First off let’s dispense with the polling. He polls 1-2 points better than Sanders and really all the Dem candidates are within the margin of error projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...Also, polls this far out are not very predictive as they miss by about 11 points on average. So in my view any Dem has about the same chance of beating Trump from the polls.
So we are all going with our gut on how the election would play out and the candidates strength of message and as a politician. This article expresses my fears about how a Biden candidacy will play out and what his weaknesses are particularly against Trump www.currentaffairs.org/...
These serious warning signs for Biden’s prospects include:
- Shockingly weak fundraising
- An uninspiring message that promises nothing to working families
- A low-energy campaign with no volunteer base
- A damaging corruption scandal which undermines his core message
- An inability to campaign vigorously
1, As of the third quarter fundraising period, he had raised just $37.6 million, barely more than Kamala Harris. He had only $9 million cash on hand, trailing Bernie Sanders by $33.7 million cash-on-hand. In year end totals, Biden came in third, behind Pete Buttigieg and far behind Bernie Sanders. His lack of fundraising success is nothing less than stunning for a former two-term Vice President and one of the longest-serving senators in U.S. history. What’s going on when an establishment favorite, hogging the lion’s share of the media attention, with decades of personal connections to the wealthy and powerful, is out-raised by a previously unheard-of college-town mayor with no accomplishments and even fewer prospects of winning the presidency?
This actually surprised me I assumed he would be well connected in the money raising game. I’m not sure I think this matters that much but it does suggest some lack of establishment enthusiasm.
By any measure of participation and excitement for his campaign, Joe Biden is flagging: in volunteers, in turnout for events, in individual donors. While other candidates hold rallies of thousands and tens of thousands, Biden holds rallies in the hundreds or dozens. And if you question the power of massive rallies, just ask yourself: What was the hallmark of the previous two Presidents? Obama captured the imagination of the nation (and even the world) with massive rallies where he deployed his soaring inspirational rhetoric. A signature of Donald Trump’s campaign was the large hate-rally, mocking immigrants, the disabled, women, and political opponents, all allowing Trump to bask in the adoration of crowds of thousands.
Anyone sense excitement for Biden? The argument I hear is mostly he’s a safe experienced decent Dem. How does that play out in the general?
So what is Joe Biden’s message? Besides constantly reminding people that he was “Obama’s sidekick” once, it seems to be the idea that Biden will return us to “Normalcy and Respectability.” … But this message … fails to answer the basic questions of politics: What will you do for me? How will this make my life better? … Trump will mock Biden as a goofy sidekick, a Sancho to Obama’s Don Quixote. And this emasculating attack will work for a simple reason: Americans trust a leading man, not a sidekick.
I know this is an unfair characterization and I looked at his website and he has reasonable sounding plans for every issue and I would be ecstatic if these were all enacted but what will he focus on, what will he run on, what are the 3 most important things he wants to do, what is his vision and how does it help me. The message I get from him is return to status quo. I don’t think that wins.
Perhaps the biggest development in the course of the campaign so far, though, to really call into question whether Joe Biden is a good bet to take on Trump is Ukraine and the Hunter Biden scandal. Despite all the attempts by mainstream media outlets to discount it, the fact remains that Joe Biden’s son Hunter accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars ($50,000 a month!) from a Ukrainian energy firm while his father was personally conducting U.S. foreign policy with that nation as a sitting Vice President. It’s not clear what Hunter really did to earn that $50,000 a month.
Cue Donald Trump employing his best and favorite tactic—pointing out that his opponents are hypocrites who have done the very thing he is accused of —and not being wrong.
I know that nothing illegal happened but it is a form of corruption to be paid for your family connections even if there is nothing explicit and no influence was exerted I think most people view this as wrong and Trump will have a field day with it. If nothing else it helps deflect criticism of his massive and illegal corruption in office.
There have already been reports of Biden “sundowning”; campaign staffers are not scheduling events or interviews after dusk when Biden’s energy level and mental acuity are alleged to take a nosedive. Biden has overall held many fewer campaign events and interviews and press availability than other campaigns.
This is quite concerning. I am a Bernie supporter so I am not that concerned with age (although somewhat for him as well) but people age differently. We know everyone makes gaffs and forgets things but it seems Joe does this a bit more lately and although Trump is a blundering idiot he will mercilessly mock Biden’s miscues and energy and he is great at being a bully. The 40% who don’t care about Trumps own idiocy and bullying will not care, the low info voters will think maybe something is wrong with Biden, Trump is strong but an A-hole.
Now of course I don’t know how it will play out but this mag seemed eerily prescient about a Clinton loss predicted in Feb of 2016 static.currentaffairs.org/....