The climate crisis is accelerating. According to a new report released from the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), around the planet, warming oceans are particularly dangerous. Put in simple terms: Oceans are getting warmer at a rapid rate, which can lead to progressively more powerful tropical cyclones, dwindling fish populations, melting glaciers, and of course, danger to people who live in both coastal areas and the Arctic. The report, titled “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate,” asserts that some islands could be uninhabitable because of climate change.
In order to gather these findings, the IPCC used data from close to 7,000 scientific publications. More than 100 marine scientists and climate experts from 36 countries participated in writing the report. The research looks closely at the relationship between warmer oceans and the depletion of glaciers, snow covers, frozen grounds, and ice sheets.
This is dangerous for people in coastal areas not only because of the obvious threats—like natural disasters—but in terms of daily survival. For example, people who rely on fishing economies may see a dramatic lack of work. People may also experience a lack of food access, given that seafood can be a dietary staple for many. And of course, destroyed infrastructure. As we know, this change can be particularly devastating for communities of color.
How many people could this impact, really? A whole lot. For example, about 670 million people live in “high mountain” regions, which are vulnerable to flooding because of changes in glaciers, ice sheets, and the ocean. For those on the low-lying coasts (including, obviously, literal islands), the population is about 680 million and is expected to continue to rise.
The primary way to curb this climate disaster, per the report? Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to that, managing the use of natural resources and protecting and restoring delicate ecosystems.
"The world’s ocean and cryosphere have been 'taking the heat' from climate change for decades, and consequences for nature and humanity are sweeping and severe," Ko Barrett, vice-chair of the IPCC, said in a statement. "The rapid changes to the ocean and the frozen parts of our planet are forcing people from coastal cities to remote Arctic communities to fundamentally alter their ways of life."
Let’s look at some numbers offered in the report. Looking at the 20th century, the global sea level rose about six inches. Today? It’s rising at a rate that’s twice as fast. And it could continue to accelerate even more as time goes on.
Now, if we’re able to significantly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels could still rise above our current levels by 2100. In feet, this puts the range at between two and three above our current level. However, if our rate of emissions continues to rise (basically, if it follows the present-day trend of getting worse instead of better), the sea level could rise between two and 3.6 feet in the same period.
"We will only be able to keep global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels if we effect unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society, including energy, land and ecosystems, urban and infrastructure as well as industry," said co-chair of IPCC Working Group II, Debra Roberts. "The ambitious climate policies and emissions reductions required to deliver the Paris Agreement will also protect the ocean and cryosphere—and ultimately sustain all life on Earth."
The point? Warming oceans could still have horrible side effects, but by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they’ll be comparatively less horrible. The less horrible they are, the more likely we are to adapt and survive it.
It’s long, long been time to take action. Let this report be a wakeup call that it’s not about preventing all harm anymore; it’s now about minimizing the inevitable, and what’s already been done.