Hamilton County, Indiana, located just north of Indianapolis, is the fourth-most populous county in Indiana. It is a fast-growing suburban county that, for most of its history, has been staunchly Republican. However, in the Trump era, it has trended Democratic. The Democratic trend is not due to an influx of minorities – Hamilton County is, and has always been, heavily white. The Democratic trend is instead due to college-educated white suburbanites leaving the Republican Party. Hamilton County can be divided into five parts, and I will discuss each of them.
The first is the city of Carmel, in the south-western part of the county. As of the 2018 population estimates from the Census, Carmel has roughly 93,000 people, making it the fifth-largest city in Indiana and the largest suburb of Indianapolis (though its neighbor Fishers is close behind on both counts). Carmel is full of wealthy, well-educated suburbanites who used to vote solidly Republican. In 2008, as Barack Obama was narrowly winning Indiana, Carmel voted 60-39 for John McCain, and that was seen as an exceptionally strong performance for Democrats at the time. Four years later, Carmel reverted to its heavily Republican roots and voted for Mitt Romney by a 65-33 margin. Most people at the time thought that Carmel would stay Republican for the foreseeable future. But then Trump came around, and despite Trump’s strong win statewide in Indiana, the well-educated suburbanites of Carmel reacted badly to him and voted for Trump by a margin of only 9 percent – 51-42. And two years later, even as Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly lost re-election by a 6-percent margin, Carmel swung even more to the left, voting for Republican candidate Mike Braun by only 47 votes – a margin of 0.11 percent. Therefore, from 2008 to 2018, Carmel moved from voting 11 points more Republican than the state as a whole to 4 points more Democratic than the state as a whole.
Next up is the neighboring city of Fishers, directly to the east of Carmel. Fishers is also a wealthy, well-educated suburb that is just barely smaller in population than Carmel. Fishers has also swung substantially to the left since 2008, though not quite as dramatically as Carmel. Fishers voted 59-40 for John McCain in 2008, one point to the left of Carmel and 10 points to the right of the state. Just like Carmel, it swung about 5 points to the right in 2012, voting for Romney by a 65-34 margin. And then, also like Carmel, it swung dramatically to the left in 2016, voting for Trump by a 53-39 margin, only 14 percentage points. That was the inflection point – pre-2016 Fishers was about 1 percentage point to the left of Carmel, while from 2016 onward it has been about 2 percentage points to the right of Carmel. Fishers voted for Mike Braun in 2018 by a margin of about 2 percent. Thus, Fishers went from being 10 points to the right of the state in 2008 to voting about 3 points to the left of the state in 2018.
Located in the geographic center of the county is the county seat, Noblesville. Noblesville has matured from a small town into a major suburb, however it is less well-educated than Carmel or Fishers and thus has not swung as far to the left as they have. Noblesville voted 62-37 for John McCain in 2008, 26 percentage points to the right of the state and 4 percent to the right of the county as a whole. Like everywhere in Hamilton County, it swung further to the right in 2012, voting for Romney by a 68-30 margin, 28 points to the right of the state and (again) 4 points to the right of Hamilton County. In 2016, it swung to the left, but by a smaller margin than Carmel or Fishers – it voted for Trump by a 62-31 margin. This was only 12 points to the right of the state, but now also 12 points to the right of Hamilton County. The difference between Noblesville and Carmel, only 6 percent in 2012, widened to 21 percent in 2016. And in 2018, Noblesville voted 57-39 for Mike Braun, which was again 12 points to the right of the state, and 10 points to the right of Hamilton County. Thus, Noblesville has moved left compared to the state, but since the state has moved to the right, Noblesville remains a solidly Republican city and will likely remain that way for a while longer.
Located directly west of Noblesville and north of Carmel is Hamilton County’s newest major suburb, Westfield. As recently as 2000, Westfield had fewer than 10,000 people, but as of the 2010 Census it had roughly 30,000, and recent estimates show it having over 40,000 people. Those people were originally mostly Republicans – Westfield voted 64-35 for John McCain, four percentage points to the right of Noblesville, 8 points to the right of Hamilton County, and 30 points to the right of the state. In 2012 it voted 69-30 for Mitt Romney, putting it one point to the right of Noblesville, five points to the right of Hamilton County, and 29 points to the right of the state. But in 2016, Westfield, with a more educated populace than Noblesville, moved further to the left, voting for Trump by a 58-34 margin. Thus, Westfield voted 7 points to the left of Noblesville, 5 points to the right of Hamilton County, and only 5 points to the right of the state. Westfield’s shift to the left continued in 2018, when it voted for Mike Braun by a 54-42 margin, which was 6 points to the left of Noblesville, 4 points to the right of Hamilton County, and 6 points to the right of the state. Thus, Westfield’s shifts have been the most consistent of any city in Hamilton County compared to the county as a whole – Westfield has consistently been between 4 and 8 percent to the right of Hamilton County.
Finally, we come to the rural areas of Hamilton County. These areas have been growing at a much slower rate than the suburban areas, and have notably different electoral trends. In 2008, they voted 63-36 for McCain, two percentage points to the left of Westfield, and then in 2012 they voted 69-29 for Romney, one point to the right of Westfield. But then, in 2016, while Westfield (and most of the rest of the county) lurched to the left, the rural areas actually swung further to the right, voting 68-25 for Trump, putting them 19 points to the right of Westfield. They had been only 5 and 6 points more Republican than Hamilton County as a whole in the 2008 and 2012 elections, respectively, however in 2016 they were 23 points to the right of Hamilton County. In 2018, the rural areas remained by far the most Republican area of Hamilton County, voting for Mike Braun by a 63-32 margin, 12 points to the right even of Noblesville, which is now the 2nd-most Republican area of Hamilton County. These trends are due to the fact that the educated voters in the remainder of the county, who are pushing the rest of it to the left, have not moved up to the rural areas, at least not yet. Thus, most of the voters in the rural areas are white working-class – precisely the kind who would swing Republican in 2016 and remain Republican in 2018.
Hamilton County as a whole used to be significantly more Republican than Indiana as a whole – it voted 23 percentage points more Republican than Indiana as a whole in 2008, and a very similar 24 points more Republican in 2012. But then, in 2016, Hamilton County shifted to the left while Indiana as a whole shifted to the right, with the result that both jurisdictions voted very similarly – both gave Trump margins of 19 percent. And that trend continued in 2018, with Hamilton County voting only two percent more Republican than Indiana as a whole. Considering the diverging political trends of Hamilton County and of Indiana as a whole, and Democrats’ lack of victories there in recent years, it is likely that the next time a Democrat wins Indiana, they will carry Hamilton County.
This line graph illustrates the political trends of Hamilton County’s cities.
Here are some township-level maps of Hamilton County:
And finally, a bonus map for those of you who made it down this far… a precinct-level map of the 2018 Indiana U.S. Senate election in Hamilton County.
Quick note about the poll: the final option should say “<50%”. I can’t change the poll after the article has been published.