I have been very sharp in my criticism of Joe Biden, a friend pointed out. I now believe I was too harsh in my criticism. I believe I need to make a change and re-calibrate myself in my comments about Joe Biden. There must be lines we don’t cross for candidates who have as good a chance as any other candidate to be the nominee. There must be. Why ? Because we don’t want to do Donald Trump’s job for him. We don’t want to end up with a damaged nominee. This doesn’t mean that he can’t be criticized, but we need to retain perspective and context. The context and perspective is that Joe Biden has a better chance of becoming the nominee than any other individual candidate and if he is the nominee, either he or Donald Trump will be president in 2021 and we can’t afford Donald Trump to “win reelection”.
I am not a big fan of Joe Biden. He was well down my list of candidates. Out of the list of top tier candidates we have, he is ahead only of Buttigieg and Senator Bernie Sanders (and only ahead of Sanders because of electability concerns, not policy). I am disappointed that we no longer have any candidates of color other than Andrew Yang. I am disappointed that Senator Warren is not where I had hoped. She still has time to move up. However, as I look at where things stand now, Biden is in first in Iowa somehow [somehow is because it is a contradiction to Selzer and because voters who vote in the Iowa Democratic Caucus tend to be more progressive than in many other states- the somehow is not at all meant as a slight upon Joe Biden to be clear] according to Monmouth (Aplus rated but the gold standard is the Selzer poll which shows Bernie in first but keeps Biden within five in Iowa ) and he is either in first or near first in New Hampshire. Then, we have Biden in first in Nevada ! And we come to South Carolina.
This is not rocket science. If Biden is near the top in both Iowa and New Hampshire and wins Nevada and then comes South Carolina, what do people think is going to happen ? This is why Joe Biden’s probability of winning the nomination according to 538 is twice that of Bernie’s and Senator Warren’s probability is only one in eight. Joe Biden has a twenty point lead in the polls in South Carolina and is much stronger than his opponents among African Americans. In my view, our base, African American women, have earned the right to choose the nominee. Their choice is Joe Biden.
This looks like it is set up very favorably for Joe Biden. He is almost an even bet with the field. We are less than a month from the Iowa caucuses. Donald Trump is in the White House. He has done enormous damage to this country. If he wins reelection, the country may never recover. We can’t present a damaged nominee who loses to Trump.
Does this mean there should be no criticism ? Of course not ! But it does mean that we should not attack his character and post 3 smear or hit diaries a day against Biden and we should make it clear that he will be a good president and much, much better than Trump. It is not enough to say that he will be better than Trump. If we Democrats say he will be a mediocre or bad president even if we say that he will be better than Trump, then people who listen to us who are not committed Democrats are less likely to show up at the voting booth and that can prove to be the difference between Trump winning reelection and Trump not winning reelection and the country beginning to recover or at least not continue to fall beyond recovery.
Criticize him within context and perspective. Critique his policies to move him to where our party is. Let’s keep it clean. We will need to unite around our nominee and there is a pretty good chance that it will be Joe Biden. He was a pretty good Vice President. As Brainwrap wrote, although his plan for health care is not as progressive as we would like, it would be much better than what we currently have. He has overcome great tragedy and continued to serve the country. He didn’t become a member of the super wealthy while in Congress. He continued to take the Amtrak trains and talk to the conductor and the people. He supports a woman’s right to choose and his nominees will be different than Trump’s. Iraq was 17 years ago. He will be less likely to start a war with Iran. He understands that we humans cause climate change and global warming through carbon dioxide emissions. He supports unions. He will be much, much better than Donald Trump if he wins the primary and the general election. He will be a good president if he wins.
I am going to try to keep my own criticism of Joe to be reasonable, not attack his character and make clear my belief that even if he is not my top choice I think he is a good person who will be a good president and a much better president than Donald Trump. I hope we all can criticize Joe without attacking his character and while making clear that he will be a good president if he wins and that he will be a much better president than Donald Trump has been.
I still support Senator Warren and then Senator Klobuchar over Vice President Joe Biden. I trust Senator Warren and I believe a woman CAN win the White House and defeat Donald Trump. My first choice is Senator Warren. My second choice is Senator Klobuchar. My third choice is, due to electability reasons, Joe Biden. My fourth choice is Bernie Sanders.
Again, I support criticism of Joe Biden, but reasonable criticism within context and perspective, not scorched earth stuff.
Change has to start with somebody and it might as well be me. I may be the first to recognize I need to filter my criticism of Joe Biden, but I hope that I am not the last.
If Biden is the nominee, his vice presidential running mate will be crucial. First, it will be crucial for ideological reasons. He will need an unabashed progressive, hopefully a person of color or a woman. He will need the support of communities of color and women and progressives to beat Trump in the electoral college. Second, simply due to his age, it is vital he pick a well qualified person to be his running mate. We all wish him great health, but at his age, the simple fact is that he might not be able to serve out his term. We would all hope that this never materializes. However, it is distinctly possible. Therefore, his choice of running mate will be scrutinized and must be somebody prepared to be president on day one. Senator Harris or Senator Booker would be the best choices. Failing that, either Secretary Castro or Senator Warren. I would hope he would NOT pick a moderate as a running mate because that very likely could lead to defeat.
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2020 · 7:00:17 AM +00:00 · Dem
538 simulations have him averaging 1503 pledged delegates and hundreds of delegates ahead of all other individual candidates. Superdelegates will not overturn the pledged delegate victor. If Joe Biden wins a healthy plurality of the pledged delegates, Superdelegates will support him since he will have earned more pledged delegates from Democratic voters than any other candidate. If they did otherwise, they would be overturning the will of the voters.
1503 pledged delegates for Vice President Joe Biden
1022 pledged delegates for Senator Bernie Sanders
737 pledged delegates for Senator Elizabeth Warren
506 pledged delegates for Pete Buttigieg
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2020 · 4:52:45 PM +00:00
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Dem
A supporter of a certain candidate doesn’t feel the need for avoiding character attacks of a candidate who has a much better probability of being the nominee than any other candidate. This doesn’t surprise me given … I first joined Daily Kos in 2005, but lost my password. I have seen some harsh primary fights. 2016 was the worst one I have seen. I regularly saw three diaries attacking the character of the candidate who became the nominee. These diaries did not simply critique the policy differences of the candidate who became the nominee and the preferred candidate. They labeled her (the candidate who became the nominee because she won the most votes and the most pledged delegates ) as a corrupt person who loves to start wars and used all of the buzz drinking words . Then, their candidate said that she was not qualified to be president. This division started before March 15 when Marcos made his proclamation. It started before the first contests of the primary and grew more and more harsh. Then, her supporters responded with their own attacks. It was vicious and ugly.
During that time, it was common for some on the left to say that she would be as bad as Trump or not materially better than Trump. People who were not as committed to progressive politics heard this talk. Many of those on the left later would say that they were going “to hold their nose and vote “ for her. However, people in their sphere on influence heard their words and many of these people had no such tie to the left or to the Democratic Party and they reasoned that if a Democrat or progressive says that she is not better than Trump, why should I vote for her ? They had no ties to the party or to progressive cause and so they felt no obligation to hold their nose. They were confused why the progressive changed from saying she was no better than Trump to voting for Trump while holding the nose.
We lost by 80,000 votes over 3 states. There were many causes of the loss. The candidate and her schedule. The electoral college. Facebook ads. The Russians. Cheating. James Comey. But another cause is the division between the two candidates and their supporters.
This division was one of many reasons why we lost the White House. It is a cause that we can control . And it did not start from diaries and attacks after March 15 when we knew mathematically who was going to be our nominee. No, the division started from these awful, scorched-earth diaries that might as well have said that “Hillary Clinton is the Devil !” and they appeared early on during the primary season and retained their presence until March 15. We tried to unify after that time but by then the damage had already been done. There was anger and resentment on both sides. Sometimes, we simply cannot unring the bell.
There have been times where multiple diaries attacking Joe Biden filled the recommended list already during this primary. We don’t want it to worsen and have the divisions and animosity get set. The time to prevent it from happening is not after the damage is done. It is better to get an ounce of vaccine than to treat an illness later with pints of medicine later. The time is now, before the divisions are unable to be repaired. The way is for all of us to come together and fight fairly with constructive criticism focused on policy and avoid character attacks. The way forward is to acknowledge the simple truth that Joe Biden is a good man who will be a very good president and worlds better than Donald Trump if he is the nominee. Let’s not exaggerate the faults and flaws of Joe Biden. We all have our own flaws. I have more than most . All of the candidates have their own flaws and flaws. Let’s point out the positive aspects even of candidates whom we don’t support as proof of our intellectual honesty and integrity and to help make sure we win in November. If you can’t admit that Joe Biden has many great characteristics as a candidate and many character traits and abilities and knowledge which would serve him very well as a president than I would suggest that you are lying to yourself, building up yourself more than you should and lying to yourself about your own candidate who has his or her own flaws as well. Let’s retain perspective and context when we criticize Joe Biden. And why not write about the positive features of your candidate instead of attacking somebody else’s candidate.
My first choice is Senator Warren. My second choice is Senator Klobuchar. My third choice is Former Vice President Joe Biden. But it looks like he will be a very close second at worst in Iowa and the same in New Hampshire. That puts him at or near the top already. Then, he will win Nevada by double digits. Then, he will win South Carolina by a lot. He will have a tremendous amount of momentum. This is why he already is given a 40 % probability by 538 to win the nomination and the next highest candidate only has 20% probability. After the positive media attention from his results and his wins, his poll numbers will only improve and his probability may reach 50%. Therefore, considering he has a good chance of being our nominee, we need to be fair in our criticisms and retain perspective and context and acknowledge his positive character traits . The time to start that is now, before the divisions and animosity and anger make it too hard for us to unite around our nominee.