The EIA is infamous for its absurdly conservative projections for the growth of renewable energy. This year, in complete contradiction to every thing else going on in the Trump Maladministration, the EIA has begun to get with the program, and is now telling us when renewables will overtake natural gas in the US grid. They are still wrong, but far less wrong than before.
Renewables Set to Overtake Natural Gas in US Power Mix, EIA Says—GreenTechMedia
Last year in its Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA put natural gas at 39 percent of the power mix in 2050 under its base-case scenario, far outpacing renewables at 31 percent.
Fast forward to the 2020 Annual Energy Outlook, released Wednesday, and that prediction has been turned on its head: Renewables are now forecast to account for 38 percent of electricity in 2050 (up from 19 percent today), while natural gas will see its share drop to 36 percent (from 37 percent today).
It's all nonsense, of course. We will be at more than 100% renewable electricity in 2050, with the surplus being absorbed in a variety of industrial processes such as generating hydrogen, or perhaps turning waste into graphene.
Also, in the real world steam coal is going away completely. The EIA still holds out hope that the most efficient coal-burning plants can survive, but in fact renewables built new cost less than coal for existing steam plants.
Baby steps.
But there is more to this story. The next question is who is and who is not taking note of the changes at EIA, and what part of the tale they tell their readers.
How about The Hill, a major inside-the-beltway political newspaper? Good news.
Renewable energy predicted to surpass natural gas in US by 2045
WaPo. Doom and gloom plus good news.
The Energy 202: If the U.S. doesn't change course, carbon emissions will rise again in the 2030s
Report: Switch to renewable power picking up speed
The rest of the mainstream press? Fuggedaboudit.
Washington Examiner and American Petroleum Institute. How does this affect Bernie's plans and industry? With Oil and Gaslighting.
Daily on Energy, presented by API: Sanders eyes banning oil exports administratively
U.S. energy exports would take a big hit: Without any changes in policy, the U.S. is expected to become a net energy exporter this year, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest energy outlook released Wednesday. “Large increases” in oil and gas production, and slower growth in U.S. energy consumption, would help the U.S. maintain that net energy exporter status through the 2050s, the EIA projected.
Halting those exports, though, could have an impact on geopolitical tensions. A new report to Congress from the Center for a New American Security says the U.S. should continue exporting crude oil and LNG to Asian countries, recommending even that Congress should further reduce barriers to LNG exports.
Natural Gas Intelligence:
Abundant Lower 48 Natural Gas, Oil Resources Said Boon and Bane for U.S.
‘Gasmageddon’ Is Here, with NatGas Prices Averaging $1.99 in 2020, Say Analysts
Many have pointed out that
Renewable Thursday: Fracking is a Ponzi Scheme
but there are still plenty of Next Greater Fools ready to buy in, and buoy up the industry for years to come. At the same time, EVs will kill off gasoline in the next decade.
Don't wait to hear that from the EIA. They still don't quite believe in EVs.