Election week usually brings stories of potential icy weather across the Great Plains, or a possible snow storm in the upper Midwest. There are still chances that those things will come along in the next few days, but six days before Election 2020, a hurricane is about to come ashore in Louisiana. Again.
Hurricane Zeta represents the (hopefully) last of 27 named storms in a season that has brought 11 hurricanes, four of which were major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The Gulf Coast, and particularly Louisiana, has come in for an unmatched battering. The Bayou State kept on collecting damage from storms and hurricanes right on through the alphabet (and beyond) with Cristobal, Laura, Marco, Beta, and Delta all making landfall there. Out of that list, Hurricane Laura was one of the most powerful storms to strike the state since records began. The powerful Category 4 storm plowed into the state packing 150 mph winds and a powerful surge that left 77 known people dead and did at least $14 billion in damage. The only season worse for Louisiana was the record-setting 2005 season. That year also had 27 named storms. One of them was named Katrina.
That the two most active hurricane seasons on record have both come within the last 15 years is definitely a result of climate change. So are the record fires still burning in the West. Meanwhile, far to the north, it’s something that isn’t happening that’s generating enormous concern.
2020 is not an El Niño year. Without that ocean current driving weather across half the planet, it was also not expected to be a particularly warm year. Which makes the fact that 2020 is on track to break all records even more disturbing.
NASA also reports that 2020 saw record levels of carbon dioxide. And record levels of methane. And record levels of nitrous oxide. And that’s despite the decrease in industry and transportation following the outbreak of the coronavirus. Of course, the fact that record areas of the American West went up in smoke—following a winter in which much the same thing happened in Australia—didn’t exactly help.
But as all eyes are focused on Hurricane Zeta coming ashore on Wednesday afternoon, a much quieter event at the top of the globe that may be the real indicator of just how much things have changed. That’s because, way up in the high Arctic, the ice pack … isn’t.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center has been tracking the extent of Arctic sea ice for decades. The trend of that data leaves absolutely no doubt about the warming world.
Not only has there been a steady decline, but sharp drops in 2007 and 2012 indicate that the system is becoming precarious. As more ice melts, the sun’s heat is absorbed by open water rather than reflected back into space. That heat results in more melting ice, and more heat, and … the result is an average extend of sea ice that has fallen over 40% in as many years. That represents 32,300 square miles of ice lost every year—an area larger than the state of Maine.
Initially, 2020 looked to be tracking second to the record low sea ice in 2012, but as fall began, something … different happened. The seasonal sea ice that usually forms quickly all around the Arctic simply did not come. In particular, a ridge of warm air over Siberia kept the entire northern boundary of Russia essentially ice-free. In early October, the level of ice in 2020 fell below the past record low. Since then the gap just keeps getting wider.
With the end of fall looming, the rate of ice formation remains much lower than in past years. The ice at the top of the world in late October 2020 is over 1 million square kilometers less than the previous record low. It’s over 3 million square kilometers lower than the average over the last 40 years. Unless there is a drastic change in the next few weeks, 2020 will take over as the new record low, and it may be the beginning of a death spiral that sees the end of any sort of unified, extensive sea ice in the north.
Since this is sea ice, it’s melting won’t directly cause ocean levels to be higher. However, the warming oceans will rise, in part because the warmer water will expand, and in part because the melting of the sea ice will make it much easier for Greenland to shed massive amounts of ice and snow now held on land. If the area actually remains essentially ice-free, it may also have extensive effects on both ocean currents and weather patterns. The melting ice has already fueled the destabilization of the polar vortex. That, in turn, has generated more erratic and severe weather across the northern hemisphere.
There’s probably not a direct connection between the sharp decline in Arctic ice and the fact that Louisiana is about to hit by a hurricane at the end of October. But there’s a common cause. That cause is the human-driven climate crisis.
At 10 AM Central Time, Hurricane Zeta was moving north at 18 mph with sustained winds of 90 mph. The storm is continuing to strengthen, and is expected to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. A storm surge greater than 6 feet may occur near the mouth of the Pearl River.
In New Orleans, a turbine that dates back to 1915—and which still supplies power to drainage pumps across much of the low-lying city—has gone out of service. Officials are insisting that sufficient power is available to keep the city from flooding.
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