Hello My Fellow Californians:
I am back from my extended brain-break. Boy did I need it.
Since the last time I wrote, DJT gave COVID-19 to his friends and family, a fly landed on Mike Pence’s head, the virus exploded in much of the country, and California has held its own against the virus.
BY THE NUMBERS
I know, I know, I have a big backlog of info to convey. So skip to the parts that interest you.
A picture is worth a thousand words. So here are some pictures. Good news first.
The state’s new cases have plateaued at around 3000 cases per day over the last week; mortality is trending down, averaging about 58 deaths per day over that period.
Increased case numbers are expected as the state has reopened; so far, the state has avoided the case surge that happened the first time. Good.
Positive test rate is 2.7%. Good.
Where We Are Now and Where We Were 5 Weeks Ago
On September 7, most of the state was deemed too impacted by COVID to re-open. Five weeks later, there are only 10 counties that are still in the “God-awful” Tier 1.
Progress. Of course, these counties have 36% of the state’s population. Because: LA.
The Tier 1 counties on October 15, North to South: Tehama, Glenn, Mendocino, Sonoma, Madera, Monterey, Tulare, San Bernardino, LA, Imperial.
More Potential Trouble Spots
Counties ravaged by the fires have had a hard time of it recently.
Over the past two weeks, here are the counties with the worst new case outbreaks.
While much of the state has new case numbers below 100 per 100k of population, these counties are having a wicked hard time.
Far Northern California
The state of Jefferson has many of the counties with the fewest restrictions. Also the fewest people. The fire-ravaged counties in the middle of the region have been impacted pretty hard by the virus recently.
- Shasta: 407 cases per 100k of population
- Tehema: 217
- Glenn: 136
Bay Area and Sacramento
Sonoma: 206 per 100k of population.
I know, why are all these counties considered “Bay Area” and Sacramento? Because I like the graphic! Thank you abc7news.
San Francisco, Santa Clara, and Alameda are now in the second least-restricted tier. The eastern Sierra counties are also in this tier. Note: Stanislaus graduated this week to the Red Tier.
COVID cases have been declining in the Bay since mid-August. Last week’s 436/day cases in the 9-county Bay Area represent a 6% decline over the previous week. 5 of the 9 Bay Area counties have declining new cases. Good.
Hospitalizations have also trended down, but deaths remain stubbornly high.
Some counties are having small bumps; Sonoma and Napa are having the worst time of it, possibly due to the fires and all the dislocation they caused.
Central California
New Cases per 100k of population in the most impacted counties:
- Madera 145
- Kings 280
- Tulare 162
- Monterey 170
SoCal
- Imperial 236 new cases per 100k of population
- Riverside 146
- San Bernardino 174
- Los Angeles 145
SoCal still has work to do.
projects.sfchronicle.com/…
Conclusion: Some hot spots. The fires worsened things in the North. Overall, cases are holding steady statewide. Whew for now.
TESTING NEWS
Positivity rate is around 2.65% for the last week. Good. Nationally, it’s around 5.
- There is tons of news about the new rapid antigen-based COVID tests; they are being deployed nationwide (in a completely uncoordinated fashion, of course) in dozens of states. The main flaw of these tests is the false negatives they generate — If you test positive, you are probably positive, but if you test negative, maybe not so much. The problem is bad enough that a week ago, Nevada halted their use because of accuracy problems.
These tests are not good at detecting low viral loads. So to use them properly, you have to use them often. And because they are cheap enough to test people frequently, you will ultimately catch the “superspreaders” — the 20% of infected folks who cause 80% of the cases.
Customers traveling on United from SFO to Hawaii will have the option to take a rapid test at the airport or a self-collected, mail-in test ahead of their trip and potentially bypass Hawaii's mandatory 14-day quarantine with a negative result, the airline said.
www.nbcbayarea.com/...
- HERE is a comprehensive look at the available tests as of September 23. Goodrx.com’s Alyssa Billingsly does a monthly (or so) roundup of the latest tests on the market.
MASK WARS
- According to United Airlines, catching COVID on a flight is “extremely unlikely” if everyone wears a mask. The air on a plane is changed every 6 minutes, and 99.99% of the virus goes out with it. The airline ran hundreds of test with coughing mannequins and traced the aerosol flow.
The tests assumed everyone was wearing a surgical-quality mask. I haven’t been flying in a while, but do passengers get a surgical mask, or can they use a grab-bag of whatever they feel like masks?
- No, masks do NOT make you get COVID.
At his train wreck of a public forum last night, DJT claimed that a recent CDC report proved that “85% of people who wear masks” get COVID. Which would mean about 75% of the US population has had COVID. What an idiot.
What the CDC report found was that 70% of a cohort of 154 COVID-positive patients claimed they “always” wore masks. Of course, 74.2% of the 160 patients who tested negative made the same claim. Assuming everyone is telling the truth, which I doubt, the research indicates that masks do help.
More important was the conclusion that contact with a know COVID-positive individual is a serious risk factor — 40% of the COVID patients had contact with such a person right before they got sick.
- In Republican mask news, Chris Christie said he was “wrong” to not wear a mask in the White House. Better late than never, I suppose, for one of DJT’s most prominent enablers.
IN THE NEWS
- What’s with the Dodgers?? Are they a “Wait until Next Year” bunch, like my beloved Bums of old? And yes, I was a Brooklyn Dodger fan until they deserted us and moved to California.
BTW, “Wait until Next Year” is the title of a wonderful book written by fellow Brooklyn Dodger fan Doris Kearns Goodwin. Learning how to keep score so she could tell her dad about the game inspired her to become an historian.
- COVID has caused the gap between rich and poor in Silicon Valley to explode. High food prices and rising unemployment — as high as 20-30% among service workers — is making the problem worse. A study released by Second Harvest of Silicon Valley indicates that 11% of adults and 9% of children in the Valley often don’t have enough to eat.
- California has added a“equity” metric to the mix of numbers that counties have to meet in order to graduate to the next tier. The Chronicle explains how it works:
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To meet the state’s equity metric, the test positivity rate in counties’ most disadvantaged communities must meet the test positivity threshold for the less restrictive tier. For example, disadvantaged neighborhoods in counties looking to enter the orange tier must have test positivity rates within 5% of the orange tier threshold, or less than 5.2%.
It’s a good idea. A necessary idea. But it has added yet another complicating layer to the counties’ struggle to open businesses. The state should figure out a way that making progress towards this goal can suffice to let the counties open.
AND FINALLY…. From the Ridiculous to the Sublime
I spent too much time for a minute over the last few weeks surfing the web to get some anti-covid strengthening that was not bleach.
Here are two of the videos I found that are SO worth watching, if you have not seen them before: From the hilarious Lincoln Project rendition of “Evita” to the shy choir of schoolgirls from Wales who bring my Italian soul to tears every time I listen to them sing.
“COVITA”
— Rousingly sung (to the tune of “EVITA”)
by Broadway Star Lisa Howard
And..
THE ANGELICUS CHOIR FROM SOUTH WALES SINGING TURANDOT’S “NESSUN DORMA” WILL HEAL YOUR SOUL.
PS: The last phrases of the aria, “Vincero” means, in order to inspire us more: “I will win.”
Stay safe, write letters, make calls, we are 18 days away from liberation from being governed by someone’s crazy uncle.