Mississippi is an interesting state, in all the wrong ways. The last time the state was exit polled, during the 2008 presidential election, only 11% of white voters voted for President Barack Obama, his second lowest percentage in the nation. (Only Alabama was worse, at 10%.)
Of course, Democrats do poorly in general, seen as the party of Black people. John Kerry in 2004 only managed 18% of the white vote. Still, the state’s toplines aren’t that lopsided. Obama only lost the state by 11 and 12 points.
President |
2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
REP candidate |
59 |
56 |
55 |
58 |
Dem candidate |
40 |
43 |
44 |
40 |
This isn’t the year Democrats make the state competitive. It’s still way too racist. But we wanted to know, is the under-the-radar Senate race competitive?
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Civiqs polled 507 likely voters in Mississippi October 23-26, with a MoE of 5%.
President |
10/26 |
Donald Trump (R-inc) |
55 |
Joe Biden (D) |
41 |
Democratic performance has moved roughly 8-10 points in the Democrats’ direction nationally, but apparently Mississippi is an exception. Biden is only getting 18% among white voters, continuing the party’s difficulties with the deplorable crowd.
The results look like 2016, which makes any Senate race a real tough slog.
Senate |
10/26 |
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Inc) |
52 |
Mike Espy (D) |
44 |
Other/unsure |
3 |
In 2018, these same two candidates faced off, and Hyde-Smith won 54-46. It was a solid Democratic year, so people were skeptical that he could manage to keep it that close in a presidential year, with the racist Trump vote all goosed up and motivated to vote. Still, that was the first time since 1978 that Democrats had done better than a 14-point loss.
Well, the margin is an identical eight points, despite Trump’s 14-point lead at the top of the ticket. The difference is independent voters, which Espy is winning 52-39, better than Biden’s 47-43 lead.
There isn’t much early vote in the state (only around 60,000 votes in a state that will likely turn out around 1.1 million voters). Still, Black voter registration has been up. You might remember this asshole:
"I'm concerned about voter registration in Mississippi," Gail Welch, an elections commissioner in Jones County, Mississippi wrote. "The blacks are having lots [of] events for voter registration. People in Mississippi have to get involved, too."
And overall, no state is more efficient at suppressing the vote than Mississippi.
Today, voters in Mississippi face a series of government-created barriers that make it, according to a study in the Election Law Journal in 2018, far and away the most difficult state in which to vote.
Mississippi has broad restrictions on absentee voting, no early voting or online registration, absentee ballots that must be witnessed by notaries and voter ID laws that overwhelmingly affect the poor and minorities, since they are less likely to have state-approved identification. The restrictions have grown even tighter since a 2013 Supreme Court decision blocked many voting rights protections.
A nationwide voting-rights bill could have a huge impact in this state, enfranchising the 16% of the Black population prohibiting former felons from voting. It could remove barriers to absentee and mail voting. It could remove the very restrictions that have ensured that Mississippi hasn’t had a single statewide Black elected official in 132 years, despite having the largest Black population in the country (37.8%).
But it is that solid base that could, enfranchised and with minimal white support, turn Mississippi purple. The state’s racist Republicans will fight tooth and nail to prevent that from happening. It is our own moral imperative to take up this fight.