Allan Lichtman predicted in August that Trump will lose and he has been right and has correctly called every presidential race since 1984. In 2016, when everybody was predicting a Clinton win, one model – that of American University professor Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys – correctly anticipated a Trump win.
Today he reiterated that Trump will lose.
He also said that he has two worries or rather two warnings:
(1) Voter Suppression: the Republican base is old white guys like him and because they don’t live to 150, it is the young and diverse vote that will decide the election. So he is warning about voter suppression by the GOP.
(2) Russian intervention. They are back. They learned a lot in 2016. They may even try to get into our voting technology and registration roles. And once again Donald Trump is exploiting and welcoming Russian intervention.
news.yahoo.com/…
He did not say but I say it because I have asked people here in DK: What can we do to fight voter suppression and Russian interference?
Answer: Biden has to be ahead of Trump by a large margin, +10 or more in the national polls. That’s how you beat cheaters when you are the good guy.
And my worry is, because these polls only count voters who have not voted but 50% of Americans have already voted and many more Trump supporters are expected to vote on election date Nov 3rd (see www.politico.com/...), that the polls will tighten, not because Biden is down, but because they will count more Trumpsters who have not voted yet.
This in turn will give Trump an excuse to say he won even if he did not. And we don’t want that.
It seems we are powerless against (1) voter suppression and (2) Russian Intervention. But is there something we can do about the polls? Like ask 538 to ask pollsters to include answers from people who already voted?