Post carbon fuels for RVs and Trucks
For as far back as I can remember I’ve been a conservative. I’ve tried my best to conserve my income by not spending more that was prudent. I have been worried about the disposable nature of the products produced for the U.S. consumer and tried to limit wherever possible our contribution to the land fill. Recently, over the last 10 years our source of hot water and electricity has become more and more for solar energy.
My education was focused on science from pre-med to IT, and I have participated in scientific research and publishing results. Most people don’t know that published reports from scientists are extremely conservative. The findings and results of published reports are typically 99% to 95% certain to be accurate. Think about that. If you were 95% certain that every time you mad a bet you would win, you would probably set land speed records getting to the casino. This is the super conservative reality for the super majority of independent, repeatable reports and projections found in scientific journals across the world concerning the changes to the world-wide climate.
As a world we are faced with reducing the amount of carbon-based molecule that are entering the atmosphere. There is a preponderance of evidence that the more carbon-based molecule are suturing the atmosphere, the warmer the atmosphere becomes in addition to the increase of acidification of seas and other bodies of water. The most recent projections indicate that by 2030 the carbon saturation will reach a tipping point which will result in significant damage to all life on this planet. This report, like the ones mentioned earlier are making projections at least at the level of 95% certainty, which is not a level at which I would bet against.
Sooner rather than later our source of energy and power for our machines will have to move from combustion engines to electric motors.
How does climate change impact RVs?
This means that my 2005 motor home (MH) that has 8 cylinders and gets 8mpg, will be in the cross hairs of this change. If carbon fuel prices become tens of dollars per gallon, I will not be able to afford to fill the 75-gallon gas tank. The RV industry will be hit hard but the blow will be nothing compared to that received by the trucking and rail and airline industry.
The potential silver lining in this scenario is that the pressure to ramp up both electrical drive train systems and the energy sources for those systems is great and increasing daily.
Across the spectrum of media dealing with this paradigm change, the phrase could be “it’s the infrastructure, stupid”. Will power plugs replace gas pumps? How will we build out the alternative fuel infrastructure? How far can these e-vehicles drive between recharges?
Here is my humble opinion.
Now, today, is the time to start setting the specification for the energy packs that these e-vehicles will need. The reason for doing it now is that, based on my work setting standards in the last century, there are two windows of opportunity to establish as standard: before any actual device is constructed, and after it is no longer used. Setting the specifications does not preclude innovation, just look at the Internet as an example of standards and innovation. The source of the energy provided by the energy pack could be batteries, fuel cells, or some other emergent technology. The point is the interchangeability and energy source independence.
Here’s an example: I drive my MH into the Flying-E or Lov-Es and pull up to the island where I swap out my energy pack with a fresh one, get credit for the used one, pay for the replacement pack and drive off to my next destination. In some cases when I connect to the shore power at the RV park, recharging my energy pack is included in the camp site fee.
What is more, the high torque electric motors driving my MH’s wheels laugh at those up-hill mountain grades, and my energy pack sucks in all the energy from the motors-turned generators on the down-hill side.
Will the necessary move from combustion powered machinery to electric driven machines be disruptive? You bet it will. Ask the Buggy whip industry. Of course, we don’t have to make the change, unless we and our children want to keep living on this planet.