To Win You Need Only Capitalize On One Opportunity; To Avoid Losing You Need To Avoid All Threats
I just received the latest Foreign Affairs magazine in the mail. I have yet to read it though found its cover interesting. It certainly has fired the neurons as it feels like it will touch topics I’ve just discussed. The cover seems to suggest that we should be looking for what disaster will strike next after the pandemic. In this it seems to miss that we’re still dealing with the pandemic and it’s effects to include food insecurity while also dealing with acute environmental disasters like hurricanes, wildfire, flood, derecho all amplified and accelerated by global warming. It fails to see already active issues like the return of nationalism and fascism throughout the world. It misses domestic suppression of democracy and ongoing kleptocracy. It’s not what next, we already have issues that we’re not handling. These issues will propagate effects well into the future.
The issue cover art also raises the false notion that we should be trying to predict. That is flat wrong. We shouldn’t be trying to consider what will happen. We need to think what can happen. Then we try to prevent, mitigate, and shape.
The cover art shows a lone person standing and looking out. A threat rapidly approaches to gobsmack him from behind. This too shows an error in thinking. Consider for a moment both predator and prey animals. How are the eyes set for each? Most predators are forward looking and more easily see downrange. Prey tend to have eyes side set while being able to see more broadly in simultaneous panorama. There’s reason evolution has driven such adaptations. A predator can spot opportunity downrange then formulate an attack well before action can be taken to prevent the attempt to attack. A predator only needs to succeed once to eat. Prey, on the other hand, needs to survive all attacks. Prey needs to see widely for better chance to detect any attack. There’s an asymmetry in this. Sure. It provide us lessons. Note that any instrument providing zoom or magnification also limits breadth of viewing.
- To operate best, we should have at least two observers. One can look broadly to gain safety and protect while the other looks downrange for targets and opportunity. Humans are both predator and prey.
- While seeking profit, you only need to capitalize on one success. You can look downrange. While avoiding losses and risk, you must look broadly. Mitigating one impactful event isn’t good enough. You must try to consider the entire set. You’ll never succeed at this effort though trying provides you the best possible understanding. If any threat succeeds, you lose.
There’s reason safety and operations are two distinct departments. There’s reason risk assessment is separate from business development. If you don’t account for both, you either won’t eat or you’ll get hit. It is possible to both starve and get hit. Chances are when you get hit, if you survive, your current attempts at eating will have been disrupted. Look broad, consider risk, then look for profit.