Any possibility that global warming can be kept to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times will require keeping most of our planet’s remaining fossil fuels buried rather than burned. Indeed, an analysis by the human and environmental rights group Global Witness released earlier this month concludes that global production of oil and gas needs to be reduced by 43% and 39% respectively by 2029.The report states:
“This means that any production from new oil and gas fields incompatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, unless producing assets from existing fields are retired early.
While successfully limiting climate change is likely to to require the early retirement of existing oil and gas assets, it is clear that the future of oil and gas production—and its impact on the world’s climate—will be determined by what happens in new oil and gas fields.
Unfortunately, rather than reducing oil and gas production as the ongoing transition away from fossil fuels continues, industry is determined to vastly expand production, helped along with what the Congressional Budget Office estimates is $4.6 billion a year in fossil fuel subsides. And that is a figure much-contested by critics who say the subsidies amount to far more than that.
Global Witness concludes that 61% of all new oil and gas production between now and 2029 will come from the United States as it boosts its current record-breaking production by 25%. Production from new U.S. fields will be greater in 2029 than the current output of all the fields in Saudi Arabia. And seven of the 10 largest oil and gas producers in the world will be U.S. states.
The word best describing this is disastrous.
In a briefing paper accompanying its analysis, Global Witness states: "The next U.S. president needs to have a credible plan for tackling climate change. And any credible plan to tackle climate change has to prevent the U.S. from drowning the world in oil."
Come September 4, 10 Democratic presidential candidates will appear one after another at a seven-hour CNN town hall devoted to the climate crisis. Global Witness created a short list of questions it thinks they should all answer as part of determining how truly serious their climate policy stances are:
- What action do you intend to take to curb oil and gas production from public lands and waters?
- Will you end government subsidies for oil and gas production? How will you ensure the money saved benefits the communities affected?
- Will you commit to not approving new oil and gas pipelines, export terminals, and other infrastructure?
- How will you ensure your appointees to key agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Interior serve the public interest and not the fossil fuel lobby?