If you are following the polls on RCP closely, like I have been, you have probably noticed the Trafalgar polls, which are always a few points to the right of everyone else.
I was troubled by this pattern, and didn’t want to dismiss them without some understanding of why they come to a different conclusion.
I found a couple articles that referenced their success in 2016, and their prediction that Trump was headed towards another electoral college victory.
The best explanation I could find was an article in “Just the News”. I know nothing about this source, but they interviewed someone from Trafalgar for their story.
Trafalgar’s polls are different in their ability flush out the secret Trump voter. They call it "social-desirability bias”, which causes some percentage of Trump voters to not admit their intentions. Trafalgar does not account for this by some sort of adjustment, they have instead perfected the skill of getting the real answers out of these people. They do a lot of polling by text, they make their polls short, give them lots of time (Like 24 hrs) to respond, and send them a link to check out their firm so that they know they are legit.
They did this in PA, MI and WI in 2016 and got the results that closely matched the final polls.
If you know a lot of Trump voters, you probably know some that would fit this profile. They are afraid that the liberal elite/machine is keeping track of them and will seek retribution for their preferences. It’s crazy, but if 1 in 10 harbor these fantasies of persecution, it could have an effect. Unfortunately, these fantasies are a major tenet of Trumpism.
I seriously doubt these voter would answer “Biden”, and more likely they are being classified as undecided by other pollsters. It just so happens that HRC lost those key states when all or most of the undecideds went to Trump. Trafalgar knew that they were going to do that, or so they claim.
Will 2020 be the same? If the undecided this year are all Trump voters, who wins? The safe bet is to give Biden every state where he is at or above 50%. Trafalgar, for their part, have Biden winning PA and Wisconsin but losing AZ, FLA, OH and NC. If that all happens it comes down to Michigan, and the winner there takes it. Their last Michigan poll, in September, had Trump ahead by 0.7, and I don’t see things moving in his favor there. There were also 3% undecided in that poll, despite Trafalgar’s secret Trump sauce. Wonder who those people are. Maybe legitimately undecided.
I’m not trying to be a downer, just putting this out there. We need to be prepared for worst case scenario. GOTV Michigan!