There has been much discussion regarding the path forward for Democrats in the event they do manage to seize a Senate majority on Nov. 3. One of the more far-reaching and dramatic actions being contemplated by Senate Democrats is the elimination of the legislative filibuster. Predictably, Republicans have reacted to this proposal with hyperventilating expressions of dismay and horror; Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell himself has issued dark and dire warnings should the Democrats decide to take this step, promising that if and when Republicans retake the majority, they would exact revenge. So-called centrist Democrats and commentators have chimed in, seemingly aghast that the Democrats could contemplate such a break with Senate “tradition.”
But the actions of McConnell and Donald Trump have inadvertently created a perfect justification for getting rid of the filibuster, one that most Americans will wholeheartedly support: to provide relief to Americans and an American economy devastated by this pandemic.
As the election looms, it now seems almost certain that, thanks to Donald Trump and his Republican enablers in the U.S. Senate, millions of Americans will be forced to endure in the coming winter not only a vicious resurgence of COVID-19 infections, but a complete absence of cash relief to offset the economic pain from this unrelenting pandemic. That means no relief for the unemployed, no relief for shuttered businesses, no relief for the nation’s schools struggling to educate children, and no relief to the states with budgets that have been decimated by an economy still trapped in a state of forced hibernation. Even as much of the country looks ahead to Nov. 3 to rid itself of an incompetent and unbalanced president, the coming months promise to be as unpleasant a time as many Americans have experienced in their entire lives.
It didn’t have to be this way. The Democratically controlled House passed legislation in May providing over $3 trillion dollars in such aid. Passage of that House bill by just three GOP senators (on top of the 45 Democrats and two independents who would vote for it), at any time over the last five months, would have virtually assured that relief would now be on its way to Americans. After all, Donald Trump would probably sign anything at this point to try and boost his dwindling political fortunes. But McConnell has refused to even bring it up for a vote.
Now the situation has deteriorated to the point where a vote to pass further COVID-19 relief today would have no effect until January at the earliest, even if McConnell allowed it, which he has loudly indicated he will not. For reasons relating to his own political future, McConnell has made clear that despite the constant media chatter about a potential agreement (chatter that is being stoked by the White House itself to prop up the financial markets and reelection chances), nothing benefiting Americans is going to happen as long as the Kentucky senator controls the GOP majority. And he will have that control throughout November and December, regardless of the results of the election.
So, in less than two weeks, the country will vote. But even if, as appears increasingly likely, Democrats capture a Senate majority, even after a new Senate is sworn in on Jan. 3 (and hopefully, a new president on Jan. 20), the passage of such relief still faces a huge obstacle: a Republican filibuster, which, under current Senate rules (specifically Senate Rule 22, the “cloture rule”), effectively permits an opposing party in the minority the ability to endlessly block a vote on legislation that does not meet that threshold of 60 votes.
Assuming that Democrats do secure a majority, as things stand, now they can only reasonably expect that majority to be quite small—perhaps even one vote, or even a 50-50 tie that would require the involvement of the vice president as tiebreaker. (In that circumstance, the vice president would, of course, be Kamala Harris.) So to reach that magical threshold of 60 votes needed to overcome certain filibuster by the GOP, Democrats would need to somehow convince possibly as many as 10 Republican senators to break ranks and support an aid package.
But that isn’t likely to happen. And the reason, ironically, is because of Donald Trump.
Because the Republican Party has allowed itself to be so thoroughly dominated by Trump, because its members now are so dependent on the rabid cruelty, racism, and xenophobia of “Trumpism,” their constituents in the red states that elected them are now bred and predisposed to reject any compromise with Democrats as “traitorous” behavior. In fact, one of the major reasons McConnell is opposing such relief is because conservative, right-wing media have turned such aid into a litmus test of conservative bona fides. As a result, for the red meat consumers of right-wing media who now make up the Republican “base,” any compromise with Democrats—even one that so clearly benefits the American people, like COVID-19 relief—will automatically be grounds for those “turncoat” Republicans to be primaried in their next election.
As pointed out by Thomas Edsall writing for The New York Times, one of the consequences of this election is likely to be the final winnowing of the Republican Party of any so-called “moderates.” Farewell to any Republican who could ever be expected to vote with Democrats for any reason, least of all to overcome a potential Republican filibuster. Edsall quotes Sarah Binder of the Brookings Institute, who is also a political science professor at George Washington University. She explains the reality most likely to be experienced by Democrats if they retake a Senate majority.
With two exceptions, if Democrats win just a small Senate majority, that won’t be sufficient to secure major Biden/Democratic policy gains. First, the new Republican minority will likely move to the right — presumably losing Collins, Gardner, Alexander, McSally. The more conservative the G.O.P., the harder it will be to construct deals to secure the necessary 60 votes to block filibusters. And any sense of Democrats’ vulnerability in 2022 will discourage the Senate G.O.P. from cooperating with Democrats.
So if anyone thinks that the parties are polarized now, just wait until the purge of this tiny sliver of so-called “moderate” Republicans occurs as a likely result of the November 2020 election. At that point the only Republican senators likely to even consider voting for a Democratic relief bill in January will be Mitt Romney of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. That won’t be enough to overcome an all-but-certain Republican filibuster of relief aid to Americans. The remainder of the Republican caucus simply will not budge out of fear of being primaried by someone more acceptable to their fanatical base. The problem for the Republicans is that they won’t be able to sell that excuse to an American public suffering through what is likely to be the worst winter of their lifetimes. As a result, Democrats will not only have the public on their side in eliminating the filibuster, they’ll likely have the public’s loud and vocal encouragement.
The Republican Party willingly allowed themselves to be refashioned in the mold of Donald Trump. Now they’re going to have to face the consequences of that decision.
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