A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina offers few surprises, but a glimpse of a path to victory, for Democratic senate candidate Erica D. Smith, vying to take on Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in November.
Comparing PPP’s just-released results to the state’s preceding Fox News poll (Nov. 10-13) yields the unremarkable insight that television advertising works: Smith’s opponent, J. Calvin (Cal) Cunningham III, has taken a 10-point lead (22% to 12%) against Smith — his first in this race, and a strong improvement over his 5-point shortfall in Fox’s November poll.
Cunningham’s rising fortunes are due to his overwhelming air superiority on TV and cable, thanks to a $400K ad campaign by Vote Vets plus Cal’s own six-figure spend so far, compared to Smith’s zero-dollar ad budget. Cunningham has sugar-daddy Chuck Schumer to thank for that. Schumer’s early interference in the primary, declaring Cal to be party insiders’ Chosen One, opened party megadonor’s wallets to Cunningham while starving Smith’s campaign.
Still, there’s no such thing as a sure thing in North Carolina politics, where an unlooked-for anomaly in turnout demographics can — and not infrequently does — trump the big-spender’s conventional advantage. Just ask Democrat Dan McCready, from NC-09’s famed do-over congressional race last year: he lost to Republican Dan Bishop despite his 3-to-1 fundraising advantage over Bishop, thanks in no small measure to McCready’s inability to engage African Americans combined with a surprise spike in conservative Lumbee Indian turnout for Bishop.
Could Cunningham get Berned on super tuesday?
With the start of early voting just four weeks away (February 13th), the surprising news from PPP is that hardly any Democrats have made up their minds over the past two months. In November, Fox had the ‘don’t-know’ crowd pegged at 59% of likely Dem primary voters in this race, while yesterday’s PPP poll shows it still stuck at 60%...a whopping level of uncertainty at this late date. That’s especially surprising in light of Cunningham’s ever-present ads running in all of the state’s major media markets. The ‘don’t-know’ number stands in stark contrast to state Democrats’ presidential decision-making, where PPP reports that just 11% are still on the fence. And the most decided of all North Carolina presidential primary voters are the poll’s youngest (18 to 45 year-olds), 95% of whom know exactly whom they’ll vote for: Bernie Sanders at 39%, with Elizabeth Warren a distant second at just 19%.
Sanders’ North Carolina prospects might be relevant to Erica Smith’s own, because those same progressive young voters comprise her base, too. They’re the only demographic group cross-tabbed by both Fox and PPP among whom Erica Smith’s lead over Cunningham held rock-solid from November to January (Smith has a 7 point lead there in both polls). Voters in this age group comprise 41% of the state’s registered Democrats and 56% of its unaffiliated voters (who are permitted to vote in the Democratic primary if they choose to).
Smith’s resilient lead among younger voters makes sense for several reasons. Her barn-burning campaigning style speaks to them, while Cunningham’s calculated triangulation simply doesn’t (both candidates’ styles are on full display in this recent diary’s videos). Second, Cunningham’s considerable baggage as a former prosecutor of undocumented immigrants isn’t exactly what 2020’s young Democrats are looking for in their next senator’s resumé. Third, his windowless basement campaign strategy, imposed by Schumer in exchange for the promise of DSCC’s endless stream of Chuck Bucks, leaves Cunningham largely dependent on TV and cable ads to reach voters. But while folks age 65+ watch an average of seven hours of TV per day, young voters average less than two hours, rendering them all but unreachable via TV.
Finally, there’s the most obvious point of all: Smith is the progressive in this race, while Cunningham is its lite liberal, leaving him out of touch with young voters. Recognizing this, Cunningham’s team has pursued a whispering campaign suggesting that Erica isn’t a real progressive, but the message falls on deaf ears when voters compare the two state senators’ legislative records head-to-head:
Normally, a path to victory that hinges on young voters would be a road to nowhere, because their turnout — especially in a primary — is typically underwhelming, to put it mildly. But Sanders’ widely acknowledged genius for turning out young primary voters makes this anything but a normal election year. Smith’s path to victory might thus run through the likes of UNC’s Chapel Hill, Charlotte, Asheville, Wilmington, Greensboro and Pembroke campuses, Duke University, North Carolina State University, Guilford College, Winston-Salem State, Appalachian State, Fayetteville State, Wake Forest University, and HBCUs like North Carolina Central and North Carolina A&T (America’s largest HBCU).
Between them, the state’s 15 largest universities and 4-year colleges are home to 300,000 students. That’s more than twice Cunningham’s vote total In his 2010 senate primary bid, which he lost decisively to progressive Elaine Marshall.
The polls suggest that some 80% of those schools’ voters don’t yet know much of anything about either Smith or Cunningham, but they’re poised to turn out — mostly for Bernie. Try as he might, Cunningham isn’t going to set their hearts on fire with his campaign motto, “Chuck Schumer Says You Have To Vote For Me.” But Erica Smith’s inspiring message and style can, and will.