As we get closer to the election folks are getting nervous, often about small things. Yes, we all need to vote and no, right-wing military groups aren’t going to take over. There just aren’t that many of them. The prediction is that there are 20,000 to 60,000 individual members. Yes, they can kill some folks, but they just can’t do that much damage. We shouldn’t conclude that they couldn’t hurt people, they can, but the compared to COVID, they aren’t much of a threat. If they roll into the streets you are going to see that while the police may have some bad elements, they won’t tolerate these guys in the least. And there aren’t just police to confront these guys, there is a real militia, the National Gaurd, that can step in if these folks start shooting people. If it does happen, it will be few and far between. Oh, they will threaten and they will bluster and then they’ll go back home and abuse their radios.
Getting news sources to be rational about these folks is tough. Rational thinking about them doesn’t get listeners. Fear-mongering does. But we should try and put them in some perspective.
Start with an NPR listen. Experts are clear, the milita written into the Constitution is a well-regulated milita. That well-regulated means a militia is controlled by the government for the good of the country. Indeed, all 50 states have provisions that specifically state that these militias are extra-judicial. They don’t have the right to patrol, they don’t have the right to do anything other than cosplay in the woods.
The reason these laws are in place is the Civil War. No one wanted private groups of people riding around killing folks at the end of the war so they specifically defined such groups as being illegal and all states incorporated that language into law.
What this means on the ground: well, some of these guys might show up and try to bully. That isn’t the same as shooting someone. That’s the reason that most mass shootings are one guy. It takes a certain disconnect from rational behaior to shoot innocent people. Getting that in a large number of people is hard. That doesn’t mean an accident can’t happen. But it isn’t likely that thirty guys with AR-15s are going to show up with the intent to kill.
Even the attempt to kidnap Gretchen Witmer was only a couple of inept bunglers. Quickly stopped. It’s a lot harder to plan a shoot up with lots of folks, and then to implement that slaughter, than most folks are willing to accept.
In Houston alone there are dozens of early polling locations. On Nov 3rd, there will be 100s. Where are these guys going to go? Well, they have to chose a place where they won’t shoot their own. That means a Black neighborhood or well educated white neighborhood (they are racists afterall). Does anyone think that they guys are going to drive enmass into such an area and start shooting? Really?
So no, don’t spend a lot of time worring. If you see a guy with an AR-15 or similar near your polling place. Call the police, switch locations, have a cup of coffee till the guy gets bored, but don’t let it impact what you are going to do.