This essay is an adaptation of a response to a friend, who went on about, well, yes, there’s global warming, but it’ll take centuries, and it’s not a big deal yet, and probably won’t be in our lifetimes…. and then sent me a link to a CNN article that minimized what we call the Climate Crisis. He gets his information largely from TV.
First, people should consider their sources of information: it turns out CNN aired almost five times as much oil industry advertising as climate change-related coverage in the one-week periods following the announcements that 2015 was the hottest year on record and February 2016 was the most abnormally hot month on record.
In other words, CNN, and probably ABC and NBC, which includes MSNBC, are likely beholden to the fossil fuels industry, dependent on their ad dollars. CNN’s Town Hall on Climate Change was not available to us for more than 20 minutes (we don't have TV, just streaming), but there were a lot of comments about how the questions were softballs or trivial.
So, they soft-pedal what has actually come down through the consortium of climate scientists under UN aegis: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Yet, the IPCC’s conclusions are accepted by the vast majority of scientists. They don’t have this laid back attitude, that oh, well, we have time to adapt....
The conspiracy theory that climate scientists are bought by some global villains like Soros, is exactly the opposite of the truth, which is that the easy money for scientists is to do the oil, gas and even the coal industry's bidding. Money is not the main motivation for reputable climate scientists; it's academic respect, status and the facts, how things work. It's the ones who give EXXON, etc. cover, who are motivated by money.
If you read the IPCC report you wouldn't be quite so sanguine. https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf
It gives us until only 2030 to limit global emissions enough to keep global warming to no more than 1.5C, or 2F+. Anything above that and the projected outcomes look out of control.
We do not have the time people seem to think we have.
From the IPCC report:
Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and industrial systems (high confidence). These systems transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms of speed, and imply deep emissions reductions in all sectors, a wide portfolio of mitigation options and a significant upscaling of investments in those options (medium confidence). {2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5}
That's by 2030 (11years) and only to limit warming to 1.5C!
We've already reached 1C of warming before the Amazon (not just Brazil, but Venezuelan and Colombian Amazon rainforests, as well), were burning, Alaska burning, the rainforests in Indonesia burning, as well. The permafrost in the Arctic releasing methane as it thaws: 80 times the potency for warming as CO2. Then there's the great floods in the Midwest, massive melting in the Arctic, Greenland and Antarctica and the results of that: rising seas and drastically changing climate in temperate regions. Remember the polar vortex in the winter? And there's also the warming oceans, juicing storms like Hurricane Dorian, killing corals, reducing food for marine life.
Do you really believe that we'll just naturally revert to consensus and eliminate political stalemate? That we’ll come together and find a solution? Do you know of a leader or leaders who can lead the world in that direction?
Biden? The man shows all the symptoms of senility, even though he's 4 years younger than I am.
Warren? Trump will eviscerate her as a Commie. Same with Bernie, though he's fading, anyway.
Maybe a credible leader will emerge: I hope so, but…
You'll see that the IPCC’s projections for anything above 1.5C mean extremes much much worse than anything we've experienced so far. WE DO NOT HAVE TIME!
Further, it's not just us: it's the great majority of animals, even insects: most are declining dramatically in number and variety, with ecological consequences that are unpredictable. It's already called, by wildlife experts, "The Great Extinction."
Our extinction may not be complete: humans are adaptable. But civilization could be extinguished, if we continue on Trump's--and the fossil fuel industry's--drive to drill and frack everywhere, burn the fuel, of course, burn the rainforests for beef and palm oil and eliminate environmental regulations. Trump is even determined to eliminate California’s more stringent emissions laws.
Human population might be reduced dramatically (billions of untimely deaths). It might even be reduced to a few wandering bands, and the successors of the 0.1% living underground, or on asteroids, searching for a more habitable planet.
That’s not centuries: it could be a decade before all hell breaks loose, unless we get it together, just 11years! The full cost and horror would take longer, of course, but not centuries: certainly within the lifetimes of most of us (although, possibly, not an 80-year old like me).