Half a million vote-by-mail ballots have already been accepted here in North Carolina, and early in-person voting starts tomorrow (10/15). In the next 16 days, the majority of North Carolina voters will cast their ballots. All of our work has come down to this.
This year — with the help of the DailyKos community — the
Long Leaf Pine Slate has grown to become the biggest independent channel of funding to Democratic challengers based in North Carolina.
We are 100% focused on winning a Democratic majority of the North Carolina state legislature so that we can abolish the hyperpartisan gerrymandering, racist voter suppression and corrupt gutter politics of nine years of Republican misrule.
And our work isn't finished yet. Allow me to introduce the “Final Four” — our last ask in the remaining days of this campaign.
The Final Four
Democrats are right on the verge of winning a majority of the North Carolina State House. But the last couple of seats we need to clinch a majority are an uphill climb. We've done tremendous work for our core Slate - and now, these four candidates need an extra boost to get them over the finish line. If one or more of these win, we’re winning a majority. It’s that simple.
We landed on these four because:
- Each one is tied - either literally or statistically (meaning they're within the polling margin of error) - with their incumbent Republican opponent.
- They are not going to get the same level of resources from the state party that our core Slate candidates have. No one saw these races coming! These are thus comparatively inexpensive campaigns.
- Just a little extra money will keep their messages on the air (TV and/or radio) through 11/3, helping to push them over the edge.
Think I'm exaggerating about every little bit counting? I'm not. In 2018, the state Senate race in New Hanover (Wilmington) was decided
by just 36 votes. This stuff is really close!
All of these candidates are rock-solid Democrats you can feel good about supporting:
- Emily Nicholson - a millennial mom of three, Emily is a former Teach for America teacher and native of Chowan County (smack in the middle of this district). When she returned home after college, she realized how poorly her region had been served by its Republican leadership. Emily has built a come-from-behind campaign that is now right on the verge of victory.
- Virginia Cox-Daugherty - Virginia is an elected local leader in Kinston. In addition to her career as a teacher, principal and community leader, she also holds multiple graduate degrees. She is passionate about education reform and voting rights.
- Judge Al Kirby - Al is a "right out of central casting" type of candidate. An all-star football player in his youth, Al became an attorney and served as a district attorney, founded his own law firm, won two terms as a Sampson County commissioner and was later appointed as a superior court judge. He currently serves as a pastor.
- Sam Edney is a native of the North Carolina mountains and grew up on a family farm. After leaving home at 16 to work full-time, he worked as an industrial engineer before becoming a small businessman. (Check out his excellent introduction video.) He is running in an extremely tough district for any Democrat - but despite that, the sheer quality of his campaign (and Sam as a candidate) has turned this into a winnable seat.
These are four seats that we can win. All four of them could flip, with our help. If we win even one or two of them, that will almost certainly flip control of the state House.
So, how's the rest of the Slate doing?
In a word - very strong.
We've been able to help put the core
Long Leaf Pine Slate candidates in a position now where every one of them is poised to win. Several of our candidates have used our support to build campaigns so strong that they're now polling sufficiently far ahead that we feel comfortable taking them off.
(Remember - our mantra is that we direct our money only where it's going to still have a strong impact.)
In the Senate, Allen Wellons and
Donna Lake remain on the Slate. These two are within the margin of error in uphill districts - a major accomplishment in itself. They still need our help to finish strong. Democrats are favored to win a Senate majority, and both of these seats would be a precious extra margin.
In the House, Republicans were originally favored to hold control - now, it's a Tossup.
Adam Ericson,
Nicole Quick,
Aimy Steele and
Frances Jackson remain on the Slate. These races are painfully, tantalizingly close - up 1 point, down 1 point. We need these to flip to win a majority, which is why we've directed so much of our support their way. (For every
Final Four seat we flip, by the way, we need one less of these!)
What it all comes down to is that Democrats are extremely close to flipping many more seats than Republicans are. Republicans may not win back a single seat this cycle - if they do, it'll likely be just one or two. Again, this is a numbers game. We have to find investable, flippable districts and then embrace them.
That's how we win back power. Join us?
The Long Leaf Pine Slate is dedicated to breaking the Republican majority in the North Carolina General Assembly. Learn more about us at LongLeafPineslate.org and follow us on Twitter at @ForwardCarolina.
You can help support our work here: Donate Now