On Thursday evening, news broke of apparent rocket strikes at Baghdad International Airport. But what at first seemed as if it might be an attack by militia forces actually turned out to be strikes by U.S. drones sent to assassinate visiting Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. The 62-year-old general was regarded as the most powerful military leader in Iran, and one of the top three figures in the Iranian government. Following his death, statements from the Pentagon and the State Department have indicated that Soleimani was “actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq”; however, the intelligence to support that claim has not yet been released. The Pentagon statement also indicated that the action was taken to deter “future Iranian attack plans,” but on Friday morning, tens of thousands are marching in the streets of cities across Iran, and the possibility of all-out war seems much, much closer.
The action, taken on the direct orders of Donald Trump, would seem to completely violate a longstanding executive order forbidding U.S. involvement in the assassination of foreign officials. Numerous congressional leaders have complained that Trump neither informed members of Congress nor sought any authorization under the Authorization for the Use of Military Force or any other authority. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi issued a statement expressing concern about the instability generated by this action and insisting that the full Congress be briefed about the situation. However, despite no briefing for the Gang of Eight or even the Intelligence Committee chairs, Sen. Lindsey Graham—who golfed with Trump on Monday—stated on Thursday evening that he was briefed on the attack in advance.
In addition to not briefing Congress, it appears that the Trump White House also did not let allied military or intelligence services know that the attack was coming. British officials have expressed concern about the possibility that U.S. forces could be forced to leave Iraq, creating even greater instability, and that the assassination of Soleimani will make it impossible for those still attempting to hold together the nuclear deal with Iran to continue any serious negotiations.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appeared on CNN Friday morning to explain that the “world is a much safer place today” because Trump authorized the assassination of Soleimani. This statement came immediately after a discussion of the State Department issuing orders for all American civilians to leave Iraq immediately and issuing travel warnings around the world. Which would not seem to be an indication that the world is “safer.” Confronted with statements from allies worrying that the action could generate unintended consequences, Pompeo stated bluntly, “They’re wrong.” Read statements from Iraqi leadership condemning the assassination, Pompeo responded that those leaders were telling him something else in private. And confronted by the idea that Iraqis may seek to remove U.S. troops from their country, Pompeo expressed certainty that the Iraqi public will “demand that the Iranians get out.”
The only comment from Trump was the tweeting of an American flag on Thursday evening, followed by an early-morning tweet claiming that “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation.” Which is not exactly a statement that makes it seem as if diplomatic solutions are even being considered.
The absolute, unquestioning defense of Trump’s action—one that says nothing bad can or will happen—is being reflected by multiple Republicans. Graham followed up his claims that he knew about the operation in advance with insistence that Trump should continue by attacking oil refineries inside Iran. Other Republicans joined Graham and Pompeo in treating the situation as if the U.S. can assassinate the top military leader of a hostile nation without consequence. Pompeo even stated that this was done to “de-escalate” the situation.
Meanwhile, Fox News is not only cheering the action and calling for more, but also claiming that Iran is already beaten. Former George W. Bush spokesperson Ari Fleischer appeared on Fox News Thursday night to declare that the assassination could be a “catalyst” for change inside Iraq, where “people celebrate the killing of Soleimani.” Other commentators claimed that Soleimani’s death represents a “crippling loss” to Iran’s military capability. These statements went hand-in-hand with Pompeo’s Friday morning claims that he believed the Iraqi people would “demand the Iranians get out.”
As thousands take to the streets in Iran, the silliness of Fleischer’s statement is already clear. But Pompeo’s statement is even more ridiculous, and the fact that the secretary of state is appearing on television to say that the world is safer—even as the State Department issues urgent warnings demonstrating otherwise—and that Iraqi leaders are happy with the action—even as those leaders are publicly saying otherwise—is grounds for more concern in a situation already loaded with potential disaster. Considering that the State Department and National Security Council have been completely hollowed out, and the few positions that remain filled are occupied by those most willing to tell Trump what he wants to hear, it seems unlikely that there is anyone in the White House delivering anything close to an accurate assessment of the situation.
Qassem Soleimani was an enemy military leader whose actions over the years likely contributed to the loss of hundreds of American troops. But his open assassination is an action that has consequences that no one can predict. The only thing that can be predicted is that the claims that this made the world safer are extraordinarily incorrect.