The above graph shows the patterns in changing non-drug OD death rates of three ages groups for Non-Hispanic Whites in the United States. Below, the summarized demonstrates what the graph means, how you can replicate accessing the data it is based upon, and offer possible explanations for the causes of the changes in death rates it displays.
The graph shows the standardized age groups’ mortality measures; that means each displayed measure has an average of zero and a standard deviation of one (1). In the above graph, the green dots represent the death rate trend for Whites ages birth through twenty-four (24). The 1999 data show the highest crude death rate at 61.2 per 100,000. The 2017 rate is lowest at 49.2 per 100,000. That is a 19.60% decline in the crude death rate. In terms of death rates, trending downward substantially is positive. The middle aged, 25-64, move in the opposite direction. The crude death rate increases from 343.6 to 398.7, 55.1 points, or a 16.0% increase in the death rate. An increase this substantial is terrifying. Most of the readers of this are probably in this group. While this is a grave situation, you need to know it to fix it. The elderly, shown in the gold dots, death rate declined from 5256.3 in 1999 to 4281.2 in 2017. A 975.02 point, or 18.6%, decline in death rate. Consider this: in the United States the death rate for the young and the old drops by almost a fifth (20%), while the middle age death rate increases by almost a sixth (16.67%). A reasonably critical reader, might doubt that this presentation of data is reasonable and accurate.
However, a rational person should doubt, or at least question, the graph presented above. In fact when I found this data, I had to go back and look at it several times and I even called the Bureau of Vital Statistics and talked to my doctor before I trusted it.
In order to evaluate the report, I will take you to the data source and walk you through the steps to get the raw data reported above. Following these instructions will give you access to data to evaluate the above presentation. It will also teach you how to access this official and rich source of mortality data in the United States.
First, open a new window in your web browser and copy and paste or type in:
http://wonder.cdc.gov
Approximately halfway down the left column of links in the white window displayed, click “Detailed Mortality”.
This takes you to a page where you agree not to violate confidentiality. You should read this before you use any data you get here. If you agree to the terms, click “I Agree”.
The data selection menu is complex and gives you substantial control over the data you can retrieve from this site. Please follow my instructions carefully.
In Section 1, Click the “Group Results by” menu bar and scroll down to select “Year”.
For now leave section 2 alone.
In the left window in section 3, click and hold mouse down on <1 year through 15-24 years until you have four lines shaded that will produce data for ages 0-24.
In the “Hispanic Origin” window click “Not Hispanic or Latino”.
In the Race Window click “White”.
Next, in section 4: Click on 1999, hold the mouse button down, and scroll all the way down to 2017. This will give you data for every year in this graph.
Section 5 is another easy one, skip it.
In section 6 click the button on the left in front of “Drug/Alcohol Induced Causes”, hold the mouse button down and scroll down to the bottom of the window before releasing the mouse button. The bottom 2/3s of the window should be selected.
Skip section 7.
Click a “Send” button.
You should have a table that shows a declining death rate from 61.2 in 1999 to 49.2 in 2017.
If you have basic statistical skills you should be able to convert this column of numbers into standardized scores, Z-scores, and compare them with graph at the top.
Next, click the back button.
When back at the data selection menu click the “Cancel Request” button under the moving red bar.
Go down to the “Ten-Year Age Groups” window and select the ages that cover 25-64.
Click another send button.
You should have another data window that shows the middle age death rate going up from 343.6 in 1999 to 398.7 in 2017.
Again if you can calculate Z-scores, see how they compare with the graph above.
Click the back button to make your final data request.
Click the “Cancel Request” button again.
Select ages 65-85+, and click the “send” button.
Treat these results like you treated the results for the younger groups.
Once you have done this, please let this list know what you found.
What is causing this? First, the elderly have substantially increased access to health care through Social Security/Medicare absorbing most of the cost. The young have had a lack of coverage by private insurance mostly covered by Medicaid/SCHIP.
For the middle aged? The first answer to this was provided by my doctor, Samuel Saliba, in Montgomery, Alabama. On my first doctor visit after I found this, I asked him about it and he immediately and emotionally responded that private health insurance was denying coverage, even in cases where the treatment was relatively inexpensive. When I asked an insurance agent I know, s/he does not want their name mentioned here, s/he paused for several seconds before saying: “We NEED to move to socialized medicine.”
Now, I have been unable to get anyone in the standard news media, I have tried several, to cover this. If you can get someone in the media, or presidential candidates supporting socialized medicine, to start covering this, you can tell them to contact me at:
pecanjim@bellsouth.net.