These statistics show more Americans are dying as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic than the official death count shows.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020
As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States*; however, this number might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality. Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (1–6).† Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26–October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015–2019 and the percentage change in 2020. Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.
Estimates of excess deaths can provide a comprehensive account of mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributable to COVID-19. Estimates of the numbers of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 might be limited by factors such as the availability and use of diagnostic testing (including postmortem testing) and the accurate and complete reporting of cause of death information on the death certificate. Excess death analyses are not subject to these limitations because they examine historical trends in all-cause mortality to determine the degree to which observed numbers of deaths differ from historical norms. In April 2020, CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) began publishing data on excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (7,8). This report describes trends and demographic patterns in the number of excess deaths occurring in the United States from January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, and differences by age and race/ethnicity using provisional mortality data from the NVSS.§
Excess deaths are typically defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. A detailed description of the methodology for estimating excess deaths has been described previously (7). Briefly, expected numbers of deaths are estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns. The average expected number, as well as the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval (the range of values likely to contain the value of a single new observation), are used as thresholds to determine the number of excess deaths (i.e., observed numbers above each threshold) and percentage excess (excess deaths divided by average expected number of deaths). Estimates described here refer to the number or percentage above the average; estimates above the upper bound threshold have been published elsewhere (7). Observed numbers of deaths are weighted to account for incomplete reporting by jurisdictions (50 states and the District of Columbia [DC]) in the most recent weeks, where the weights were estimated based on completeness of provisional data in the past year (7).
Although more excess deaths have occurred among older age groups, relative to past years, adults aged 25–44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020. The age distribution of COVID-19 deaths shifted toward younger age groups from May through August (9); however, these disproportionate increases might also be related to underlying trends in other causes of death. Future analyses might shed light on the extent to which increases among younger age groups are driven by COVID-19 or by other causes of death. Among racial and ethnic groups, the smallest average percentage increase in numbers of deaths compared with previous years occurred among White persons (11.9%) and the largest for Hispanic persons (53.6%), with intermediate increases (28.9%–36.6%) among AI/AN, Black, and Asian persons. These disproportionate increases among certain racial and ethnic groups are consistent with noted disparities in COVID-19 mortality.***
BY JESSIE HELLMANN
Deaths of people in the 25-44 age group was 25.6 percent higher than expected when compared to similar time periods in previous years, the highest increase for any age group, according to a report published Tuesday. Along racial and ethnic lines, Hispanic or Latino people saw the highest percentage increase in numbers of deaths compared with previous years at 54 percent.
It’s even worse than we thought. And much worse for the most affected groups.