I would like to continue this series that demonstrates how districts would look like come 2020 redistricting. As usual, I drew the maps using Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) and is based on the 2018 census data.
If you have already read my earlier post, please skip ahead to the state maps. But if not, please read first the explainer below.
The following in decreasing priority is the criteria I imposed when I drew the maps:
1. Districts should be virtually equal in population, compact, contiguous, and free of holes.
2. Create VRA districts (majority-minority districts or if such will not be reasonably compact, minority-influence districts).
3. Respect communities of interest.
4. Adhere to political subdivisions. Follow county lines, and as far as practicable, municipal lines. Minimize county splits. A county smaller than a district shall not be split between more than two districts. There should be a commensurate number of districts wholly within a county if a county can accommodate within its boundaries a whole district or more. This should not be a problem in New England, West Virginia, and Iowa.
Consideration of partisan data is prohibited except where required by federal law, as is favoring, or disfavoring an incumbent, candidate for office, or political party. However, since this is a political website, I would discuss current partisan data but only limited to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) and 2016 Presidential election results. For disclosure, I would also include DRA’s Analytics Ratings which would be based on PVI unless otherwise stated.
If the current partisan outlook of the map seems to be unfavorable to you, then I’m sorry but I’m not bulging. Don’t cry bloody “Matthismander” or “Judicialmander”, as if partisan maps would be fair. Please remember that coalitions do change and gerrymander could backfire and turn out to be dummymander. But, if you think there could be a way of drawing districts that better reflect communities of interest while following my other criteria, then let’s have a healthy discussion about that.
While I retained the district numbers as per norm, I also gave names to the districts. This is like the system employed in many other national legislatures. I always said to myself while mapping that “If I can’t name it, I won’t do it”. I aspire that people could easily identify their own district and as a result, readily know who is their representative. This will give them a better sense of belonging and accountability. You can suggest better names for the districts.
I have already made maps for all states with at least two districts. However, I would discuss maps by region, starting with the one with the most chronic gerrymandering problems. So, I will start with the South. For Part 2, I will discuss GA, NC, and SC.
GEORGIA
Georgia will not add another district for now. Instead, it will retain its 14 districts. The state is 53% white and 33% black. It has a PVI of R+5 and it voted for Trump 51-46.
PART 1: Georgia outside Atlanta
GA-01: Savannah — Georgia Coast
This district, anchored by Savannah, covers the Sea Islands and areas of Georgia along the Atlantic coast. It is 59% white and 32% black. It has a PVI of R+9 and it voted for Trump 56-41. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler) will be safe here. Safe R.
GA-02: southwestern Georgia
This rural black district covers southwestern farmlands of Georgia. A 96-year-old peanut farmer and carpenter from Plains they call Jimmy Carter lives here. It also includes Colombus, Macon, and Albany. It is 51% black and 42% white. It has a PVI of D+4, and it voted for Clinton only 53-45. Blue Dog Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) may be a good fit in the district. However, the district could be further competitive on a Republican cycle or if it swings further towards GOP. Safe D for Bishop, for now, Likely D otherwise.
GA-03: west-central Georgia
This district includes the area between the suburbs of Atlanta, Colombus, and Macon. It also corresponds to much of the Three Rivers Region. Interestingly, the district includes Butts county, which is where Stranger Things and a number of other shows and films with that peach is set. It is 68% white and 24% black. It has a PVI of R+20 and it voted for Trump 67-30. Drew Ferguson (R-West Point) is safe for reelection. Safe R.
GA-08: south-central Georgia
This district encompasses the central to the southern area of the state. It includes Warner Robins and Valdosta. The district also includes one of four Georgia’s breakfast counties: Coffee. Bacon is in GA-01, Crisp and Early are in GA-02. It is 60% white and 31% black. It has a PVI of R+17 and it voted for Trump 66-32. Austin Scott (R-Tifton) is safe for reelection. Safe R.
GA-09: Gainesville — northern Georgia
This district, anchored by not this Gainesville, includes the Blue Ridge and northern Georgia mountains. It is 76% white and 17% black. It is a contender for the most GOP district, with a PVI of R+31 and Trump dominated here 78-19. The Republican nominee here is safe for reelection. Safe R.
GA-10: Athens — northeastern Georgia
This northeastern Georgia district is based on Athens and its surrounding areas. It is home to UGA. It is 68% white and 18% black. It has a PVI of R+19 and Trump won here 65-32. Jody Hice (R-Bethlehem) is safe for reelection. Safe R.
GA-12: Augusta — east-central Georgia
This district in eastern Georgia is anchored by Augusta. The district hosts The Masters golf tournament. The blacks may have influence here, as it is 53% white and 40% black. It has a PVI of R+5 and it voted for Trump 53-45. Rick Allen (R-Augusta) may face competitive elections from former Rep. John Barrow (D-Augusta) or any other Blue Dog politician. Lean R to Likely R.
GA-14: northwestern Georgia
This district goes from the western suburbs of Atlanta to the northwestern corner of the state. It is geographically similar to Georgia’s Historic High Country region. It is 71% white and 20% black. It has a PVI of R+21 and Trump won here 68-29. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville) lives here but this district is more similar to the district where You-Know-Who, that conspiracy theorist will be the presumptive representative. Safe R.
PART 2: Atlanta
GA-04: DeKalb
This is virtually coextensive with DeKalb county. It is 55% black and 29% white. It has a PVI of D+29 and it overwhelmingly voted for Clinton 80-17. Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia) would have very safe general reelections here. Safe D.
GA-05: Atlanta
This is district covers Fulton county outside the old Milton county. It is dominated by the state capital, Atlanta. The district covers Georgia Tech and Emory. It is 58% black and 32% white. It has a PVI of D+28 and it voted for Clinton 80-17. The Democratic nominee would be safe here. Safe D.
GA-06: Cobb
This suburban district is almost analogous to Cobb county. It is 52% white and 30% black. This legacy GOP district has a PVI of R+4 and it voted for Clinton 49-46. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) would have a friendlier but still competitive seat. Maybe Lean D for now for McBath, Tossup otherwise.
GA-07: Gwinnett
This very diverse, suburban district covers much of Gwinnett county. It is 34% white, 31% black, 23% Hispanic, and 12% Asian. This legacy GOP district has a PVI of just D+2 but it voted for Clinton 55-41. The Democratic nominee will be favored here now. Likely D.
GA-11: northern Atlanta
This suburban district covers the northern suburbs of Atlanta. It is confined to Forsyth, Cherokee, and the old Milton (annexed by Fulton) counties. The district includes Alpharetta, not that Roswell, not these Cantons, and Cumming — whose mayor made a surprising announcement. I never knew that this district could be so 気持ち up until now. It is 70% white, 11% Asian, and 10% Hispanic. This GOP district has a PVI of R+23 but it swung wildly to the left in 2016. Still, it voted for Trump 64-31. Loudermilk lives outside the district but will be safe for reelection here, for now. He may also run in GA-14 and challenge the tinfoil hat wearer in the primary. Or maybe, She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named is the one who will run here as she is from the area. Safe R for now, but if the leftward swing continues, this will be a reach seat for Democrats.
GA-13: southern Atlanta
This suburban district covers the immediate southern suburbs of Atlanta. The district covers most of the world's busiest airport, ATL. It is 57% black and 30% white. This district has a PVI of D+13 and it voted for Clinton 64-34. David Scott (D-Atlanta) always lived outside the district but will run here. However, he may face stronger primary challenges than he used to have. Safe D.
GA DRA Analytics Ratings:
Proportionality: 55. Splitting: 83, Compactness: 66, Minority: 90, Competitiveness: 25.
NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina will finally add its 14th district after it being the 436th seat in the last census’ reapportionment. The state is 63% white and 23% black. It has been swingy since 2008, with a PVI of R+3 and Trump winning it 50-46.
The state is notoriously gerrymandered by its Republican-led state legislature this decade, to the point that its maps were struck down and have to be redrawn twice. The mapmaker himself confessed that they gerrymandered the map for outright partisan motives. This map hopefully rectifies the abomination made.
NC-01: Inner Banks
This rural and economically poor district covers much of the Inner Banks. It includes Greenville and Rocky Mount. This majority-minority district is 49% white and 43% black. It has a PVI of D+5 and it voted for Clinton 54-43. G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson) and Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) both live here. Unless they want an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup, Murphy will run in NC-03. Butterfield may not be completely safe in this district that may become more competitive with the right candidate or if the district swings further to the right. Likely D.
NC-02: Raleigh
This urban district is centered around the state capital, Raleigh. It is home to North Carolina State University. The district is 68% white and 23% black. It has a PVI of D+9 and Clinton won here 59-35. The Democratic nominee is safe here in the general election. Safe D.
NC-03: Outer Banks
This district encompasses the Outer Banks. The district is the site of beaches, shipwrecks, and lighthouses, the most famous of which is Cape Hatteras. The lost colony of Roanoke, and the site of the first successful aircraft flight by the Wright Brothers, Kitty Hawk, are here. The district is 67% white and 22% black. It has a PVI of R+12 and it voted for Trump 61-36. Murphy lives outside the district but will run here. Safe R.
NC-04: Research Triangle
This academic and technology-driven district covers much of the Research Triangle outside of Raleigh. Two of the three major universities in the area are here — Duke and UNC. It is 53% white, 26% black, and 11% Hispanic. It has a PVI of D+17 and Clinton won here 68-28. Octogenarian Rep. David Price (D-Chapel Hill), who served here almost continuously save for one term since 1983, will be safe for the general election as long as he wants to run. Safe D.
NC-05: northwestern North Carolina
This district covers the northwestern areas of North Carolina from the Appalachian Mountains to the Piedmont Plateau. The district is 67% white and 22% black. It has a PVI of R+21 and it voted for Trump 70-37. Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk), will be safe here even if she wants to run as an octogenarian come redistricting. Safe R.
NC-06: Piedmont Triad
This metropolitan district is based in the Piedmont Triad with Greensboro and Winston-Salem at its opposite poles. Wake Forest relocated here in 1834. The district is 53% white and 33% black. It has a PVI of D+7 and Clinton won here 57-38. The Democratic nominee is safe here in the general election. Safe D.
NC-07: southeastern North Carolina
This agricultural district encompasses the southeastern portion of North Carolina from Wilmington to Goldsboro. Bladen County, where voting fraud on behalf of the GOP happened in 2018 which in effect invalidated the NC-09 congressional race, is redistricted here. The district is 68% white and 21% black. It has a PVI of R+8 and it voted for Trump 56-41. David Rouzer (R-Wilmington), is marginally safe here for reelection. Likely R to Safe R.
NC-08: Fayetteville — Sandhills
This district, anchored by Fayetteville, covers the Sandhills region of North Carolina. The district is majority-minority at 46% white, 33% black, and 11% native, mostly Lumbee. It is swingy with a PVI of D+2 with Clinton narrowly winning it 50-47. No incumbent representatives live here. Tossup.
NC-09: Charlotte
This urban district covers much of the minority areas of Charlotte and the rest of Mecklenburg county. It is impressive how much the area has grown over the past century, largely due to the Bank of America. This majority-minority district is 43% black, 35% white, and 16% Hispanic. It has a PVI of D+20 and Clinton won here 69-27. Incumbent Rep. Alma Adams (D–Charlotte) transferred here from Greensboro in 2016. Safe D.
NC-10: western Charlotte
This map rectifies the mess made by the most recent map and the district reverts to the western suburbs of Charlotte. The district is composed of Gaston, Lincoln, Iredell, Catawba, and Cleveland counties. Thankfully, no counties are split. It is 76% white, and 14% black. It has a PVI of R+18 and Trump won here 66-30. Patrick McHenry (R–Cherryville) is safe here. Safe R.
NC-11: Asheville — Mountains
This district in the Appalachians is anchored by the hippy city of Asheville. Like in NC-10, it has no county splits. The district is 85% white. It has a PVI of R+8 and Trump won it 55-40. However, Democrats are competitive here down-ballot. The Republican nominee here is favored but not safe for the elections. Lean R to Likely R.
NC-12: eastern Charlotte
This seat covers the immediate eastern suburbs to the nonblack areas in the core of Charlotte. It is 71% white, and 14% black. It has a PVI of R+8 and Trump won here 52-43. Dan Bishop (R–Charlotte) and Richard Hudson (R–Concord) live inside the district. In any case, the Republican nominee is favored here for now. Likely R.
NC-13: outer Triangle
This district goes back to the Research Triangle, but this time, it covers the suburbs and exurbs outside the core areas of the Triangle in NC-02 and NC-04. It is home to Elon Musk University. It is 66% white, and 20% black. It has a PVI of R+9 and Trump won here 55-41. Ted Budd (R–Advance) is marginally safe here. Likely R to Safe R.
NC-14: southern Triad
This new district covers areas to the south of Winston-Salem and Greensboro. It includes High Point, Salisbury, and Lexington. The district is 73% white and 16% black. It has a PVI of R+18 and Trump won here 66-31. Hudson and retiring Rep. Mark Walker (R-Greensboro) may both run here although both are from outside the district. Safe R.
NC DRA Analytics Ratings:
Proportionality: 68. Splitting: 78, Compactness: 59, Minority: 75, Competitiveness: 16.
SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina will still have seven districts. It is 64% white and 28% black. It has a PVI of R+8 and it voted for Trump 55-41.
This map is a real joy to draw because every district fits like a glove with the geographical and cultural regions of South Carolina.
SC-01: Charleston — Low Country
This district in the Low Country is based on Charleston and its surrounding areas. The Citadel is here and so is Fort Sumter, where the Civil War began. It is 71% white and 21% black. It has a PVI of R+8 and Trump won here 53-42. Joe Cunningham (D-Charleston) would still be struggling for his political survival in this district. Tossup with Cunningham, Likely R to Safe R otherwise.
SC-02: Columbia
This district iteration is long overdue. It covers the core of South Carolina capital Columbia’s metropolitan area. The district is part of the greater Midlands region of the state. The University of South Carolina is here. It is 56% white and 35% black. It is swingy with EVEN PVI and it voted for Clinton 49-46. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) will have a battle of his political life in this district and will constantly say “You Lie!” to his opponents. Tossup.
SC-03: Upper Savannah Valley
The district encompasses communities in the upper Savannah River valley along the state’s border with Georgia. Clemson is here. It is 73% white and 20% black. It has a PVI of R+19 and Trump won here 66-30. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is safe for reelection. Safe R.
SC-04: Greenville and Spartanburg
The district is composed of all of Greenville and most of Spartanburg counties. The district is the core of the bigger Upstate region of South Carolina. It is 68% white and 21% black. it is the primordial Republican stronghold in the state. it has a PVI of R+14 and it voted for Trump 59-35. William Timmons (R-Greenville) is safe here. Safe R.
SC-05: Olde English District
This district roughly corresponds to the state's Olde English District. It is also the district represented by the one who got busted by the #metoo in the House of Cards. It is 69% white and 24% black. This ancestrally Yellow Dog district has a PVI of R+13 and carried by Trump 61-35. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) will sail through reelections here unless he gets scares like that in the 2017 special election. Safe R.
SC-06: South Carolina Black Belt
This constituency encompasses much of South Carolina’s Black Belt. This T-Rex-shaped district has arms strangling Charleston to grab its black areas. This majority-minority district is 48% black and 46% white. It has a PVI of D+7 and it voted for Clinton 55-41. Octogenarian House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-Columbia) lives outside this district but will run here if he wants to extend his three-decade streak. Safe D.
SC-07: Pee Dee
This district is coextensive with South Carolina’s Pee Dee region. The district’s largest city is Florence and it is a plantation and retirement hub. However, it is best known for the Grand Strand, a 97 km. (60-mi) beach island along the Atlantic coast. It is famous for the Spring Breakers’ destination Myrtle Beach, better known to the locals as Dirty Myrtle. It is also notorious as the epicenter of Ohio snowbird migration, flocking towards it, and neighboring areas of Low Country like Hilton Head Island.
With regard to demographics, it is 64% white and 30% black. It has has a stable genius of a PVI of R+9. I mean, it has a politically stagnant voting record, look it up. It voted for Trump 58-39. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach) is safe for reelection. Safe R.
SC DRA Analytics Ratings:
Proportionality: 42. Splitting: 70, Compactness: 37, Minority: 72, Competitiveness: 23.
Previous: Part 1 — DE, MD, VA, WV
Next: Part 3 — AL, AR, LA, MS