Well, that’s the lede today: Harris County officially passed ONE MILLION VOTES CAST as of last night. Statewide? We hit 6.86 million. That means we’re on track to pass seven million early votes this weekend, with another full week of early voting to go.
So much for my ‘7 to 8 million early votes’ estimate! I was nowhere near.
What do we know? That 39% of those who’ve voted early, have never voted in a TX primary. That we’re seeing estimates of anywhere from 11 million to ‘over 12 million’ total votes cast in Texas. I’ve seen estimates that new voters make up something like 12-13% of all votes so far (twice the usual amount), and the same with voters under 30 — but I can’t find the articles to link.
What we know is that Cornyn didn’t model for above about 10.5M voters.
…
GOTV!
Day 10 Early Vote
County |
19 Oct |
20 Oct |
21 Oct |
22 Oct |
23 oct |
Total |
%EV |
2016 EV |
2018 EV |
Harris |
91,132 |
81,967 |
72,488 |
54,822 |
69,819 |
1,023,526 |
41.26 |
977k |
767k |
dallas |
47,328 |
44,877 |
40,531 |
35,892 |
34,644 |
563,148 |
40.27 |
549k |
494k |
tarrant |
48,657 |
43,929 |
40,068 |
36,408 |
38,678 |
480,663 |
39.64 |
515k |
434k |
bexar |
41,283 |
39,791 |
37,388 |
34,638 |
35,184 |
467,025 |
39.27 |
471k |
380k |
travis |
36,455 |
35,230 |
31,924 |
26,758 |
26,706 |
397,333 |
46.49 |
377k |
349k |
collin |
28,468 |
26,109 |
22,385 |
19,237 |
20,435 |
333,514 |
51.42 |
302k |
271k |
denton |
24,975 |
22,072 |
18,695 |
16,339 |
17,265 |
283,246 |
50.12 |
240k |
218k |
hidalgo |
10,666 |
8,975 |
7,712 |
6,539 |
8,017 |
130,893 |
33.45 |
140k |
108k |
el paso |
12,984 |
11,936 |
10,856 |
8,802 |
10,902 |
158,484* |
32.4* |
150k |
130k |
ft bend |
26,077 |
22,715 |
21,201 |
17,186 |
18,871 |
225,159 |
46.68 |
214k |
187k |
Montgomery |
19,385 |
18,277 |
17,471 |
14,182 |
14,416 |
161,175 |
43.55 |
157k |
125k |
Williamson |
16,787 |
15,025 |
13,727 |
10,831 |
11,738 |
191,931 |
50.95 |
163k |
153k |
Cameron |
4,889 |
4,210 |
3,573 |
3,117 |
3,871 |
68,509 |
31.3 |
64k |
51k |
brazoria |
10,061 |
7,586 |
6,742 |
5,643 |
6,712 |
104,502 |
46.6 |
83k |
83k |
bell |
6,139 |
5,728 |
5,609 |
4,938 |
5,087 |
64,214 |
29.17 |
67k |
54k |
nueces |
5,627 |
4,896 |
4,325 |
3,856 |
4,620 |
80,326 |
37.95 |
74k |
61k |
total |
396,441 |
393,593 |
354,675 |
299,188 |
326,965 |
4.73M |
|
4.5M |
3.75M |
*El Paso County’s numbers weren’t updated yet on the TX SoS site. These are straight from El Paso County directly for today, and then added to the previous ‘all early votes’ total on the SoS page.
Texas now has a TOTAL REGISTERED VOTER participation rate over 40%. Forty percent of all Texas voters have cast their votes, and out of that? Almost 70% of all votes have been in the largest 16 counties.
This is huge. And every one of these votes has already been counted.
Whatever I had expected, it wasn’t this. 1.8 million new voters since 2016 is HUGE, and our voting percentages are showing it. This is going to be a big night Nov 3, I’m convinced of it.
Want to help? We’re showing lower participation rates in Bexar County (San Antonio), and we’re seeing the historically lower rates along the Rio Grande. I’d suggest reaching out to the County-level party and seeing if there’s anything you can do to support the GOTV effort, between all of next week and then election day itself.
Go BIG, Texas!
EDIT: Adding in a volunteer link from NoMandates, for those who want to help GOTV! events.poweredxpeople.org