The most eye-popping poll out Wednesday morning was an ABC News/Washington Post survey of Wisconsin showing Joe Biden besting Donald Trump with likely voters by 17 points, 57-40%. Just a month ago, the same poll gave Biden a far more modest lead in the Badger State of just six points.
Outlier? Probably. It's a dramatic shift to be sure. But what is happening right now in Wisconsin terms of the uptick in the coronavirus case count is equally as dramatic, as the following New York Times graphic shows.
That deep red surge in infections is hitting the entire state and, as I wrote yesterday, turning 2016 Trump voters in blue-collar strongholds back to Biden. The ABC/Post poll also found Trump's job disapprovals in the state have soared, with 58% now disapproving of his performance compared to 41% who do—numbers that very much correspond to the horse race.
Trump's notable spike in disapproval is surely being made worse by his superspreader campaign stops, like the one he made Tuesday in West Salem, Wisconsin. Hours before the event, the state's Department of Health Services reported 5,262 new infections that day—an all-time high for a single day of new cases since the start of the pandemic. Nonetheless, Trump rolled out his usual complaints about the dominance of coronavirus coverage due to the fact that people are, well, dying. By the thousands.
"You turn on the news: 'COVID, COVID.' You know when they’re going to stop talking about it so much? November 4th," Trump said, according to Wisconsin Public Radio.
Whatever is happening in Wisconsin clearly isn't good for Trump. The truth likely falls a tad short of a 17-point advantage for Biden, but the race is anything but tightening there—and that's what Trump needs. Another high-quality Wisconsin poll is due out later Wednesday from Marquette Law School.
The ABC/Post poll of Michigan was far more modest, giving Biden a seven-point lead there, 51-44%. Biden's lead in the Times aggregate has fallen slightly of late to eight points. The poll also found Democratic Sen. Gary Peters leading his GOP challenger John James by six points among likely voters, 52-46%. We will get another look at Michigan later in the day with a new Times/Siena poll.
The biggest difference between the two states according to the ABC/Post polling is with male voters. While the two candidates are running roughly even with men in Wisconsin, Biden is trailing Trump among Michigan men by double digits.
There’s one more thing to keep in mind: Whether Trump and Republicans prevail in both states will come down to how many votes they bank on Election Day. Here's the Post:
Trump leads among likely voters who plan to vote on Election Day, with 65 percent support in Michigan and 70 percent in Wisconsin. Among voters who have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day, over 7 in 10 in both Michigan and Wisconsin support Biden.
If you're Trump, it's a particularly bad week for COVID-19 infection rates to be sky high.
