From 538:
The 10 states switching to primaries fall into two groups: those with government-run primaries and those with party-run ones. In Colorado, Minnesota and Utah, Democrats are moving away from caucuses in favor of newly established state-run presidential primaries, and Democrats in Idaho, Nebraska and Washington have opted to use their states’ existing primaries rather than caucus again. But Democrats in four other states —Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas and North Dakota — will hold party-run primaries because those state governments don’t hold their own. … One possible outcome of these changes is that we will likely see higher levels of voter participation because turnout tends to be higher in primaries than in caucuses.
In 2016, [Sanders] won all 10 caucus states that are moving to some type of primary in 2020….
… In 2016, Nebraska and Washington held Democratic primaries in addition to their caucuses, though the caucuses determined delegate allocation and the primaries didn’t count. While Sanders handily won the caucus in each state, Clinton won the higher-turnout primaries.
fivethirtyeight.com/...
When considering the 10 out of 18 caucus states that have switched to primaries for 2020, Nebraska and Washington are interesting cases studies because:
- Both states held 2016 caucuses which Sanders won
- Both states also held non-binding 2016 primaries which Clinton won
- Both states have switched to primaries for 2020
- In 2020, the Washington primary will be mail-in ballots only
CASE STUDY: NEBRASKA
2016 March Caucus(Turnout: 33,460 Voters)
- Sanders won 57 percent
- Clinton won 42 percent
2016 May Primary (Turnout: 80,436):
- Clinton won 59 percent
- Sanders won 40 percent
CASE STUDY: WASHINGTON
2016 March Caucus (Turnout: 26,345):
- Sanders won 73 percent
- Clinton won 27 percent
2016 May Primary (Turnout: 802,754):
- Clinton won 52.4 percent
- Sanders won 47.6 percent
Looking at the above numbers it’s clear voter turn-out is far higher in primaries than caucuses.
In fact, according to the United States Elections Project, the average 2016 caucus had turnout about 20 percentage points lower than the average 2016 primary. http://www.electproject.org/2016P
What I find more interesting is that the higher turnout of primary voters in these two states made the effort to vote in a primary that would not be counted.
What are other differences between caucuses and primaries? An opinion piece in The Hill makes an interesting distinction:
Repeat after me: A primary is an election. A caucus is a meeting. Got it?
… Attending a meeting is a bigger commitment than voting in an election. Not only that, but caucuses require something that should have gone away with the fall of the Soviet Union — public voting. Caucusgoers have to stand up in front of their friends and neighbors and God and everybody and declare their choice for the Democratic nomination. That is something most voters don’t want to do. As a result, voters who participate in caucuses are often ideologically committed activists. thehill.com/...
Common criticisms of caucuses include:
- Because most caucuses require an hours-long discussion, commonly held in the evenings, they have lower participation rates
- Caucus-goers tend to have more free evening hours or weekends when caucuses are typically held
- Caucuses tend to over-represent voters on the political extremes
- A caucus disfavors working people with small children who require babysitters for evenings and weekends when caucuses are typically held
- A caucus disfavors people with multiple jobs, night jobs and/or weekend jobs
- A caucus disfavors people who may depend on a public transportation that runs less frequently in the evening or on weekends when caucuses are typically held
- A caucus disfavors people with limited mobility and other health issues
- A caucus disfavors active-military service members
- Caucuses tend to have a higher number of white attendees
- Caucus voting can suppress voting due to all of the above
The 8 remaining states with Democratic caucuses in 2020 (excluding territories) are:
- Iowa
- Alaska
- Nevada
- North Dakota
- Kansas
- Wyoming
- Hawaii
- Maine
Among these eight states, in 2016, Clinton won Iowa and Nevada and Sanders won the remaining six states. You can see the delegate splits here: en.wikipedia.org/...
The good news is – with these 10 states switching to Democratic primaries in 2020, voter turnout will likely be higher.
The question is – which of our 2020 candidates will benefit from this change?
What say you?
CORRECTION:
It was called to my attention that the 2020 Nebraska primary will not be a winner-take-all primary. I deleted the sentence above.