Senator Bernie Sanders has taken the lead just weeks prior to the Iowa Caucuses according to a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll. The Des Moines Register reports that “20% of likely Democratic caucus goers name Sanders as their first choice for president”.
This puts the Vermont Senator and Democratic Socialist 3 points ahead of U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 17%, 4 points ahead of Pete Buttigieg at 16%, and 5 points ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden at 15%.
Allowing for the 11% undecided, this indicates that fully 74% of likely caucus goers prefer a different candidate to Joe Biden. If that number holds true it may spell trouble for Biden’s main selling point; the claim that he is the most electable candidate on offer.
According to J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll, the results upend earlier assumptions by some that Sanders was a spent force politically.
Could Sanders gain the Iowa caucuses win that eluded him in 2016? Selzer said the data suggest it’s entirely plausible.
“There’s just the Bernie factor,” Selzer said. “Which is (even) stronger than we saw in the last cycle.”
Although this is the first time in his back-to-back races for president that the Vermont senator has led the Iowa Poll, his support this cycle has remained remarkably firm — a fact his campaign has worked to exploit.
Sanders' supporters are more likely than those who support the other leading candidates to say their minds are made up (59%), and they are “extremely” enthusiastic about their candidate (49%). Just 32% of Warren's supporters describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic, and 26% each for Biden and Buttigieg.
“There was a thought that his support was a holdover from when he ran before and that that would evaporate,” Selzer said. “It certainly has not evaporated."
According to the Poll results, the top three issues driving likely caucus goers are health care, climate change and the gap between the rich and poor.
This is further cause for the Biden campaign to pause and reflect since Foreign Affairs, an area where Biden can plausibly claim the most expertise, only manages to rank 4th. Some 11 points behind health care and climate change.
The poll was being taken as the confrontation between the U.S. and Iran was unfolding but it isn’t clear what effect they may have had, or could have, on those numbers.
Not time for Sanders supporters to start popping Champagne corks just yet though. As Selzer notes:
“There’s no denying that this is a good poll for Bernie Sanders. He leads, but it’s not an uncontested lead”
Adding;
“He’s got a firmer grip on his supporters than the rest of his compatriots.”
There’s a lot more data provided regarding how respondents are making their choices and the current fluidity, not to say volatility, of the race. Read the whole thing and see what you think.