News is continuing to come in about the Democratic moneybomb in the wake of Justice Ginsburg’s passing. We’ve heard about the eyepopping fundraising totals from individual Senate candidates like Jaime Harrison ($57 million!) as well as from Joe Biden’s presidential campaign ($383 million!). But what can we say about the broader picture?
Now that we’re past the Federal Election Committee’s October 15 deadline for filing campaign finance disclosures, we can now look at the data from a bird’s eye view. There’s a lot to like for Dems and their sympathizers (I’m one of them), but there are also clear warnings about taking it easy from here onwards!
The State of the Battlefield
Senate Dems in battleground states had a mammoth fundraising quarter, raising a total of $362 million. This is a 2.7:1 advantage over their Republican foes, who raised a total of $134 million. Please note that these amounts exclude amounts raised by the national committees, the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) and the RNSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee), as well as amounts raised by PACs.
I’ve listed down the individual amounts below. There’s a lot to take in, so let me summarize the Senate Dems’ fundraising advantage as follows.
- In Lean D races (AZ-SEN, CO-SEN, MI-SEN), the Democratic fundraising advantage on average was 1.96:1
- In Tossup races (IA-SEN, ME-SEN, NC-SEN), the Democratic fundraising advantage on average was 4.70:1
- In Lean R races (AK-SEN, GA-SEN-A, GA-SEN-B, KS-SEN, MT-SEN, SC-SEN), the Democratic fundraising advantage on average was 4:30:1
- In Likely R races (AL-SEN, TX-SEN), the Democratic fundraising advantage on average was 2.81:1
- In Safe R races (KY-SEN, LA-SEN, MS-SEN), the Democratic fundraising advantage on average was 2.76:1
Given these numbers, it shouldn’t be surprising that Dem Senate candidates in places like Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina and Texas are in competitive races. Nor should we be surprised that Doug Jones, Mike Espy and Amy McGrath are waging a lively fight.
3q 2020 Fundraising, Senate Dems vs Reps
State |
dEM cANDIDATE |
rEP cANDIDATE |
DK Elections Rating |
Dem 3Q Fundraising |
rep 3q fundraising |
AK |
Al Gross |
Dan Sullivan |
Lean R |
$8,465,641.13 |
$1,318,475.24 |
AL |
Doug Jones |
Tommy Tuberville |
Likely R |
$9,910,767.40 |
$3,319,589.75 |
AZ |
Mark Kelly |
Martha McSally |
Lean D |
$35,489,387.45 |
$19,411,370.82 |
CO |
John Hickenlooper |
Cory Gardner |
Lean D |
$20,710,222.83 |
$6,883,526.70 |
GA-A |
Jon Ossoff |
David Perdue |
Lean R |
$20,486,503.08 |
$4,906,047.02 |
GA-B |
Raphael Warnock |
Kelly Loeffler* |
Lean R |
$12,286,071.51 |
$1,991,791.64 |
IA |
Theresa Greenfield |
Joni Ernst |
Tossup |
$27,670,568.57 |
$6,570,574.10 |
KS |
Barbara Bollier |
Roger Marshall |
Lean R |
$12,362,543.97 |
$2,637,986.98 |
KY |
Amy McGrath |
Mitch McConnell |
Safe R |
$35,284,084.08 |
$14,694,991.04 |
LA |
Adrian Perkins |
Bill Cassidy |
Safe R |
$1,297,289.95 |
$1,346,606.07 |
ME |
Sara Gideon |
Susan Collins |
Tossup |
$38,297,315.57 |
$7,359,002.79 |
MI |
Gary Peters |
John James |
Lean D |
$13,446,153.24 |
$13,032,492.29 |
MS |
Mike Espy |
Cindy Hyde-Smith |
Safe R |
$3,999,093.81 |
$814,703.89 |
MT |
Steve Bullock |
Steve Daines |
Lean R |
$24,967,996.86 |
$10,876,803.72 |
NC |
Cal Cunningham |
Thom Tillis |
Tossup |
$26,887,306.73 |
$5,729,280.80 |
SC |
Jaime Harrison |
Lindsey Graham |
Lean R |
$56,815,387.18 |
$27,524,905.54 |
TX |
MJ Hegar |
John Cornyn |
Likely R |
$13,650,440.94 |
$5,191,868.54 |
Total |
|
|
|
$362,026,774.30 |
$133,610,016.93 |
*I’ve excluded Doug Collins from this table.
Note that these amounts are slightly different from the headlines in Twitter and Politico. This is because I’ve excluded refunds from the gross totals.
Gearing Up for the Final Battle
As eyepopping as some of these numbers are, it’s important to remember that campaigns are raising and spending these amounts in real time. The fundraising totals this 3Q 2020 include amounts which candidates have already spent. As we head into the final weeks of the election, we also need to consider Senate Dems’ Cash-on-Hand (CoH). It’s an indication of how quickly can campaigns react to and counter the real-time moves of their opponents.
I’ve listed down the individual amounts below. There’s a lot to take in, so let me summarize the Senate Dems’ fundraising advantage as follows.
- In Lean D races (AZ-SEN, CO-SEN, MI-SEN), the Democratic CoH advantage on average is almost nil (the ratio is 1:1)
- In Tossup races (IA-SEN, ME-SEN, NC-SEN), the Democratic CoH advantage on average is 2.10:1
- In Lean R races (AK-SEN, GA-SEN-A, GA-SEN-B, KS-SEN, MT-SEN, SC-SEN), the Democratic CoH advantage on average is 1.62:1
- In Likely R races (AL-SEN, TX-SEN), the Democratic CoH advantage on average is 2.81:1
- In Safe R races (KY-SEN, LA-SEN, MS-SEN), the Democratic CoH advantage on average is 1.24:1
Cash on hand by 3Q 2020 end, Senate Dems vs Reps
State |
dEM cANDIDATE |
rEP cANDIDATE |
DK Elections Rating |
dem 3Q coh |
rep 3Q coh |
ratio |
AK |
Al Gross |
Dan Sullivan |
Lean R |
$5,171,526.27 |
$2,590,326.92 |
2.00 |
AL |
Doug Jones |
Tommy Tuberville |
Likely R |
$7,909,639.98 |
$1,732,177.67 |
4.57 |
AZ |
Mark Kelly |
Martha McSally |
Lean D |
$18,818,057.62 |
$12,157,314.39 |
1.55 |
CO |
John Hickenlooper |
Cory Gardner |
Lean D |
$7,176,801.10 |
$6,796,660.72 |
1.06 |
GA-A |
Jon Ossoff |
David Perdue |
Lean R |
$8,327,392.76 |
$8,181,362.15 |
1.02 |
GA-B |
Raphael Warnock |
Kelly Loeffler* |
Lean R |
$6,475,337.18 |
$5,568,306.00 |
1.16 |
IA |
Theresa Greenfield |
Joni Ernst |
Tossup |
$9,459,297.14 |
$4,301,277.70 |
2.20 |
KS |
Barbara Bollier |
Roger Marshall |
Lean R |
$7,558,952.04 |
$1,715,291.43 |
4.41 |
KY |
Amy McGrath |
Mitch McConnell |
Safe R |
$19,954,787.07 |
$13,945,681.18 |
1.43 |
LA |
Adrian Perkins |
Bill Cassidy |
Safe R |
$681,133.26 |
$4,573,552.38 |
0.15 |
ME |
Sara Gideon |
Susan Collins |
Tossup |
$22,732,633.39 |
$6,568,316.69 |
3.46 |
MI |
Gary Peters |
John James |
Lean D |
$3,498,806.81 |
$8,756,858.61 |
0.40 |
MS |
Mike Espy |
Cindy Hyde-Smith |
Safe R |
$3,171,111.43 |
$1,473,769.75 |
2.15 |
MT |
Steve Bullock |
Steve Daines |
Lean R |
$1,977,159.67 |
$3,471,176.02 |
0.57 |
NC |
Cal Cunningham |
Thom Tillis |
Tossup |
$4,238,657.51 |
$6,638,145.57 |
0.64 |
SC |
Jaime Harrison |
Lindsey Graham |
Lean R |
$7,975,545.73 |
$14,759,103.20 |
0.54 |
TX |
MJ Hegar |
John Cornyn |
Likely R |
$8,505,926.01 |
$8,040,542.51 |
1.06 |
Total |
|
|
|
$143,632,764.97 |
$111,269,862.89 |
1.29 |
*I’ve excluded Doug Collins from this table.
Personally, these were my takeaways from this data.
- A big chunk of the eyepopping totals in MT-SEN, NC-SEN and SC-SEN was already spent during the quarter. Our candidates in those races actually have a lower CoH than the Republicans.
- That said, we have to keep in mind that campaigns can make ad reservations in advance.
- Susan Collins should be very concerned.
- A lot of Republicans fasted for McSally.
- Apart from the ACB hearings, there’s another reason why Lindsey isn’t pathetically begging for money on Fox News recently.
- Gary Peters in MI-SEN has less than half of James’ CoH. This is another warning sign for the Peters campaign.
- Barbara Bollier and Doug Jones can bombard their Republican opponents.
- Speaking of Jones, he can outspend Tuberville by a bigger ratio than he did to Roy Moore! (The spending ratio in the 2017 special was about 4:1.)
In conclusion, let me end by quoting from DKE’s Twitter.
Good luck, Senate Dems! And more power to the grassroots donors who made this tsunami of cash possible!