Based on input from EldritchForge, I corrected NJ-05 to Likey D from Tossup.
Unfortunately, 270ToWin doesn’t give you an account to store your work in and when I was looking at the pundit maps, I lost mine. So I recreated my map and stored my link in an email to myself. As a data developer, I am cringing to be using such methods.
But in the process of recreating my map, I improved it. More thoroughly reviewed 538 polls, Cook, Inside Elections, and added Politico ratings as a source.
The net result is 230 D, 21 Tossup, 184 R, and about a dozen Safe leads on both sides were moved into less certain categories.
Here are the closest House races, according to polling and pundit ratings. Will finish this list in the next update.
Leans D
CA-21 Rep. TJ Cox, a chemical engineer and solid Democrat, rather accomplished for a freshman, with a 100% Planned Parenthood score, focusing on Natural Resources, Agriculture and Health, defends his seat against the Republican he beat in 2018, David Valadao.
CA-48 Rep. Harley Rouda, an Orange County lawyer and former Republican until 1997 and Independent from 1997 to 2017, is considered a moderate, but he fits right into the Democratic pack according to the GovTrack ideology chart and has a 100% Planned Parenthood score in his one term since ousting Dana Rohrabacher. Rouda won the jungle primary and will face Michelle Steel, Orange County Board of Supervisors Chair, an anti-choice woman originally from Korea married to California’s RNC member.
FL-26 Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a college administrator originally from Ecuador, focuses on Health issues and the Judiciary and Transportation committees. Ideologically she’s in the center of the Democratic pack but doesn’t score as high in leadership as fellow freshmen Cox and Rouda.
GA-6 Rep. Lucy McBath became active in politics after her son’s murder by a gun and edged out Republican incumbent Karen Handel in the affluent northern suburbs of Atlanta. She is ever so slightly more moderate than the three freshmen above and just about matches Rouda in accomplishments.
GA-7 Carolyn Bourdeaux, a public policy professor who came within 500 votes of beating incumbent Woodall in 2018, will face Rich McCormick. Woodall did not run this year.
IA-3 Freshman Rep. Cindy Axne, will defend her seat against the man she beat in 2018, David Young. She is on the moderate side of the Democratic pack, but does also get a 100% score from the Planned Parenthood Fund.