The first-in-the-nation NATIONAL primary continues apace, whittling down the field long before we get to Iowa and New Hampshire’s ill-gotten, undeserved nomination contests. At this stage, we’re really down to three real candidates—Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg hanging on on a second tier, looking for something to happen to pull them out of their doldrums.
But hey, at least they’re still mentioned in the conversation. Everyone else is meaningless at this point, anonymous background noise for the real competition. So with that totally unbiased and objective intro out of the way (it’s a joke), let’s look at my take on the state of the race. As usual, I base these rankings on both objective data (poll numbers, fundraising numbers), and my own subjective assumptions. So without further ado, let’s look at the rankings!
The RCP polling aggregate:
Warren continues her slow and steady upward progress, seemingly gaining supporters one selfie at a time. Sanders has gone from holding still to a slight uptick in support, running neck and neck with Warren (“the left wing of the party”). Biden is up and down and up and down and up and … His current floor does appear to hover around 26-28%. Kamala Harris is down to the mid-single digits. Pete Buttigieg has found his floor, but it’s a floor floor. Tens of millions of dollars wasted on his candidacy.
So, with numbers like that, the only question isn’t whether Biden is number one—that is still obviously true. It’s the next two spots. Still, I wouldn’t be happy if I were Team Biden. That’s one rough, bumbling campaign.
1. Joe Biden ⬇️ (Last cattle call: 1)
It’s amazing how bad a campaign Biden is running, stuck in the ‘80s and ‘90s, refusing to acknowledge errors or grow as a person and candidate. Just in the last two weeks, he’s pulled a Donald Trump in his storytelling, claiming, “The details are irrelevant in terms of decision-making." Dear god, aren’t we done with presidents who don’t care about the details?
There are his new claims that he opposed the Iraq War. "Immediately, that moment it started, I came out against the war at that moment," Biden told NPR. Nothing of the sort happened, of course. Quite the opposite: Biden was happy to give George W. Bush the authority to wage that disastrous war. Rewriting history to make one feel better? Trumpian. Again. (What did he actually say? “Nine months ago, I voted with my colleagues to give the president of the United States of America the authority to use force, and I would vote that way again today.")
His campaign has started doing some expectations-setting, arguing that he doesn’t actually need to win Iowa (where both Warren and Sanders look strong) and New Hampshire (in Warren’s backyard) to win the nomination. And sure, that’s technically true. But if your entire campaign is how electable and inevitable you are, losing anything is a ding to your narrative. It’s not about Iowa and New Hampshire; it’s about communicating to voters in later states that you aren’t the winner you pretend to be. Indeed, in a CBS poll of early states, Warren has taken the lead from Biden.
As our own Kerry Eleveld noted, “[M]erely dismissing Biden's missteps as making a few gaffes here and there truly undersells the danger his routine misstatements present. Though Biden is surely not intentionally undercutting Democrats, his persistent mistakes are almost systematically robbing the party of their best arguments against Trump in the general election. First and foremost, Democrats are truthful and can be trusted to be honest. Second, Democrats are grounded in reality as the starting point for all discussion regarding governance and policy making. And third (ideally), Trump's Democratic challenger is unquestionably sane and competent above all else.”
His problem, in the context of the primary race, is that people either get this, or will get this. That’s why he’s having trouble holding on to the support he already has.
2. Elizabeth Warren ⬆️ (Last cattle call: 2)
No one in this race has shown such a consistent upward trajectory. She’s not driven by gimmicky viral hits (Buttigieg) or strong one-day performances (Harris). Her support is a slowly gathering groundswell, methodical and with a strong foundation. Republicans are starting to worry, and so is Trump: “One of these sources said Trump asked the room if they thought Warren was a ‘fighter.’” He really has to ask that? People are using the word “teflon” to describe her ability to shrug off attacks. Problem is, there are no good attack lines against her. Biden’s crew was test-driving a new one: “Joe Biden expected to argue in upcoming debate that 'we need more than plans.’” Yeah, go with “She has too many good ideas.” See how far that takes you.
3. Bernie Sanders ⬆️ (Last cattle call: 3)
After months of stalled-out flat trendiness, Sanders has inched up a couple of points. Interestingly, they don’t seem to be coming out of Warren’s pool. It’s as if their message is a one-two punch that is weakening the rest of the field. Everyone knows I’ve never been a big fan of Sanders, but the way he and Warren’s messages reinforce each other and build support for their core ideas and ideology is a net boon for the Democratic left.
A time might come where the left needs to consolidate around Warren (and if that time happens, it will be Warren). But why rush it? As it stands, within the last months, the combined Sanders-Warren support total in the RCP aggregate has gone from about 30% to 34%. No need to mess with what's working for at least the next 4-5 months. Then, if Biden is still a thing, we proceed accordingly to stamp out that threat.
4. Kamala Harris ⬇️ (Last cattle call: 4)
Uh oh: She’s down to mid-single digits, unable to build a lasting base of support of her greatest-hits moments (her announcement speech, the first debate). She was ill-prepared to address her record as attorney general, letting Tulsi Gabbard of all people knock her down a peg. Her entire theory of the nomination has centered around winning black support, riding that to victory in South Carolina and the rest of the South (and beyond). And yes, it’s still early, but so far she’s had little traction in the state. She can’t shake that support away from Biden.
5. The rest don’t matter. Well, they don’t matter in the context of the Democratic presidential race. They’re all lovely people, I’m sure.