The first terawatt of wind and solar came in 2018. Even before that, the world had a terawatt of hydro. So we are working on our third Green terawatt now, out of about 16 needed worldwide. Bloomberg NEF has predicted that the third will come in 2023. Fourth—How about 2027? Let’s gather some facts.
Me: The First Green Terawatt Was the Hardest
Getting to 100% renewable electricity will require trillions of dollars in new, and profitable, investments. The particular numbers in analyst forecasts are all irrelevant, because costs keep falling faster than they can imagine, even with past data in front of them. Also because the main obstacles to moving faster are political, not economic or technical.
There are, of course, other factors to consider.
- Electric vehicles could require 4T of electricity when fully developed.
- Bloomberg predicts 60% growth in overall electricity production by 2050.
Denialists love this.
How can we get to 100% renewables when demand from EVs will be so big?
We can't possibly add enough electricity for the poor of the world to reach First-World living standards!
You're telling us we have to cut back our living standards to do any of this!
It's OK, fellas. We know you don't have the sense to pound sand in a rat hole. But thank you for playing.
100% renewable energy—Wikipedia
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there are few fundamental technological limits to integrating a portfolio of renewable energy technologies to meet most of total global energy demand. Renewable energy use has grown more quickly than even advocates anticipated.
The first country to propose 100% renewable energy was Iceland, in 1998.[29] Proposals have been made for Japan in 2003,[30] and for Australia in 2011.[31]
- Albania, Iceland, and Paraguay obtain essentially all of their electricity from renewable sources (Albania and Paraguay 100% from hydroelectricity, Iceland 72% hydro and 28% geothermal).[32]
- Norway obtains nearly all of its electricity from renewable sources (97 percent from hydropower).[33]
- Iceland proposed using hydrogen for transportation and its fishing fleet.
- Australia proposed biofuel for those elements of transportation not easily converted to electricity.
- The road map for the United States,[34][35] commitment by Denmark,[36] and Vision 2050 for Europe set a 2050 timeline for converting to 100% renewable energy,[37] later reduced to 2040 in 2011.[38]
- Zero Carbon Britain 2030 proposes eliminating carbon emissions in Britain by 2030 by transitioning to renewable energy.[39]
- In 2015, Hawaii enacted a law that the Renewable Portfolio Standard shall be 100 percent by 2045.
Also,
Renewable Monday: Austrian Conservatives Go Green
Last Year
TrendForce forecasts 111 GW of new solar this year
The Taiwanese market research company said the effects of the 5/31 policy shift in China were less severe than expected, and in 2018 the global solar market grew 4.9%, with approximately 103 GW of new additions. This year, the solar demand is forecast to rise another 7.7%.
Others say lots more.
China installed 43.6 GW of solar last year – despite 5/31 New Policy
Central subsidies may have been cut back but the domestic market rebounded quickly and overseas shipments soared on the back of rising production volumes and ever cheaper module prices.
Indian Railways plans to tender 4 GW solar project
The procurement will be worth an estimated $2.25 billion, and will stipulate the use of 1.2 GW of Indian-made equipment. The power generated will replace 4 GW of coal-fired electricity consumption used by the railways.
Around 20 manufacturers, including ABB, Huawei, Delta and Sungrow, are said to be interested in manufacturing the equipment given sufficient demand, according to the Times of India. “This is a historic step towards Indian Railways becoming a net zero emitter by 2030,” railways and coal minister Piyush Goyal told the daily newspaper.
As part of the Go Green Initiative, the train operator has already installed around 71.19 MW of rooftop PV on stations and service buildings and the company is planning to add solar panels to the rooftops of its rolling stock. It has already installed panels on the rooftops of 19 narrow-gauge coaches and 23 broad-gauge non-air conditioned coaches that are in service.
Wasn’t there something like that in the Green New Deal?
PV Magazine e-mail newsletter:
And the good news didn’t even end there. With Italy’s unpredictable, 80s pop-group-inspired Five Star Movement having already announced ambitious plans for electric vehicles, Friday brought the news the Italian government wants 50 GW of solar by 2030. La dolce vita indeed.
UAE minister and OPEC chief says IRENA’s solar forecasts for Gulf nations will prove conservative
With the International Renewable Energy Agency’s number-crunchers predicting almost 5.4 GW of new solar across the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations today, Suhail Mohammed Faraj Al Mazroui said his nation alone would install 6-7 GW of new renewables capacity by 2024, as pv magazine editor-in-chief Jonathan Gifford reports.
At the launch, IRENA director-general Adnan Z Amin said: “When [IRENA] published the first edition of the report in 2016, the conversation was, ‘should we have renewables?’ We have moved the discussion to ‘how [do] we integrate? And how do we go further?’”
Sunny prospects for the Netherlands
The exhibition halls of the Solar Solutions Int. trade fair near Amsterdam are full and visitors seem optimistic. And for good reason, as 2 GW of PV capacity could be built in the Netherlands this year — a solid 40% jump on last year’s installations.
Netherlands a gigawatt solar market
The Dutch PV sector is expected to have grown by 1.3-1.5 GW in 2018. The growth, which marks the Netherlands’ entry into Europe’s gigawatt club, was mainly due to the connection of large-scale projects under the SDE+ program. The nation’s cumulative installed PV capacity should have surpassed 4 GW as the Dutch government prepares to reduce the SDE+ budget.
Canadian Solar’s PV module shipments surpass 6.6 GW in 2018
E.ON has begun construction on its Peyton Creek Wind Farm, a 151 MW project located in Matagorda County, Texas.
E.ON expects to commission the south Texas project before the end of the year. With the addition of Peyton Creek, E.ON will have more than 4 GW of wind, solar and energy storage projects online in the U.S.
EIA: U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation Has Doubled In 10 Years
Renewable generation provided a new record of 742 million MWh of electricity in 2018, which is nearly double the 382 million MWh produced in 2008, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA points out that renewables provided 17.6% of electricity generation in the U.S. in 2018.
Nearly 90% of the increase in U.S. renewable electricity between 2008 and 2018 came from wind and solar generation, according to the agency. Wind generation rose from 55 million MWh in 2008 to 275 million MWh in 2018 (6.5% of total electricity generation), which was exceeded only by conventional hydroelectric at 292 million MWh (6.9% of total generation).
EIA explains that increases in U.S. wind and solar generation are driven largely by capacity additions. In 2008, the U.S. had 25 GW of wind-generating capacity; by the end of 2018, 94 GW of wind-generating capacity was operating on the electric grid. Almost all of this capacity is onshore, with the exception of the 30 MW Block Island Wind Farm, located offshore Rhode Island.
Similarly, installed solar capacity grew from an estimated less than 1 GW in 2008 to 51 GW in 2018. In 2018, 1.8 GW of this solar capacity was solar thermal, 30 GW was utility-scale solar PV and the remaining 20 GW was small-scale solar PV.
EIA says the growth in renewable technologies in the U.S., particularly in wind and solar, has been driven by federal and state policies and declining costs. Federal policies such as the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009, as well as the production tax credit and investment tax credit for wind and solar, have spurred project development, in addition to state-level policies, such as renewable portfolio standards, which require a certain share of electricity to come from renewable sources over time.
Further, as more wind and solar projects have come online, economies of scale have led to more efficient project development and financing mechanisms – which has led to continued cost declines, the agency explains.
Nevada Senator Proposes 50% Renewable Portfolio Standard
State Sen. Chris Brooks, D-Nev., has introduced legislation that would increase Nevada’s renewable portfolio standard (RPS) to 50% by 2030.
The bill would ensure the Silver State’s electricity providers meet at least 50% of customers’ energy needs with clean, renewable sources – including wind, solar and geothermal – by 2030. It also sets a goal of producing electricity from zero-carbon emission resources, equal to 100% of the state utilities’ sales, by 2050. Nevada currently requires 20% of its electricity to come from renewable energy sources, with that target increasing to 25% by 2025.
The newly introduced legislation has strong support from environmental groups such as Western Resource Advocates, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Sierra Club. Nevada voters overwhelmingly approved a similar ballot initiative (Question 6) during the 2018 midterm elections, the groups point out.
Wind And Solar Each Beat Natural Gas For New Generating Capacity In January
SUN DAY says total wind generating capacity (97.18 GW) is rapidly closing in on that of hydropower (100.33 GW) and seems certain to overtake it sometime this year. Meanwhile, the generating capacity of all renewables combined (254.57 GW) is about to surpass that of coal (264.49 GW) – again, very possibly in 2019.
Just for the US, that is.
Plans and Forecasts
Can We Reach 100 Percent Renewable Energy in Time to Avert Climate Catastrophe?
Ten years ago, two climate scientists, Mark Jacobson and Mark Delucchi, published a groundbreaking article in Scientific American outlining a road map for becoming 100 percent reliant on energy generated by water, wind and sun by 2030. This was something that needed to be done “if the world has any hope of slowing climate change,” the researchers warned at the time.
The article proved incendiary. “First of all, nobody believed it when we put out that paper in 2009,” Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, told Truthout. “It was a very pie-in-the-sky thought. There was a lot of criticism of it, and the negativity around the response was enough to make anybody depressed.”
Can the world run on renewables? Yes, Stanford researchers say.
Jacobson again, with lots more support this time.
Renewable Energy in 50 Years: 3 Predictions
Europe has set its goals as high as or higher than any other country for the next few decades. Under its current agenda, the European Renewable Energy Council has predicted an entirely renewable energy supply for European Union residents by the year 2050 (or earlier). The organization is relying on a culmination of elements, including increased investment, cheaper materials and increased accessibility to renewables for the typical consumer. Sound familiar? Seems doable.
The world will run on 100% sustainable energy by 2050.
Or 95%. Or 80%. It depends on who you ask.
100% Renewable Energy By 2050 Is Possible–Here’s How We Can Do It
Energy consulting firm Ecofys produced a report detailing how we can meet nearly 100% of global energy needs with renewable sources by 2050. Approximately half of the goal is met through increased energy efficiency to first reduce energy demands, and the other half is achieved by switching to renewable energy sources for electricity production.
95% Renewable Energy World Possible by 2050 with NO Technology Breakthroughs
This new analysis, “Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system,” published in Energy Strategy Reviews, examines demand scenarios for the major energy use sectors – industry, buildings, and transport – and matches them up to feasible renewable supply sources.
Hold up your hands now. Who thinks we won't have technology breakthroughs?
Thinking Big: NREL Study Shows 80 Percent Renewables Possible By 2050
We don’t need some crazy cool new technology or some groundbreaking invention. We aren’t waiting on the scientific community to make some breakthrough. Would revolutions in storage and batteries help us reach 100% renewable energy? Sure. But this 80 percent by 2050 target is possible with commercially available technology. That’s a big deal.
We need to transform our thinking about modernizing our electricity system — on everything from system planning and flexibility, to new business models and market rules. America needs to take the same approach it took with every other strategic infrastructure upgrade that unlocked economic growth in our past. From building railroads and highways to rural electrification, we focused our policies on capturing the scope and potential payoff of a major national project. That included providing the incentives to businesses and consumers through smart policy to lift all boats and increase economic productivity.
Renewable energy to expand by 50% in next five years - report
The International Energy Agency (IEA) found that solar, wind and hydropower projects are rolling out at their fastest rate in four years.
Its latest report predicts that by 2024 a new dawn for cheap solar power could see the world’s solar capacity grow by 600GW, almost double the installed total electricity capacity of Japan. Overall, renewable electricity is expected to grow by 1,200GW in the next five years, the equivalent of the total electricity capacity of the US.
That was the 2019 report, forecasting another terawatt by 2024. But the IEA is always behind the curve.
IRENA: Energy transition will see geopolitical “winners and losers”
The International Renewable Energy Agency has plotted the potentially dramatic impacts of a global transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels. Today’s A New World report notes the transition requires international cooperation to manage disruption, as it will leave behind countries and industries that fail to adapt.
At the start of its ninth annual general assembly in Abu Dhabi today, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released a report on the geopolitical impacts of the global expansion of renewable energy. As a result of the declining importance of coal, oil and gas, IRENA has forecast major shifts in geopolitical power structures – the precise nature of which remains largely unknown.
Outgoing IRENA director-general Adnan Z Amin spelt out the danger to the international community if the transition is not well managed, and what is at stake for nations and industries that fail to adapt.
The report, A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation, was compiled by an international panel of energy industry figures from governments, international organisations and industry. Contributions were made by a 12-person panel of commissioners, led by former Iceland president Olafur Ragnar Grimsson.
Japan’s cumulative installed PV capacity could reach 150 GW by 2030, from roughly 55.5 GW by the end of 2018, according to a new report by Tokyo based research firm RTS Corp.
The Japanese cabinet passed the nation’s fifth strategic energy plan last July. The latest version of the plan, which is revised every three years, maintained the government’s energy targets from the previous strategic blueprint. It kept the planned energy mix at the same levels, with renewables to account for 22% to 24% of the nation’s total electricity supply.
Pikers. Well, never mind, the markets will ignore the government.
That’s a quarter of the next two terawatts, from just one country.
Electricity demand in India would reach 840 GW by 2030 if the country’s gross domestic product grows at a rate of 6.5 per cent, as predicted.
To achieve its goal of generating 40 per cent of electricity from non-fossil fuels by 2030, India would have to install 500 GW of renewable energy generation capacity by 2028, according to Anand Kumar, Secretary of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, who was speaking at the India-Norway Business Summit 2019 which opened yesterday in New Delhi.
Of those 500 GW, 350 GW would be solar, 140 GW wind, and the remaining generation capacity would come from small hydro and biomass power.
India already has 75 GW of installed renewable energy capacity with another 46 GW under implementation. The 75 GW in place makes up around 22 per cent of the nation’s installed power generation capacity.
One of the biggest lies of the Global Warming Denialists was that India and China and the poor countries of the world would never join in. Then came COP15.
