“Elections have consequences.” It’s one of the most overused aphorisms in politics. But that doesn’t make it untrue. It’s actually extremely true.
Never was it more true than in the aftermath of 2010, when Republicans rode a GOP wave (and a boatload of money) to dominance in statehouses all across the country. With their bumper crop of 21 new chamber majorities—and the resulting 11 government trifectas (control of the state House/Assembly, state Senate, and governorship)—Republicans lost zero time when legislative sessions convened in 2011 enacting their visions of restricting voting and abortion access while making it easier to harm the environment, obtain and carry guns, bust unions, shunt public school funding to private and religious institutions, and oh so much more.
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Did the results suck for large segments of the population in those states? Yup.
And as if those consequences weren’t bad enough, the timing of that 2010 GOP wave gave the party unprecedented dominance over the redistricting process, resulting in
- Extreme Republican gerrymanders at both the state legislative and congressional levels all across the country, which led to
- Nearly a decade of undemocratic GOP dominance at these levels of government resulting from these skewed districts.
But, as an erudite consumer of This Week in Statehouse Action, this is, of course, in no way news to you.
I only point it out because it turns out what was good for the goose doesn’t feel so good for the gander. You see, now that Democrats are the ones with trifecta control of Virginia government, Republicans are … struggling.
Meet Virginia: First the GOP tried to undermine the new Democratic leadership’s authority by suggesting that the new House speaker (who’s a woman for the first time in the commonwealth’s history) and her committee chairs (seven of which are chaired by lawmakers of color, and seven of which are chaired by women) are lacking in capability.
- Republican Del. Bobby Orrock routinely “bounces to his feet to challenge Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn” on what he claims are “procedural errors” as she presides over the chamber.
- Just over a week into the legislative session, Minority Leader (and guy who looks like maybe he beat up smaller kids on the playground to boost his own self-esteem) Todd “Two Ds” Gilbert gave what was described as an “extraordinary” speech to the House chamber, in which he claimed the movement of legislation was “too slow.”
Leave it to two white guys suddenly in the minority to take it upon themselves to question the competence of black and women lawmakers in power, hmm?
- The thing is, if Del. Gilbert is so concerned about legislation moving through the chamber, maybe he should have actually proposed some.
I can see the next election’s campaign literature now: Del. Todd Gilbert: Working Hard Hardly Working for You.
- Other Virginia Republicans, faced with policy proposals they disliked, accused Democrats of “abusing their new power.”
I’m pretty fuzzy on how having enough votes to pass legislation qualifies as “abuse,” though.
And it’s just so weird how these complainers thought it was okay to pass bills Democrats didn’t like when Republicans were in the majority.
- Another Republican has a solution to his party’s minority status woes: Give the heavily Democratic localities of Arlington and Alexandria back to Washington, D.C., of which they were a part until the 1840s.
- When pressed on his suggestion, Del. Dave LaRock invoked specters of conflict, saying that “this would be the most peaceful way to reconcile some of the situations that are kind of beginning to build,”—situations resulting from what he perceives as “dramatically different values” from those held by the rest of Virginia.
Too bad he’s super wrong about that.
- Democrats have majorities in the Virginia House and Senate because progressive values motivated a majority of voters in a majority of districts in regions all across the state to go to the polls last fall and cast their ballots for Team Blue.
And Democrats are very much putting these values into action.
- The Virginia legislature has, so far,
- Ratified the Equal Rights Amendment (which will now be tangled in a legal dispute about whether/how to actually add it to the U.S. Constitution for the foreseeable future),
- Moved seven gun safety measures through at least one chamber, including
- Universal background checks on private gun sales.
- Giving localities the authority to enact their own anti-gun violence ordinances, like banning firearms in public buildings.
- Reinstating the one-handgun-a-month law, which originally passed in the early 1990s but was repealed by Republicans in 2012.
- Rolled back several GOP-imposed restrictions on abortion access, including
- A medically unnecessary and totally pointless 24-hour “waiting period.”
- A medically unnecessary pre-abortion ultrasound.
- Shockingly, despite Democrats’ 21-19 majority in the state Senate, these abortion measures barely made it out of the chamber.
- One Democrat voted with Republicans against repealing these restrictions, resulting in a 20-20 tie that the Democratic lieutenant governor broke in favor of his party.
Appalling stuff, right? I mean, what Democrat in this day and age (who’s not named Dan Lipinski) would vote against protecting a woman’s right to make her own reproductive choices and medical decisions?
Goddamn Joe Morrissey, that’s who.
If you’ve been reading this missive for any length of time, you’re probably pretty well-acquainted with all the reasons Joe Morrissey Is A Problem.
But just in case you’re not, and because we should all keep in mind what an awful human he is, here’s a quick refresher.
- An attorney by trade (well, not any more—his law license has been repeatedly suspended and is currently revoked, as detailed below), Morrissey began making a notorious name for himself in the 1990s, and he really hasn’t slowed down since.
- His notable misadventures include:
- Going to jail for writing a threatening letter to a judge in 1991.
- Getting in a fist fight with opposing counsel, also in 1991.
- Settling a rape case without the consent of the victim in 1993.
- Having his law license suspended for six months for some of the above acts in 1993.
- Going to jail for 90 days, followed by three years of probation, for violating a federal court rule prohibiting making public statements about witnesses in 1999.
- Having his law license suspended for three years in 1999.
- Violating that three-year probation in 2000 by attempting to lie about his community service hours (with Habitat for Humanity!) and then lying to his probation officer about trying to lie.
- Losing his Virginia law license entirely in 2003 (he'd already lost his license to practice in federal court in 2001).
- Teaching trial advocacy and becoming a valued mentor to over 100 Crown prosecutors in Australia between 2003 and 2006—until the Australians realized he'd been deemed unfit to practice law in his home country.
- Returning to the United States, getting elected to the Virginia House of Delegates in 2007, getting his Virginia law license back in 2012, and brandishing an AK-47 on the House floor in 2013.
- Getting indicted for allegedly having sex with a minor, taking an Alford plea, going to jail, resigning his House seat, winning reelection to his House seat in the special election to replace himself, and attending the legislative session under a work-release program accommodated by his jail sentence.
- Then, instead of running for reelection to the House, he made his first run for Dance’s Senate seat (he withdrew before the primary).
- Running for Richmond mayor in a seven-way race that a leading candidate dropped out of for the express purpose of preventing Morrissey from winning by splitting the vote.
- Having his law license, which the Virginia Supreme Court had restored while he was in the House—counter to the recommendation of the Virginia State Bar—revoked yet again in 2018.
Anyway, Morrissey took on Rosalyn Dance again last year, and he defeated her in the June primary for SD-16.
- This district is overwhelmingly Democratic, so he waltzed right into the Senate in November.
This probably won’t be the last time Morrissey goes all chaos Muppet and casts his ballot against progressive values.
As demonstrated above, Morrissey has spent his entire adult life acting as though the conventions that govern normal human behavior don’t apply to him.
There’s no reason to think he’s going to change now.
All My Ex’s [sic] Live in Texas: This week saw a heavily contested House special election go down in the Lone Star State, and while the result definitely wasn’t what Democrats were hoping for, the news is far from all bad.
- Republican Gary Gates defeated Democrat Eliz Markowitz 58-42 on Tuesday to hold suburban Texas HD-28 for his party.
- Democrats aggressively targeted this race as part of a larger effort to flip the Texas House in November, but Markowitz's performance lagged behind Hillary Clinton's 10-point loss in 2016 and Beto O'Rourke's 3-point loss in 2018.
- One key reason Democrats underperformed in this contest is likely tied to Gates' heavy self-funding, to the tune of at least $1.5 million.
- Also, younger voters and Latinos, who are among Democrats' most important constituencies in Texas, are less likely to turn out for a weirdly timed special vs. a November general election.
- Markowitz and Gates will likely face off again in the fall.
The happy news here, though, is that Democrats don’t necessarily need this district to take the state House this fall.
Fun fact! Democrats need to flip nine seats to win a House majority.
Funner fact! In 2018, Beto O’Rourke won nine seats currently held by Republican state representatives.
Down to Mississippi (Up to No Good): Last November, Democrat Hester Jackson-McCray defeated the Republican incumbent in Mississippi House District 40 by 14 votes.
- A narrow win, to be sure, but a win nonetheless.
But (now-former) GOP state. Rep. Ashley Henley is a sore loser.
- Shortly after the election, Henley appealed the outcome of the election to the heavily Republican House, claiming she’d discovered “irregularities” that called the outcome into doubt and asking for a new election for that seat.
- After she filed the paperwork challenging the election results in December, those of us who’ve been around the legislative block a few times absolutely fretted that House Republicans would deny Democrat Jackson-McCray her seat.
- Because back in 2016, GOP lawmakers definitely screwed another Democrat out of a win—albeit a technical one.
- The 2015 race for Mississippi House District 79 resulted in that rarest of outcomes: a tie.
- State law provides a remedy for this circumstance: Specifically, the candidates draw straws.
- Democratic incumbent Bo Eaton drew the long straw, and he was consequently proclaimed the technical legal winner of the election.
- Republican Mark Tullos contested the result to the heavily Republican House, and the chamber voted mostly along party lines to unseat Eaton and install his opponent.
So yeah, there’s real concern that Mississippi GOPers might decide that Jackson-McCray didn’t win the election well enough for their tastes.
- But it looks like Republicans are going to decide to give voters a little actual democracy, as a treat.
- On Thursday, a House panel found Henley’s allegations of voting irregularities unpersuasive and recommended that Jackson-McCray’s victory stand.
- The full House is not obligated to abide by the recommendation of the panel, but most political observers feel confident that the chamber will vote to affirm the decision.
Michigan and Again: Last week in this space, I discussed two specific instances of Michigan GOP state Sen. Peter Lucido’s reported sexual misconduct—one toward a reporter, another with a fellow lawmaker.
- Lucido told the reporter that a group of teenage boys visiting the capitol “could have a lot of fun with [her].”
- He placed his hand low on the small of Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s back after the two exchanged an introductory handshake and said he “could see why” she’d defeated her opponent after pointedly looking her up and down.
This week, a third woman came forward with an account of harassment by Lucido.
- Melissa Osborn, a credit union regulatory affairs specialist, went public with a description of events similar to those described by Sen. McMorrow, including inappropriate remarks about her appearance, looking her up and down, and placing his hand barely above her butt for an extended period of time.
- The Senate Business Office, which is already investigating the other two Lucido incidents, has been notified of this latest complaint and is expected to add it to the existing inquiry.
Panic in Lansing: You know what would go a long way to changing the Lucido-enabling culture in the Michigan legislature?
A Democratic majority, that’s what.
- And according to new data from the intrepid Daily Kos Election crew, Democrats have a narrow—but very real—path to flipping the four seats needed to end the GOP’s majority in the state House.
- Because of their incredibly effective partisan gerrymander, Republicans have held on to their Michigan House majority since the 2010 wave despite Democrats winning more votes in three of the last four elections. [[screams into hands]]
- But in the 2018 gubernatorial election, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer carried 56 of the 110 seats in the lower chamber—which just happens to be the magic number Democrats need to take that majority.
- And wouldn’t you know it? Four Republicans happen to hold seats Whitmer won.
- Also helpful: No Democrats have to defend seats Republican Bill Schuette carried.
- These top Democratic House targets are
- HD-61 (54-43 Whitmer),
- HD-39 (53-45 Whitmer),
- HD-38 (52-46 Whitmer), and
- HD-45 (49.2-48.8 Whitmer).
- Slightly complicating matters, however, is the fact that three of these seats—HDs 39, 38, and 45—backed Trump in 2016.
- But districts 61, 38, and 45 will all be open seats this November, since their GOP incumbents will be term-limited out.
Flipping this chamber isn’t going to be easy, but this data strongly suggests that a Democratic majority in the Michigan House is absolutely within reach in November 2020.
By the by, you can find our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states; you can also find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.
Welp, that’s all for this week … and this month! Go on, take Friday off, celebrate the end of January. Haven’t you earned it? By which I mean, haven’t you survived it? These days, that feels like no mean feat. So yeah, knock off early. Just print this out and show it to your boss. I’m sure she won’t mind.