The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll on the 2020 Presidental race came out. This is a national poll of all voters, in which both registered Democrats and Independents were asked about the Democratic primary candidates, and respondents were allowed to answer “don’t know”. The topline numbers are:
- Don’t know: 23%
- Sanders: 17%
- Biden: 15%
- Warren: 10%
- Bloomberg: 6%
- Buttigieg: 5%
- Yang, Steyer: 3%
The poll included several other questions, like about who is best about specific issues, and data in the linked pdf document is given for all respondents as well as Democrats and Independents separately. What I want to call attention to is the glaring contradiction apparent in the contrast between Joe Biden’s support among Democrats and Independents. Particularly in the candidate support question and the question on who is most likely to beat Trump:
(For those who can’t see images on their work computers: on the candidate they’d vote for, 21% of Democrats but only 5% of Independents would pick Joe Biden; on being the most likely to beat President Trump, 35% of Democrats, but only 10% of Idependents pick Joe Biden.)
There is no other way to interpret this than that a sizeable plurality of Democrats are very mistaken about electability. If they think Biden is the most likely to beat Trump, then they must believe that he would attract the most voters outside the circle of the committed Democratic base. But Independents, the bulk of actual people outside that base Biden is supposed to attract, are much more sceptical.
If you check the four questions on policy (who is best on immigration, healthcare, the environment and the economy), you again see a strong disconnect between Democrats and Independents when it comes to Biden.
Of course, there are deeper issues with electability arguments as commonly made (most people judge it based on pundits and a superficial reading of polls rather than make up their own mind; most polls don’t measure voter enthusiasm, which is a key element for the all-important factor of turnout; electability is not some static quality but includes resilience during the unavoidably nasty general election campaign to come, where some candidates can soar like Obama while others falter like Kerry and Hillary). But I think is one is key: precisely those Democrats who are most concerned about getting the support of the widest range of fellow Americans are the most mistaken about the preferences of those fellow Americans.