Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy has spent his first eight months as Alaska’s chief executive doing little more, it seems, than making new enemies and inflaming old ones. That’s inspired the governor’s opponents to launch a campaign to recall him from office, and unlike many such efforts, this one appears to be serious.
The organization behind the recall, Alaskans to Recall Mike Dunleavy, has three primary sponsors from all corners of the political landscape: Usibelli Coal Mine chairman Joseph Usibelli, a former Dunleavy supporter who is furious with the governor’s draconian budget cuts; former Republican state Sen. Arliss Sturgulewski; and Vic Fischer, the last surviving member of Alaska’s 1955 constitutional convention. The Midnight Sun describes this trio as “heavy hitters” and notes that Usibelli in particular could help fund the effort thanks to his personal wealth.
If Dunleavy is removed from office, he would be succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer, a fellow Republican. However, recall organizers have a number of difficult hurdles to clear before they can make the ballot.
For starters, the recall campaign needs to collect signatures in two phases. First, organizers need signatures from about 28,500 Alaska voters, which represents 10% of the number of votes cast in the 2018 general election. There is no deadline to turn these petitions in, though organizers say they hope to be finished no later than December.
If it’s successful, the recall committee would then have to go back and collect signatures all over again. This time, it would need over 71,000 signatures, which is 25% of the votes cast last year, though there’s no deadline for this, either. If organizers can meet this goal, a recall could take place 60 to 90 days after signatures are certified.
Recall proponents also must allege that Dunleavy has committed specific offenses that meet the state’s grounds for recall. Under Alaska law, an official can only be recalled for “(1) lack of fitness, (2) incompetence, (3) neglect of duties, or (4) corruption.” This differs from the practice in other states, where only voters’ signatures are needed for a recall to go forward, and can lead to legal challenges that can make it harder for a recall to proceed or block one altogether.
One such instance came about in 1992, when an attempt to recall Gov. Wally Hickel foundered after the Fairbanks Superior Court “determined that certain grounds for recall were legally sufficient and other grounds were not.” Dunleavy’s detractors will likewise almost certainly wind up in court on this issue, so they need to make sure their arguments fit the legal criteria.
Alaskans to Recall Mike Dunleavy is focusing on the first three grounds for recall. In their grounds-for-recall statement, organizers argue that the governor violated state law by refusing to appoint a Superior Court nominee within the legally prescribed 45 days. They also allege that he misused state funds by sending out taxpayer-funded mailers that made partisan statements about his opponents and supporters.
They further go on say that Dunleavy improperly used his line-item veto to “attack the judiciary and the rule of law,” a reference to the governor’s attempt to retaliate against the state Supreme Court by cutting $335,000 in funding after it upheld a ruling that protected abortion rights. Finally, they charge Dunleavy with mistakenly vetoing $18 million more in funding than he intended to.
However, despite the fact that even some notable Republicans are on board with the recall, the evidence is mixed about just how unpopular Dunleavy is. Morning Consult’s survey from the second quarter of 2019 gave the governor a positive 49-32 approval rating, an improvement from his 42-29 mark in the first quarter—figures that suggest he hasn’t alienated enough people to put his career in imminent danger.
However, two summer polls from the Democratic firm Patinkin Research Strategies offered a very different picture. In late June, before Dunleavy vetoed funding for the University of Alaska system and the state’s Senior Benefits Program, the governor’s approval rating stood at an already-bad 41-57. But in the days immediately after the veto, his score plunged to 31-64. Of course, it’s going to be a while before any recall can get to the ballot, so there’s plenty of time for the governor’s numbers to move further—either up or down.
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