Harry Enten/CNN:
Trump trails Democrats by a historically large margin
Poll of the week: A new national
Quinnipiac University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg all lead
President Donald Trump by significant margins in potential 2020 matchups.
Biden is ahead of Trump by the most (16 points, 54% to 38%), while Buttigeg is up by the least (9 points, 49% to 40%).
What's the point: The Quinnipiac poll was the second probability poll that meets CNN standards and was conducted in August which found Trump down by at least 5 points against all his most likely challengers. In both the
Fox News poll out earlier this month and Quinnipiac's latest, he trailed his most likely challenger, Biden, by double-digits. In fact, in an average of all the August polls (those that meet CNN standards and not), Biden was up by a 49% to 39% margin.
We're still over a year away from the 2020 general election, so don't take these polls to the bank.
Still, it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever
polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign….
Trump has time to turn his reelection ship in the right direction. But in the 10 months since the Republicans lost the House in 2018, he's in no better shape. You could even argue he's in a worse position.
Our media friends have a hard time just laying this out. Is it 2016 PTSD? Is it bend over backwards balance? That’s a bad thing, when the truth is called for. Still, the truth is making its way into the news.
“Vote for whoever you like in the primary.” Endorsed.
Michael Gerson/WaPo:
2016 taught us a lesson about Trump. Now we need to unlearn it.
The outcome of the 2016 presidential election reinforced a certain lesson. No, not that the universe is a cold, empty, meaningless void and that hope and justice are pretty lies told by self-deceived fools.
I mean the other lesson: Don’t underestimate Donald Trump.
All good lessons, however, are eventually overlearned, especially by once-burned political commentators. In this case, our reticence disguises just how weak Trump really is. While it is absurd at this point to predict anything about the 2020 presidential election, no sane candidate would prefer to be playing Trump’s hand.
WaPo:
Trump’s lost summer: Aides claim victory, but others see incompetence and intolerance
When President Trump presided over the battle tanks and fighter jets, the fireworks and adoring fans on July 4, he couldn’t have known that the militaristic “Salute to America” — as well as to himself — would end up as the apparent pinnacle of the season.
What followed was what some Trump advisers and allies characterize as a lost summer defined by self-inflicted controversies and squandered opportunities. Trump leveled racist attacks against four congresswomen of color dubbed “the Squad.” He derided the majority-black city of Baltimore as “rat and rodent infested.” His anti-immigrant rhetoric was echoed in a missive that authorities believe a mass shooting suspect posted. His visits to Dayton, Ohio, and El Paso after the gun massacres in those cities served to divide rather than heal.
Trump’s economy also began to falter, with the markets ping-ponging based on the president’s erratic behavior. His trade war with China grew more acrimonious. His whipsaw diplomacy at the Group of Seven summit left allies uncertain about American leadership. The president returned from his visit to France in a sour mood, frustrated by what he felt was unfairly negative news coverage of his trip.
That ‘salute to himself’ was itself a debacle. if that is the highlight, yowzers.
Craig Gilbert/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
Both sides in 2020 election fight are watching farm country for political fallout from Trump tariffs
Asked to sum up perceptions of tariffs among farmers he talks to, Lippert said:
“Some of them are supportive of the president and say, ‘We just have to be patient. We’ve not been (treated) fair and the president is going to fix it.’ Then some of them are like, ‘We’ve given him enough time already.’ And there are others who are like, ‘No this wasn’t the way ever to do it.’ But they all uniformly think that loss of markets and the tariff thing is hurting them.”
Speaking of WI, the latest MULaw poll drops this afternoon.
Speaking of pollsters, from the Atlantic:
Iowa’s Most Famous Pollster Faces Her Toughest Test Yet
J. Ann Selzer is still waiting to find out exactly what the country’s first nominating contest will look like.
Her survey method, which she has called “polling forward,” is unusual because, unlike other pollsters, Selzer attempts to anticipate the makeup of a future electorate with little regard for voters’ past patterns. Selzer’s surveys screen voters based on a single question: whether they will attend the caucuses. If they answer “definitely” or “probably,” she counts them in her poll as likely voters and takes their candidate preferences into account. If they don’t, she doesn’t. Selzer doesn’t consider prior voting history or make any other predictions about turnout. Rather, she operates under the premise that the past is not always prologue. “I don’t assume anything,” she said.
The Iowa caucuses this year, with all of their unknowns, could perhaps be the ultimate test of her method. The virtual caucuses were the Democratic Party’s response to years of voter complaints that visiting precinct sites in person is too difficult—especially for those with inflexible work or personal schedules—and takes too long. Even before news of the DNC’s worries first broke yesterday morning, party officials didn’t know what to expect from the virtual event, and voters, according to Selzer’s June poll, didn’t know what to think about it either. The DNC’s decision, and the state party’s promise to somehow expand accessibility, adds yet more unpredictability.
Politico:
Mikie Sherrill Is Not Feeling the Pressure
Impeachment chatter hasn’t budged the New Jersey moderate. And it’s working for her.
“Thank you, Representative Sherrill,” Gary Schraft began. “We appreciate what you’re doing to make this district a much better district. And we applaud you for having these town hall meetings because our last congressman refused to have them.” Many of the people in the tightly packed crowd last week clapped and cheered at this assessment. Sherrill let the ovation subside. “I sense a but coming,” she said with a smile.
She was right. But the but was less a question and more a warning. Schraft invoked the name of an ill-fated congressman from this area who won in 1972, defended Richard Nixon in 1973 and lost in 1974. “And President Trump, I believe, and a lot of people believe, is 10 times worse than President Nixon,” Schraft told Sherrill. “That’s why we really would like you to support—like many other members of Congress—an impeachment inquiry.”
This drew another roar of approval, and again Sherrill let the noise die down. And in this moment of relative quiet, in this overwhelmingly Republican borough in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, a district that hadn’t voted for a Democrat in 3½ decades before it voted for Sherrill last year, the low, firm voice of a woman floated from the rear of the room.
“Don’t do it, Sherrill.”
Good read for those who wonder “why not”?
Hey, NC09 is coming up next week!
Dave Wasserman/NBC:
Trump faces more 2020 danger if Democrat scores upset in N. Carolina special election
Analysis: The closely watched Sept. 10 vote will fill a House seat that is vacant after last year's results were invalidated due to election fraud.
The final unresolved House race of 2018 is set to conclude Sept. 10 when Marine Corps veteran Dan McCready, a Democrat, faces off against Republican state Sen. Dan Bishop. And although Democrats already rocketed into the House majority last November, this do-over election means much more for the Republicans, who are desperate to avoid an embarrassing setback in a critical 2020 state.
North Carolina's 9th District, anchored by Charlotte's suburbs, shouldn't be a toss-up: in 2016, President Donald Trump carried it 54 percent to 42 percent, more than triple his statewide margin of victory. Yet, the "Battle of the Dans" is going down to the wire.
And for those watching the UK (with a looming new election):
Ian Dunt:
Historic rebel victory: Parliament moves to stop no-deal
Boris Johnson issued a statement on the G7 summit in the early afternoon. He had barely started talking before Conservative MP Phillip Lee walked across the floor of the House, turned to the right, rose up the steps and sat beside Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson.
It was a moment of high political drama. Swinson is mercenary in how she utilises these moments for the strongest possible impact. Johnson saw him, lost his trail of thought, and suddenly there was a flicker of despair in his eyes. He had a majority of one and it was now gone, right in front of him. He literally watched it walk away.
It seemed to fundamentally destroy his confidence…
The Conservative party is turning into something much darker, more toxic and brutal. It is now represented on the front bench by a collection of incompetents and reactionaries who cannot perform at the level government demands. Its remaining big beasts are being cast into the wilderness.
But that was of secondary importance to the constitutional fight. A dangerously populist government had tried to bully parliament into irrelevance. Parliament had fought back. For MPs, on the opposition benches, operating in line with their leadership, that will have been relatively easy. But for those 21 Tory rebels, it threatened their career, their party: everything. It required extraordinary bravery.
Labour does not want an election after Oct 31, and wants a guarantee Johnson won’t agree to an election, then change the date. They do not trust him.
And of course the lesson for the GOP: