |
WHITE |
M |
DEM |
3315 |
3315 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
100 |
209 |
270 |
481 |
883 |
931 |
360 |
51 |
0 |
CD09 |
BLACK or AFRICAN AMERICAN |
M |
DEM |
2432 |
2432 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
91 |
89 |
177 |
418 |
803 |
641 |
179 |
15 |
0 |
CD09 |
INDIAN AMERICAN or ALASKA NATIVE |
F |
DEM |
351 |
351 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
25 |
42 |
46 |
100 |
101 |
23 |
1 |
0 |
CD09 |
INDIAN AMERICAN or ALASKA NATIVE |
M |
DEM |
270 |
270 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
21 |
20 |
53 |
69 |
79 |
20 |
1 |
0 |
CD09 |
OTHER |
F |
DEM |
152 |
152 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
17 |
24 |
36 |
34 |
23 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
CD09 |
UNDESIGNATED |
U |
DEM |
135 |
135 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
35 |
24 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
CD09 |
UNDESIGNATED |
F |
DEM |
106 |
106 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
12 |
9 |
25 |
18 |
22 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
CD09 |
OTHER |
M |
DEM |
105 |
105 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
16 |
22 |
25 |
21 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
CD09 |
WHITE |
M |
REP |
5616 |
0 |
5616 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
33 |
141 |
184 |
463 |
1051 |
1612 |
1623 |
458 |
51 |
0 |
CD09 |
WHITE |
F |
REP |
5413 |
0 |
5413 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
121 |
186 |
401 |
945 |
1599 |
1560 |
513 |
64 |
2 |
CD09 |
WHITE |
M |
UNA |
4494 |
1061 |
436 |
2995 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
43 |
170 |
246 |
461 |
740 |
1204 |
1243 |
356 |
31 |
0 |
CD09 |
WHITE |
F |
UNA |
4310 |
1320 |
352 |
2635 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
35 |
169 |
253 |
487 |
734 |
1138 |
1140 |
317 |
36 |
1 |
CD09 |
BLACK or AFRICAN AMERICAN |
F |
UNA |
365 |
66 |
5 |
294 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
27 |
28 |
68 |
95 |
79 |
54 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
CD09 |
BLACK or AFRICAN AMERICAN |
M |
UNA |
363 |
53 |
7 |
303 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
20 |
14 |
57 |
96 |
102 |
58 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
CD09 |
UNDESIGNATED |
U |
UNA |
241 |
49 |
19 |
173 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
25 |
22 |
38 |
43 |
56 |
39 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
CD09 |
OTHER |
M |
UNA |
128 |
37 |
9 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
11 |
17 |
34 |
26 |
25 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
CD09 |
INDIAN AMERICAN or ALASKA NATIVE |
M |
UNA |
121 |
4 |
0 |
117 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
14 |
7 |
14 |
24 |
31 |
22 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
CD09 |
OTHER |
F |
UNA |
118 |
33 |
7 |
78 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
11 |
24 |
35 |
19 |
18 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
CD09 |
UNDESIGNATED |
M |
UNA |
116 |
24 |
9 |
83 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
13 |
7 |
21 |
29 |
21 |
12 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
CD09 |
INDIAN AMERICAN or ALASKA NATIVE |
F |
UNA |
107 |
4 |
0 |
103 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
10 |
16 |
22 |
28 |
17 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
CD09 |
ASIAN |
F |
UNA |
106 |
34 |
14 |
58 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
36 |
28 |
16 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
As for CD03, much the same analysis applies, except for the following:
- partisan REP registered voters outnumber partisan DEM registered voters, as expected
- unaffiliated voters in this district are keeping their voting preferences private by almost unanimously selecting non-partisan ballots.
It looks like the non-partisan ballots will make or break this contest.
North Carolina CD03 - Early Voting
district |
race |
gender |
registration |
Ballots Cast |
DEM |
REP |
UNA |
LIB |
GRE |
CST |
a_teen |
a_20s |
a_30s |
a_40s |
a_50s |
a_60s |
a_70s |
a_80s |
a_90s |
a_100s |
CD03 |
WHITE |
F |
DEM |
2392 |
2392 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
19 |
57 |
88 |
217 |
843 |
868 |
252 |
42 |
1 |
CD03 |
WHITE |
M |
DEM |
1750 |
1750 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
25 |
30 |
64 |
143 |
540 |
689 |
234 |
22 |
0 |
CD03 |
BLACK or AFRICAN AMERICAN |
F |
DEM |
1703 |
1703 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
19 |
32 |
94 |
191 |
656 |
507 |
161 |
38 |
0 |
CD03 |
BLACK or AFRICAN AMERICAN |
M |
DEM |
928 |
928 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
11 |
17 |
38 |
122 |
343 |
293 |
87 |
16 |
0 |
CD03 |
WHITE |
M |
REP |
3885 |
0 |
3885 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
55 |
85 |
205 |
504 |
1206 |
1365 |
410 |
44 |
0 |
CD03 |
WHITE |
F |
REP |
3638 |
0 |
3638 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
41 |
67 |
182 |
465 |
1199 |
1287 |
347 |
38 |
1 |
CD03 |
WHITE |
M |
UNA |
2800 |
1 |
1 |
2798 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
43 |
66 |
125 |
308 |
808 |
1108 |
312 |
19 |
0 |
CD03 |
WHITE |
F |
UNA |
2472 |
0 |
2 |
2470 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
30 |
74 |
120 |
295 |
788 |
901 |
236 |
20 |
0 |
CD03 |
BLACK or AFRICAN AMERICAN |
M |
UNA |
116 |
0 |
0 |
116 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
25 |
46 |
16 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
|